New Era, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Era, MI

June 23, 2024 7:09 PM EDT (23:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 9:30 PM
Moonrise 10:34 PM   Moonset 6:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun Jun 23 2024

Through early evening - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots backing west, then backing south late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

Tuesday night - West winds around 15 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday - North winds around 10 knots backing northwest. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

Friday - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Era, MI
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 232004 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 404 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Two Rounds of Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday

- Dry Mid Week With Rain Returning Friday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

For tonight and Monday, no changes of note. Some model guidance brings some brief sprinkles to our northwest forecast area and adjacent waters, but this is low probability and non-impactful even if it occurs. Otherwise, we are seeing a gradual erosion in clouds and this should be hastened this evening by nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer.

- Two Rounds of Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tuesday

An active long term period is expected across West Michigan. The first timeframe of concern will be early Tuesday morning as a typical "ridge rider" MCS pattern sets up. Thunderstorms across Minnesota and Wisconsin will grow upscale into an MCS. Consensus among a majority of the 12z CAMS is this arrives still intact with 500+ J/kg of MUCAPE advecting in ahead of it. Some uncertainty exists in two key areas that will determine whether damaging winds affect the CWA First is the extent of low-level stability. Model soundings show a notable low-level stable layer which may limit to what extent winds can mix to the surface. Second is uncertainty as to how much instability advects in ahead of this feature determining how quickly the MCS dies. The best chance of any wind impacts if they occur will be along and northwest of a South Haven to Clare line. Given the progressive nature of the MCS flooding is not expected with this round.

A second round of severe storms is possible Tuesday afternoon.
However, certainty remains lower as afternoon convective evolution will depend on evolution of the morning MCS. Model consensus is that atmospheric recovery does occur behind the MCS with LREF 50th percentile CAPE values climbing to 1500 J/kg Tuesday evening. In addition, the morning MCS activity brings the potential of leaving a remnant outflow boundary which could serve as a convective trigger.
By late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, a cold frontal boundary moves through the CWA bringing the potential for strong to severe storms mainly near and south of I96. The main question with this round is shear. While a low-level jet will be in place, the mid- level jet will be displaced to the Northwest limiting deep-layer shear. However, forecast soundings suggest 25-35 knots of effective shear which would be enough to support a severe weather risk combined with the ample CAPE. This will need to be monitored over the next 48 hours as mesoscale trends become more apparent. The other concern is excessive rainfall. Mean cloud-layer winds look to be front-parallel which brings a chance of training storms and locally heavy rain as a result.

- Dry Mid Week With Rain Returning Friday

Wednesday into Thursday will feature dry weather across West michigan as approaching surface and mid-level ridging cause dry conditions and at partly cloudy or better skies across West Michigan. By Friday into Saturday there is a decent signal across guidance for chances of showers and storms. Chances begin Friday associated with warm air advection and the lifting of a warm frontal boundary across the CWA A cold frontal boundary causes shower and thunderstorm chances to continue into Saturday as a cold front passes through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No significant changes with the 18z TAFs. Widespread MVFR cigs will lift to VFR over the next few hours as better mixing takes hold. Cigs become indefinite overnight as high pressure and dry air moves into the area. There are weak signals for a FEW to SCT stratus deck to develop along the I94 corridor between 9z and 12z but have omitted this from the TAF given low confidence.
Skies remain mostly sunny into Monday as high pressure continues.
Northwesterly winds of 15G25 knots are expected through the evening before galling below 10 knots overnight. Winds become more northerly around 5 knots for Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 404 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Based on most recent trends and plenty of beach traffic per webcams, we decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement from Grand Haven southward until 8 PM EDT.

Previous discussion follows...

We have seen a recent localized uptick in winds and waves at the Holland buoy and a similar wind bump at the Muskegon Coastal Marine station. This matches a small pocket of elevated winds advertised by the 17Z HRRR. This particular model run shows this pocket peeling quickly southward along the lakeshore as it becomes more diffuse, so we are therefore still comfortable with maintaining a 5 PM expiration for our Small Craft Advisory and accompanying Beach Hazards Statement.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ056- 064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>846.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 25 mi39 minWNW 12G13 68°F 29.7864°F
45161 27 mi29 min 2 ft
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 29 mi51 minWSW 1G2.9
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 36 mi89 minSW 4.1G6 67°F 29.83
45210 44 mi43 min 65°F 63°F1 ft
45029 47 mi39 minWNW 9.7G14 66°F 72°F3 ft63°F


Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMKG31 sm14 minWNW 0610 smA Few Clouds73°F63°F69%29.81
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Wind History graph: MKG
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,




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