Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:32 AM EDT (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 11:25AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201908212015;;971078 Fzus63 Kdtx 210754 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 354 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.80 inches, will develop over northern ontario this morning, then move into southern quebec by evening while deepening to 29.60 inches. This system will drive a cold front across lake huron late this afternoon then into lake erie tonight. High pressure, 30.30 inches, will build into northern ontario Thursday into Friday. This high will influence the great lakes through the weekend. Lhz462>464-212015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 354 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210752
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
352 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Discussion
Another round of afternoon evening precipitation yesterday left
the near-surface layer at or near saturation overnight with patchy
fog developing this morning across much of the area. Expect the
greatest coverage across the thumb and saginaw valley where clearing
occurred earlier last night. Any fog or low clouds will mix out by
mid-morning. A similar, albeit slightly cooler, air mass is in place
today compared to yesterday, with dew points well into the 60s and
850mb temps in the mid teens c. Highs will reach the mid 80s upper
80s around metro detroit with heat indices in the upper 80s to lower
90s under partly cloudy skies.

The upper low currently near james bay will drop a potent shortwave
across the northern great lakes this afternoon and evening, which
will force a cold front south across SE michigan by this evening. An
unstable environment remains in place today, but model soundings
indicate a decent cap in the 700-800mb layer which should hold off
much convection given the lack of forcing. The cap is slightly
weaker across the tri-cities and especially the thumb, and with
better forcing arriving via the front, expect scattered showers and
storms to develop in these regions this afternoon. The 50+ kt 500mb
jet will sag south into the central great lakes and contribute to
bulk shear on the order of 35-40 kt by the late afternoon early
evening, coincident with peak heating and frontal passage. Progged
cape values this afternoon reach about 1000 j kg. This may allow
some stronger storms to develop primarily in the thumb with wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph possible. The best window for this
activity to occur will fall between 2 and 8pm.

Any showers and storms will move out by this evening as the cold
front pushes through. Drier northwest wind will usher in a cooler
air mass tonight that persists through the late week. Just a slight
chance of showers across the southern counties tomorrow afternoon as
a disturbance moves along the frontal boundary stalled over the
northern ohio valley. Another lobe of vorticity will drop from the
canadian upper low tomorrow night into Friday, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
reach the mid 70s with lows in the 50s. High pressure will drift
across the region during this time, leading to quiet and pleasant
conditions. Return flow sets up as the ridge axis passes to the east
Sunday, allowing warmer and more seasonable air to return to the
great lakes for early next week. The next chance for precipitation
comes Monday as a midlevel low attempts to bring a surge of tropical
moisture northward.

Marine
A cold front will drop south across lake huron this afternoon before
pushing into lake erie tonight. The front will trigger a few
thunderstorms, mainly on southern lake huron. A few of these could
be strong. Strengthening north-northwest winds will develop within
the post frontal cold air advection tonight, especially on lake
huron. There is moderate to high probabilities that wind gusts
across lake huron will range between 25 and 30 knots tonight. This
will result in hazardous conditions for small craft on the nearshore
waters of lake huron. Strong high pressure will slowly expand into
the great lakes from the north Thursday and Friday, leading to a
gradual decrease in the winds and waves.

Any agitated cumulus may be able to produce waterspouts later today
into tonight across southern lake huron, lake st. Clair, and lake
erie. Water temps are in the 70s near 80 in the western basin of
lake erie and 850mb temps will fall to around 9 to 10c, providing
plenty of instability. Convective cloud depths approaching 25 kft and
relatively weak 850 mb winds both lend additional support.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1154 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
aviation...

mid level clouds in wake of MCV enhanced vorticity MAX will fade
overnight with at least some chance for a period stratus fog early
in the morning given moisture from evening rain and light flow. Any
MVFR conditions will lift by mid morning as southwest flow increases
in advance of approaching cold front. This front bring a wind shift
late in the day and perhaps a period of lowerVFR cigs.

For dtw...VFR conditions will start the period, but a period of MVFR
cigs vsbys may occur by daybreak given moist low levels and light
winds. Otherwise, CIGS in around 5kft will be possible Wednesday
before cold FROPA by early evening scours lower moisture out to some
degree.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate confidence in cigs AOB 5kft late tonight Wednesday
morning, low late Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon edt Thursday
for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Tf
marine... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi92 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 72°F 72°F1 ft1012.2 hPa (-0.2)
PSCM4 22 mi32 min S 4.1 G 7 71°F 1030.5 hPa (-0.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi44 min W 8.9 G 11 69°F 73°F1012.7 hPa66°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi50 min W 5.1 G 7 69°F 1012.7 hPa66°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi50 min 70°F 1012.7 hPa
KP58 47 mi41 min 4.1 68°F 1011.4 hPa66°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair64°F63°F95%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3S3S4SW4CalmSE9SW7CalmW4NW5E6CalmSW3--------Calm
1 day ago--CalmCalmCalmN4------CalmSW3N6SE4SW3W5N6E3E3SE3------CalmCalm--
2 days agoSE5CalmSE4--SE4S8S10S9SW8
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CalmSE8SE8S6SW5SW6SW7W6W4--SE4SW5--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.