Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitehall, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered light showers this afternoon through tonight will bring beneficial rain to the region. Flash flooding, isolated or otherwise, is no longer a threat.

2) Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms is expected Wednesday, but no warning-level impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clouds are on the increase across the area from southwest to northeast as a mid-level shortwave and low-level warm front approach from the west. A resulting area of showers is expanding northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic, while vigorous convection is ongoing upstream in the Ohio Valley. Another mid-level shortwave to our north has helped to initiate some showers over the international border, but both of these disturbances will remain displaced from our region through tomorrow. Therefore, while we continue to expect scattered showers this afternoon through tonight due to warm air advection and adjacent forcing for ascent, the amount of rainfall we will see has decreased further. Likely also contributing to our lower QPF is the aforementioned convection upstream. Heavy rain is pouring into the Ohio Valley and likely robbing us of some of our available moisture. In fact, our current dewpoint depression spread ranges from about 13-20 degrees. So the showers that are currently incoming are going to have some dry air to battle before reaching the ground.

That said, as the warm sector of the system moves into our area this evening into tonight and moisture increases, the column will moisten, showers will become a bit more widespread, and rain will actually start reaching the ground more consistently.
Overall, we anticipate anywhere from about 0.1" to 0.25" this afternoon through tonight with an additional 0.05" to 0.2" through tomorrow afternoon as the still departing system continues to cause highly scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. However, as rainfall rates are anticipated to be very light and the progressive nature of this system will limit shower/storm duration over single locations, there are no concerns of flooding today or tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of dry conditions returns Tuesday before the chances for showers and potential thunderstorms increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. At this time, there is not an expectation for any storms to become severe as instability appears limited amid meager lapse rates. That said, deep layer shear is about 40 kt so storm organization cannot be ruled out. The biggest factor at play will be the timing of the front.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday... VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the remainder of this afternoon, with mid- level clouds and southerly winds with gusts up to 15-25 kts.
Scattered rain showers and mist will develop late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for brief cig and vis drops to MVFR. As rain showers become more widespread during the overnight period, conditions are expected to steadily deteriorate to MVFR and eventually widespread IFR during the early overnight hours.

IFR conditions, with localized drops to LIFR cigs, will persist through early Monday morning alongside the rain showers and mist. Winds are also expected to gradually weaken throughout the overnight period, with moderate gusts beginning to diminish after 02Z. Cigs will gradually improve back up to MVFR by late Monday morning as shower activity decreases, with persistent low-level moisture keeping MVFR cigs locked in across the region through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.