Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 4:56PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:15 PM EST (20:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201912122115;;241144 Fzus63 Kdtx 121440 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 940 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure, averaging 30.50 inches, departs east of the region this morning. Low pressure, 30.00 inches, then moves into northern lake michigan this evening. This low will dissipate after it passes over the straits of mackinac late tonight. A diffuse pressure pattern will then dominate the region for Friday into Saturday with a broad surface trough in place as a low pressure system moves up the eastern seaboard. Lhz362-363-462-463-122115- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- 940 am est Thu dec 12 2019
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tonight..South winds to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow in the evening. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of rain. A chance of snow late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain early in the morning. A chance of snow in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the southeast early in the evening...then veering to the west in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 121735 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

AVIATION.

GOES-E visible satellite imagery depicts a temporarily hole within a BKN high cloud deck which overspread much of SE MI during the morning hours. Higher humidity values aloft will hold through the rest of today before an axis of drier air fills in overnight for the southern terminals. A synoptic flow transition is underway (from anticyclonic to cyclonic) as high pressure pushes eastward into Chesapeake Bay while a low to the west lifts northeast, aimed at the Straits of Mackinaw. This has tightened the gradient causing winds to pick up and remain southerly this afternoon. Also in play is a LLJ that will brush the western TAF sites, but stable low-level air will limit the efficiency of mixing, moderating the potential for gusts. Surface winds drop into the single digits overnight as 1700 ft jet enhanced winds exceed 40 knots leading to an extended period of LLWS concern. Dry VFR conditions continue into Friday with sustained southerly flow as a dry warm front lifts into central Lower Michigan.

For DTW . VFR with LLWS concerns overnight. IFR conditions will likely be required with the next TAF update as the column saturates after 00Z Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for LLWS overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 346 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

DISCUSSION .

An active pattern is setting up for the coming week but locally it appears we dodge much of the strongest forcing leaving us with a lower confidence forecast for some periods of wet weather. The first system is already coming together over the northern Plains as a compact and low amplitude mid level shortwave induces a surface low that will then swing up through the Straits tonight. Surface high pressure combined with mid level ridging developing in response to the digging trough will lead to a dry and quiet day around SE MI. Winds out of the southwest persist through the day as the warm front comes together over northern MI. This will allow temps to rise back to near normal this afternoon in the mid/upper 30s. The outlier to the dry forecast could be across the far north, Saginaw Valley northward, where a portion of the developing warm frontal forcing band may clip it. The warm sector should push far enough north to keep the area dry through the day with the center of the low then passing just north overnight. This could bring the deeper moisture and broad forcing necessary to produce some precip. Thermal profile is deeply saturated between 0 and -10C with only hints that the top of the moist layer reaches the DGZ. This would suggest more liquid precip than snow. Currently low temps are forecast down into the low/mid 30s so looks warm enough to mitigate any light freezing rain/drizzle potential late tonight into friday morning.

Better chance of precip will come over the weekend as a strong southern stream wave lifting up the east coast attempts to phase with a northern stream trough that will swing through the Great Lakes on Saturday. Model consistency has been good regarding this complex pattern but that doesn't lead to a high confidence forecast locally. We will lack stronger forcing mechanisms to key in on for timing better chances for precip but instead will fall under the broader umbrella of anticyclonic flow of the merging systems. With so much in question regarding thermal profile and timing/amount of phasing, opted to keep generic rain/snow mix messaging friday and Saturday. Longwave trough axis will approach with surface cold front Sunday afternoon which will at least bring cold enough air to switch us to all snow if there remains enough moisture to precipitate. Will need to keep an eye out for some lake effect showers developing Sunday but at this point the wind profile does not appear strong enough to pull good moisture across the state so likely would be dealing with flurries.

Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the jet that will be responsible for this storm isn't set to reach the NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really start converging on a track.

MARINE .

Westerly and southwesterly winds will back to the south this morning and increase through the day as a surface ridge moves off to the eastern Great Lakes and a developing low pressure system lifts into northern Lake Michigan by this evening. The gradient will tighten through the afternoon as strong warm advection sweeps over, with just enough mixing and fetch over southern and central Lake Huron to allow for southerly gales by this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the open waters, while a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the Lake Huron nearshore waters. The low will bring likely snow across northern Lake Huron today that will eventually turn to rain tonight as warmer air moves in. Winds taper off by tomorrow morning as the low weakens in the vicinity of the Straits. Broad troughing remains over the region Friday into Saturday, with light southerly winds Friday afternoon eventually flipping to light northerly on Saturday. A surge of arctic air will then move back into the region on Sunday morning, leading to unsettled marine conditions once again.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 22 mi75 min S 19 G 22 29°F 1045.7 hPa (-5.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi57 min SSE 17 G 22 28°F 33°F1026.5 hPa20°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi63 min S 14 G 19 32°F 1027.7 hPa21°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi63 min 33°F 1028.1 hPa
KP58 47 mi84 min S 8.9 G 21 27°F 1028.2 hPa18°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi19 minS 1510.00 miOvercast31°F21°F70%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9W6W4W5W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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