Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:38PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:00 PM EDT (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201910230815;;113130 Fzus63 Kdtx 222001 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 401 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Strong low pressure system, deepening to 29.10 inches, will continue to rotate into northwest ontario today bringing southwest gales to lake huron. This low will gradually weaken to 29.30 inches and lift northward toward james bay on Wednesday. High pressure, averaging 30.20 inches, begins to build into the region late week bringing lighter winds. Lhz462>464-230815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 401 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
.gale warning in effect until midnight edt tonight...
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 35 knot gales until early morning. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of showers until early evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230003
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
803 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019

Aviation
A large low pressure system just NW of lake superior maintains a
gusty SW wind pattern across lower michigan tonight. The wind pulls
colder air into the region to help lift ceiling intoVFR but also
keeps rain showers activated downstream of lake michigan. This
produces stretches of MVFR mainly affecting the mbs area tonight
through Wednesday morning. Otherwise,VFR ceiling becomes scattered
toward the dtw corridor while wind gusts soften at all locations
during the night. Gusts return to around 25 knots by late morning
through Wednesday afternoon and are the primary aviation concern as
clouds diminish south to north through the day.

For dtw... Ceiling trends above 5000 ft during the evening and then
clouds become scattered overnight. SW wind gusts around 20 knots
hold until later in the night when stretches of clear sky allow
diminished gustiness through mid Wednesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
discussion...

upper trough axis extending south from upper low pressure center
tracking across lake superior will progress across the region late
today through the first part of tonight. This will maintain some
degree of shower coverage through the evening and to a lesser degree
into the overnight hours, particularly over the northern half to
third of the forecast area where the degree of moisture and forcing
are most conducive to shower activity. As the upper low lifts north
towards hudson bay and eventually becomes an open wave, expect any
remaining shower activity to focus well north of the area by late
tonight on through Wednesday.

The boundary layer will remain well mixed through the overnight
hours and the pressure gradient around this system remains rather
strong. Expect wind gust of 25 to 30 mph to hold through a bulk of
the evening hours with 20 mph or better gusts persisting overnight
as well. This will keep overnight temperatures somewhat in check
even as the coldest lobe of this glancing blow of polar air works
through lower michigan. Minimum temperatures should settle into the
upper 30s lower 40s. Upper temperatures a degree or two Wednesday as
cold air advection ebbs back to neutral or even weak warm air
advection. With mostly sunny skies over southern areas, expect high
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s while lingering clouds
far north keep temperatures in the lower 50s.

A fast moving shortwave will race through the area Wednesday night
around the base of the upper trough as it is lifting north northeast
of the region. Precipitation will be light with this system given
the lack of moisture, but still expect some showers to develop by
evening and persist into parts of the overnight. Another southern
stream wave may also impinge on portions of the region by Thursday
night, but confidence in this is rather low at this point given
a fair degree of model discrepancy within the 12z cycle.

The long term forecast begins with weak anticyclonic westerly
surface flow Friday morning as a surface ridge maintains high
pressure centered over the eastern plains. Some model disagreement
exists in the upper level pattern as the GFS and ECMWF are out of
phase given a digging mid level trough at 500 mb with the former and
an elongated ridge axis at the same level with the latter. Given the
vicinity of a weak moisture gradient through central ohio, allowed
for slgt chc pops along the SE us can border through Friday evening.

Temps will run several degrees below normal in the upper 40s to
lower 50s during the day, dropping into the low to mid 30s overnight
after skies clear out.

Divergent surface kinematic field develops on Saturday over the tri-
state border facilitating a shift to a warm advection pattern under
s SE flow conditions. Temps should be a few degrees higher than
Friday as afternoon highs cross into the mid 50s. Meanwhile, a very
stark upper level flow shift will reorient mid-upper level winds
zonally early Saturday morning before becoming NW after daylight.

This will facilitate a very dry column with 850 mb 12z dewpoint
depressions exceeding 30 c. CWA wide, pwats will be AOB 0.25 inches
(bottom 10th percentile) making for a precip-free day with weak
winds aided by a deep (200 mb) inversion above the 900mb level. Low
clouds will develop overnight as 900 mb moisture advection saturates
a thin low level layer helping to keep lows a degree or two above 40
f.

A warm front lifts through on Sunday with resultant warm sector
temps approaching 60 as a deep low crosses into the hudson bay over
northern canada. This will lead to some overrunning precip during
the day before an associated cold front kicks through early in the
evening. Kept pops at chc or lower for now, but will increase as
needed as the forecast timestamps shrinks. Coast-to-coast polar jet
will get pushed just south of the CWA late on Monday, but mainly on
Tuesday with a decent 2 pvu anomaly pivoting and spinning through
the northern plains and into the great lakes. Conditions may be
chilly enough by Tuesday morning for a brief period of snowflakes
over the far northwestern counties as temps approach freezing around
sunrise.

Marine...

a deep low pressure system centered over lake superior will continue
to impact the weather locally as it slowly lift northward through
ontario tonight. A tight southwesterly gradient will persist over
the area through Wednesday with cold air advection keeping unstable
conditions over the waters. Wind gusts to 35 knots will continue
until midnight before relaxing a bit later tonight allowing the
current gale warning to expire. High pressure will begin to build
into the region Wednesday keeping the gradient flow elevated with
gusts to near 25 knots across much of eastern lakes. This will
likely necessitating small craft advisories across most of the
nearshore waters. The high will then be overhead Thursday into the
weekend resulting in more favorable conditions over the waters.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for miz063-070.

Lake huron... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lhz362-363-421-422-
462>464.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Dg kk
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi61 min S 16 G 19 49°F 53°F4 ft1005.4 hPa (+2.4)
PSCM4 22 mi61 min SSW 12 G 16 48°F 1023.4 hPa (+2.1)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi43 min SW 13 G 17 48°F 51°F1004.6 hPa40°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 18 50°F 1006.1 hPa39°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi43 min 50°F 1006.3 hPa
KP58 47 mi70 min SSW 8 G 21 50°F 1003.1 hPa39°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi65 minSW 10 G 2110.00 miOvercast46°F40°F81%1004.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E4E5E5E5SE4SE7SE8
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2 days agoSE3SE5SE5SE5SE5SE6SE6SE4SE3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW7W4NW6CalmSW3W4CalmE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.