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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm est this evening...
Through early evening..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain and snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Rain and snow showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 15 knots backing north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 302332 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 632 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

No significant changes to snow amounts have been made for Friday as we still expect 1 to 3 inches of snow, along and north of I-96. Expected surface temperatures are above freezing so conditions will be marginal for accumulating snow across most of the forecast area. We will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory as travel impacts are expected to be minor, except possibly in local areas where mesoscale snow bands bring higher snowfall rates that are able to put down a slushy coating.

The northern edge of the precip shield is expected to arrive in the southwest forecast area late this evening, in an area of mid level frontogenetical forcing in advance of a surface low tracking across the Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night.

Frontogenesis strengthens Friday morning and the hi-res models show some potential for mesoscale banding with most of the QPF expected between 8 am and noon. The highest precip rates are centered around 10 am at Grand Rapids. There could be a lull in the afternoon before a second vorticity max brings a round of lighter precip Friday night with additional light accumulations of generally less than an inch across the northern half of the forecast area,

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Near-normal temperatures are favored through the middle of next week as longwave troughing over the region remains the mode. A series of shortwave troughs and their attendant surface lows propagating through this pattern will provide 2 or 3 additional chances for precipitation through Thursday, each with their precip-amount and precip-type challenges (areas of rain/snow).

The ensemble guidance envelope is clustering around the idea of likely precipitation during the day Sunday as another TX panhandle low tracks over the OH valley or southern Great Lakes. QPF in any given location is far from settled, though area-wide looks to be a similar range as this Friday's system. Similar rain/snow challenges with this system also with the marginally warm temperatures in the lower atmosphere. A couple inches of wet snow is plausible somewhere, again.

An Alberta-clipper type of shortwave set to reinforce our region's troughing would then be favored to arrive Mon night to Tues. Less moisture would accompany this system, so lighter rain or snow amounts would be expected.

Then, low confidence in a low-amplitude shortwave with limited moisture tracking over our area for Wed night to Thu, before longer wave ridging becomes favored over the region with milder Pacific air flowing in for late week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

An area of BKN to OVC ceilings around 3 to 6 kft is expanding over the area from AZO to MKG northeast to LAN to MOP. Sky coverage will continue to increase and gradually lower overnight to MVFR then IFR as rain moves into the area mainly after 6Z for southern Michigan and spreading toward a LAN to GRR to MKG line around 10Z to 14Z. Precipitation in this area may start of as more of a mix, but this line will be around the transition zone for precipitation with rain to the south and snow to the north. There could be periods along this line where bursts of snow occur causing accumulations on surfaces and low visibilities. Snowfall rates around a quarter to a half inch are possible in these heavier bursts.

MARINE
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

No change to the Small Craft Advisory which should be able to expire at 11 pm tonight as winds diminish and go offshore and conditions should remain fairly tranquil into early next week.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

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