Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday April 4, 2020 12:00 PM EDT (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:202004042015;;559396 Fzus63 Kdtx 041359 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 959 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A weak cold front, averaging 30.00 inches, moves through the central great lakes today. The front is followed quickly by high pressure tonight and Sunday, building to 30.30 inches through Monday. The next low pressure system is projected to reach western lake superior during Tuesday at 29.50 inches. Lhz462>464-042015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 959 am edt Sat apr 4 2020
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain early in the morning...then rain likely until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of rain in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 041100 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 700 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

AVIATION.

A steady increase in high based cloud cover will mark conditions during the early day period, as moisture gradually increases downstream of an inbound cold front. A modest southeast wind gradually veering to southwest during this time. The passage of this boundary will offer a window for MVFR level restrictions accompanied by a scattered coverage of showers during the late afternoon and evening periods. Period of cold air advection within post-frontal northwest winds will maintain low stratus into tonight. Recent model guidance does suggest clearing potential will increase from northwest to southeast by the early-mid morning hours Sunday.

For DTW . Inbound cold front will bring lowering cigs for the evening hours /mainly after 21z/, within some pockets of light showers. Low stratus holds overnight, with clearing likely near daybreak Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. High this evening and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

DISCUSSION .

Clouds will be filling in through the morning as a weak cold front positioned over Lake Michigan continues its push eastward today. The front will be shearing out while advancing through SE MI this afternoon as the parent low over Manitoba pulls the main vort lobe northward through northern MI and the incoming jet aligns along the international border with favorable forcing developing over Ontario. The suite of models are in lock step with a weakening trend to fgen while tracking through the region but offer a respectable moisture surge along of the front with a narrow ribbon of PWATS exceeding 0.75". Dry air in place will keep early activity at bay holding off the bulk of the light showers til the 18-00Z window with a few showers possible before that mainly for the Tri-Cities region, closer to the apex of the bowed out front. Hires models are starting to hint at a weak area of pressure falls over Mid MI which may help produce a better coverage to showers but overall a chance pop will continue with high chance north of I69. QPF remains low, mainly less than 0.1" through the evening hours as any one location will likely only see showers for a few hours as it passes.

High pressure will build quickly back into the region by Monday morning with convergence aloft and dry air overtaking the area once again leading to clear skies. Northerly flow will knock high temps down a bit into the low/mid 50s which is about normal for early April.

The mid week period will be dominated by nearly zonal flow as a strong cutoff low drift south along the west coast and a resultant low amplitude ridge sets up over the central conus. This will end up leading to a messy stretch of weather as a warm frontal boundary sets up just south of the state and several shortwaves eject out of the cutoff low. In addition there will be a couple northern stream troughs that drop through the region. The first of which will drop through southern MI Monday night offering a chance of showers. The next stronger trough looks to pick up some energy from the cutoff low developing a stronger surface low that will then pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models are still all over the place with potential placement of the surface low and warm front which have big implications on Max Ts and thunderstorm chances. Will also be watching the frontal position to see how these lead waves affect it. Forecast will offer chances of showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday night.

Another pattern change looks likely Thursday as a deepening stacked low pressure system passes through the region with a pair of cold fronts sweeping through Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing over the region well into the weekend would likely lead cloudy weekend with some periods of light showers and max temps only in the 40s.

MARINE .

High pressure will erode later this morning as light winds veer southeasterly ahead of an inbound upper level circulation. This will guide an expansive cold front eastward through the central Great Lakes during the afternoon hours. Showers will organize linearly along the boundary, with higher confidence over the Lake Huron basin, but lightning is not expected to pose a threat threat due to an unfavorable thermal profile. Once the front clears this evening, winds will shift to a northwesterly flow regime for the overnight period with a few gusts to 20 knots possible along the northern international border. High pressure builds back on Sunday as heights rebound to close out the weekend with mainly dry and calm conditions carrying into Monday as surface flow gradually veers southeasterly.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi49 min SE 8 G 8 38°F 45°F1016.9 hPa35°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi49 min S 5.1 G 8 49°F 1017.2 hPa38°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi49 min 50°F 1017.3 hPa
KP58 47 mi70 min ESE 8 41°F 1018.1 hPa37°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi65 minS 410.00 miFair50°F38°F67%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAX

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
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NE8N5N8NE7NE4NE6E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S4
1 day agoNW7N11
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N10N8N6--N6NE4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N4NE3N3N4N4NE6N9
2 days agoN5N6N6N8N8N5N8N4NW3CalmW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW3NW3NW6NW4NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.