NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LHZ463 Expires:202311282300;;547723 Fzus63 Kdtx 281446 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 946 am est Tue nov 28 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis..A cold front moves southward lake huron this morning, shifting wind to the northwest and maintaining gusty but likely sub-gale conditions through the day. A weak ridge of high pressure then builds in this evening, followed by a clipper system on Wednesday. Milder air then works in late Wednesday into Thursday.
lhz462>464-282300- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 946 am est Tue nov 28 2023
Rest of today..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the morning...then becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the east. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 281723 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1223 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023


AVIATION

Clear skies early this afternoon give way to increasing strato-cu as northwest low level flow advects lake moisture into SE MI. High MVFR to borderline VFR ceilings are likely initially with this cloud cover before diurnal mixing is expected raise heights into low VFR territory. MVFR ceilings are possible again by late evening as deeper layer westerly flow establishes itself resulting in MVFR lake- induced cloud currently confined over west MI being dislodged east into the area. These clouds eventually vacate overnight with mid- cloud quickly filling in ahead of an approaching weak clipper system. Track of this system favors light snow shower chances mainly north of the region with best chances locally over mbS, though some limited potential as from south as FNT- have only included mention at mbS in current TAFs however. Main aviation impacts instead are another period over lowering ceilings toward (or into for the northern sites) MVFR and renewed breezy southwest winds gusting 20- 25kts Wednesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION...

High amplitude troughing in residence today, lending to a period of deeper layer northwest flow that ensures another day of well below average temperatures. 850 mb temperatures projected to bottom out in the -16c range early day, with little recovery through the heating cycle. This will support highs mainly in the upper 20s. Standard diurnal uptick in gustiness to around 25 mph. Some early day single digit wind chill readings peaking in the teens this afternoon.
Backing low level flow with time will draw the southern lake Michigan moisture plume back across the area through the day.
Moisture depth lacks at this stage to suggest a more organized response, but pockets of light snow showers or flurries remain plausible given a moist layer still fixated within the dgz.
Potential for some minor accumulation focused over the thumb and northern Saginaw valley region as ongoing lake moisture flux off northern lake Huron may allow a few streamers to survive the downstream trek into the area.

Pattern of warm air advection will emerge tonight immediately downstream of a low amplitude wave on pace to traverse the northern great lakes late tonight and early Wednesday. Brief period of meaningful forced ascent via a combination of moist isentropic ascent and dcva set to accompany this height fall center across northern and central lower Mi. Forecast trajectory will position areas generally along/north of the I-69 corridor favorably to witness a brief period of light snow development. Main window centered between 09z and 15z Wednesday morning. Accumulation potential capped at half inch or less given limited residence time and overall intensity. Advective process struggles to gain greater traction Wednesday amidst the ongoing height falls and lack of greater depth to southwest winds. Temperatures still solidly below average.

Increasing southwest flow within the background of building large scale upper heights will translate into greater warming through the column Thursday. This occurs as attention turns to both a northern stream wave shearing across the northern great lakes and a deeper southern stream wave ejecting into the southern plains. The former will effectively draw an attendant cold front into lower Michigan sometime late Thursday into Thursday night. Moisture quality will initially remain modest along the advancing frontal slope, but improving northward moisture transport downstream of the southern feature may eventually intersect the boundary and offer some rain potential by Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably for Friday, as the model solution space works to resolve trajectory and magnitude of the system ejecting out of the plains as it relates to positioning of the frontal zone. This offers some difference yet in projected moisture quality, thermal profile and placement of the greatest ascent. Outgoing forecast will maintain a predominant rain precipitation type at this stage, acknowledging there remains a subset of the ensemble solution space that carries a colder scenario with snow/mix as a ptype and some solutions that hold the bulk of the precipitation to the south.

MARINE...

Wind direction shifts to the northwest this morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air works in from the north. This maintains the gusty conditions over the central Great Lakes with scattered to numerous snow showers. Probability for gales remains low today, but gusts to 25 to 30 knots can be expected especially over central and southern Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters through this afternoon. Winds taper off slightly from late afternoon into the evening leaving relatively quieter conditions tonight ahead of a clipper system set to track in on Wednesday. A strong low-level jet will precede this system with gusty southwest winds strengthening to around 25 to 30 knots for a brief period Wednesday morning. Saginaw Bay stands a chance to see an hour or so of gusts to 35 knot gales, but will forego a watch at this stage due to the expected brevity of any such gusts. Milder air works in later Wednesday with southwest winds remaining gusty to 20 to 25 knots. This pattern holds through Thursday before the next cold front moves through Thursday night, shifting winds back to the northwest for the late week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ442-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ444.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,