Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Era, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

- Light Snow Possible North of I96 Today

An elevated warm front crossing the CWA this morning into early afternoon brings a window for light snow showers north of I96. A few tenths of an inch of accumulation at most is possible near US10 with no accumulation expected south of there. As the elevated warm front exits this afternoon, precipitation diminishes. The arrival of warm air may allow snow to briefly mix with or change over to rain as precipitation diminishes.

- Light Rain/Drizzle Sunday Night into Monday

The trend for mid-level moisture to remain south of West Michigan in the latest deterministic guidance suggests that substantial precipitation remains south of the area. However, low-level forcing in a saturated sub 700mb layer will support the potential for light showers or drizzle Sunday Night into Monday. One thing that will need to be monitored is surface temperatures in our traditional colder spots in the northeastern CWA (towards Clare and Osceola Counties). They are forecast to be right on the freezing line which could lend itself to a period of brief freezing drizzle if temps fall low enough. Confidence is low, less than 20 percent) that any freezing precipitation occurs but surface temperature trends in this region will need to be monitored. Patchy fog is also possible given a saturated boundary layer.

- Cold With Lake Effect Chances Mid Week

A cold front sweeping across the area Monday Night starts a brief but noticeable cooldown across the area mid next week as 850mb temperatures fall into the negative teens, translating to highs in the 20s. Once troughing moves overhead, ample delta-Ts will support lake effect snow showers and possibly light accumulations between Tuesday night and Thursday. However, unlike the recent lake effect activity, the troughing is not expected to persist for an extended time. Late next week, surface and upper-level riding push into the area causing temperatures to begin to moderate.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 709 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Some MVFR clouds continue to hang on across Southwest Lower Michigan at 12z. The ceilings are right on the MVFR/VFR line around 3000ft. We expect these lower clouds to scatter out/lift east this morning with VFR weather prevailing by 16z or so. Some light snow is expected to swing across Northern and Central Lower Michigan this morning, staying well north of the TAF sites. VFR weather is expected this afternoon through tonight with mid and high clouds expected with bases about 10,000 feet.

Winds will be the primary concern today as speeds ramp into the 15-25 knot range by midday. Winds peak this afternoon and evening with gusts reaching the 30-40 knot range. Winds aloft at 2000ft will be on the order of 50-55 knots creating the potential for low level wind shear.

MARINE
Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Have issued a Gale Warning starting at 14z (9am EST) for lake michigan from Pentwater to St. Joseph. This afternoon into early Sunday morning southwest winds ramp up to 25-30 knots. Stronger winds aloft will be supportive of a marginal gale event with gusts to around 35 knots expected. While warm air advection looks to limit gust potential by limiting mixing, forecast soundings suggest enough mixing for marginal gales will occur. North of Pentwater gusts are not expected to quite reach gales with gusts to around 30 knots expected and a Small Craft Advisory is in place. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist beyond the Gale Warning into early next week.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>848.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ849.