Monday, July22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:03PM Monday July 22, 2019 6:21 PM EDT (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 10:32AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201907230815;;471379 Fzus63 Kdtx 221955 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 355 Pm Edt Mon Jul 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A broad region of high pressure, 30.20 inches, remains centered over the plains tomorrow. This maintains moderate northerly wind and allows a reinforcing cold front to move from northern ontario across the central great lakes later tomorrow. The plains high pressure system then builds eastward into the region Wednesday through Friday. Lhz462>464-230815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 355 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon veering to the south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221949
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
349 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019

Discussion
Leading edge of a midlevel trough is moving southeast through se
michigan this afternoon on the heels of an upper jet streak moving
into new england. This is bringing a reinforcing surge of cool
northerly flow into this evening with 850mb temps expected to settle
to around 9 or 10 c. Abundant dry air in the column and good
isentropic downglide will help clear any lingering clouds out later
today and lead to clear skies tonight. Winds will weaken but
probably not go calm given the northerly gradient in place, but
still a decent setup for radiational cooling. Will see lows fall to
the lower 50s for most of the area and mid to upper 50s in the urban
heat island of metro detroit. Northerly flow over the long fetch of
lake huron will continue to produce hazardous conditions for small
craft along the northern and eastern thumb shoreline into this
evening, as will northeast wind in saginaw bay. Minor lakeshore
flooding is possible in these areas into this evening as well.

Tuesday will see a quick rebound in temperatures with ample early
day insolation. The boundary layer will deepen to about 800mb by the
afternoon and highs will be comfortable in the mid to upper 70s. The
main story for tomorrow will be driven by the shortwave currently
over western ontario. This energy will drop through central lower
michigan during peak heating, with the cooler air aloft (500mb temps
dipping to around -17 c) contributing to good midlevel lapse rates
of about 7 c km. Instability will be respectable with 500 to 1000
j kg of MLCAPE likely to develop by the afternoon - highest values
west of us-23. It looks like just enough moisture will accompany the
wave to lead to a high-end chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms possible as well. With the cold air overhead, expect
wet bulb zero heights to fall to around 8kft which may allow some
small hail to reach the ground with the strongest updrafts.

Convective activity wanes with the loss of daytime heating, leading
into a mostly quiet Tuesday night with skies clearing again. Lows
look to fall to the mid 50s for most of the region.

A secondary wave will dive into the great lakes Tuesday night and
push the midlevel trough off to the east, allowing heights to
rebound over the region into Wednesday. A ridge of surface high
pressure will build throughout the day and dry weather will prevail
with light winds. The coolest air will move off to the east and
another day with plenty of sunshine will allow highs to climb to
around 80 degrees. Lows Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer
than Tuesday night.

Tranquil conditions are expected during the first part of the
extended period as surface high pressure with upper level ridging
resides over the eastern midwest Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will be on the rise for SE mi starting Thursday as warm air
advection ramps up under modified S SW flow. By Saturday, h5 heights
will once again build to around 588 dam which correlates with near
surface MAX temps returning to near 90 degrees. H8 temps also
support this warming trend with 12z potential temps above 300k.

Depending on the evolution of a slowly progressing longwave trough,
isolated portions of the tri-cities and thumb areas may see a few
showers or thunderstorms on Saturday, but current guidance suggests
the axis may not deepen much beyond northern lower michigan. The
potential exists for a few showers storms on Sunday as shortwave
energy works through the base of the trough in the presence of
elevated moisture as dewpoints press into the upper 60s. Next
opportunity for a more dramatic cool-down comes late Monday or early
Tuesday of next week as a cold front translates along a better
defined baroclinic zone producing more widespread coverage of
showers ahead of the boundary and northwest flow in its wake.

Marine
Ongoing low level cold air advection in advance of high pressure
expanding across the upper midwest is resulting in unstable over-
lake conditions. This is leading to gusty northerly winds and
hazardous conditions for small craft across southern lake huron. The
gradient will strengthen a bit this evening, which will sustain the
gusty northerly winds into the night. Winds and waves will slowly
decrease on Tuesday as the gradient relaxes. Light north-northwest
winds will persist into the day Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1241 pm edt Mon jul 22 2019
aviation...

there is an ongoing push of colder air across lower mi along and
behind a mid level trough axis. While there is a region of mid high
level clouds associated with the mid level trough, diurnal heating
within the cooler low level airmass has led to the development of
sct-bkn cumulus; with bases ranging from 2k ft up to 4k ft. The
growth of the daytime boundary layer will lead to an upward trend in
the bases of the CU during the course of the afternoon.

For dtw... A northerly gradient and increase in the wind speeds with
daytime heating this afternoon will sustain winds around 10 knots
from 350 to 020 degrees. There will be a tendency for wind speeds to
decrease after sunset, although an increasing northerly gradient
will inhibit boundary layer decoupling, thus keeping at least a light
wind into the night.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz048-049-
055-063.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048-
049-054-055-063.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Tf kk
marine... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
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at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi141 min NNW 19 G 21 66°F 70°F4 ft1013 hPa (-0.1)
PSCM4 22 mi81 min N 22 G 27 69°F 1032.2 hPa (-0.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi51 min N 15 G 20 68°F 74°F1014.9 hPa52°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi51 min N 21 G 26 69°F 1013.8 hPa58°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi51 min 72°F 1013.8 hPa
KP58 47 mi30 min 4.1 72°F 1014.2 hPa50°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi25 minN 12 G 1810.00 miFair71°F43°F37%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4CalmCalmCalmNE3N7
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N4N4CalmCalmNW6NW5N6N3NW9N9
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1 day agoSE7S10S6E5CalmW4W4W4NW5W5NW3N7N5N4N8N7N5NW7NE4N6N6SW4CalmE5
2 days agoW4SW4SW6SW10SW6SW4SW5SW6SW6W7SW7SW9
G16
W4W3CalmW4NW4SW4NW5NW6W3NW5NE4NW11
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.