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FXUS61 KALY 032017 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 417 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
After a stretch of dry, sunny and unseasonable warmth this week, a strong cold front will cross the region Friday night through Saturday. It will likely usher in widespread rainfall with some locally heavy downpours possible before a much cooler air mass sweeps across the Northeast with lingering showers and breezy conditions continue through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Another beautiful day is on tap today with much above normal temperatures rising well into the 70s to near 80 in the hill towns and higher terrain with low 80s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley. Latest GOES16 water vapor satellite imagery shows an expansive ridge of high pressure covering much of the Eastern CONUS keeping the area dry and cloud free. The clockwise circulation around the sfc high pressure positioned in western PA and eastern Ohio will advect the anomalously warm air mass from Midwest up and over the ridge into the Northeast. This will usher in 850hPa isotherms close to +17C to +21C or 2.5 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal for early October. Despite such warm air aloft, boundary layer mixing on forecast soundings appear to be rather shallow given a lower subsidence inversion.
If we had deeper mixing (say up to 850-800hPa), we would be even warmer. Even still, high temperatures today will rise 15 to 20 degrees above normal and rival daily record high temperatures. See our climate section for daily records.

Dew points will be a bit higher than yesterday, rising into the upper 50s to towards 60 so it will feel warmer than yesterday.

Skies remain clear tonight promoting radiational cooling.
Temperatures will once again fall quickly during the early evening hours, then gradually fall overnight once they approach respective dewpoints. With increased low-level moisture and light to calm winds, patchy valley fog will likely develop again, some of which could be locally dense. Lows temperatures will drop into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Morning fog in valley areas should linger for a few hours in the morning before burning off by 14-15 UTC. Then, we can enjoy sunny skies and another day of much above normal temperatures as our impressive ridge of high pressure with heights rising to 590dam crests over the Northeast. With 850hPa isotherms reaching +16C to +18C and upper level flow shifting to the south- southwest, daytime highs will climb well into the 70s for the hill towns and higher to even low to mid 80s in valley areas. We will inch towards record high territory but we fall a few degrees shy as boundary layer mixing may not be deep enough to surpass some of the current records that stand at 86F for ALB and POU. GFL is lower at only 80F so better chance to break that record.

Clear skies initially will support radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night but sfc winds shift to the southeast in response the sfc high moving into the Canadian Maritime and inducing a fetch off the Atlantic. Increased moisture off the ocean could advect in some clouds, especially towards morning.
This should help mitigate fog formation but some low stratus could develop, especially if low-level moisture becomes trapped underneath the subsidence inversion.

Southeast sfc flow and the marine fetch continues into Thursday which could continue to support at least partly sunny skies.
Otherwise, temperatures will likely still be above normal but not quite as warm as previous days given more cloud coverage and the marine influence from the southeast winds. Highs looking to rise into the mid to upper 70s with valley areas flirting with 80. Despite increased clouds, we should still be under the influence of the high over the Canadian Maritimes so we will have another dry day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main focus for the long term continues to be on a potent upper level trough and associated strong sfc cold front for Friday into especially Saturday with potential for moderate to even locally heavy rain, depending on if and where a secondary sfc low develops along the boundary. A much cooler air mass arrives in the wake of the boundary for Sunday through Monday with breezy conditions and even lake effect rain showers tracking into our area. More details below.

An initially positive tilted trough from the Midwest shifts eastward on Friday into the Great Lakes and becomes neutrally tilted as height falls downstream into the Northeast gradually increase. Some scattered showers look to develop ahead of the trough in our forecast area, mainly south of I-90 as southeast flow off the Atlantic increases. This marine fetch should help keep skies rather cloudy on Friday but we should stay mild with temperatures above normal in the 70s as we remain in the warm air mass well ahead of the incoming trough.

There is growing consensus among the guidance for the incoming trough to become neutrally tilted Friday night and slowly take on a negative tilt as it tracks into the Ohio Valley. Height falls downstream of the trough increase more noticeably with the low and mid-level jet over the Northeast increasing and advecting in deeper moisture from the Southeast U.S. All of these factors likely promote a period of moderate rain developing and overspreading across the Northeast from west to east Friday night into Saturday. If the trough does close off to our west as current guidance suggests, we could be positioned in the favorable right entrance region of the upper level jet which could support a secondary surface low forming along the incoming cold front. Exactly where this secondary low tracks will likely result in more organized periods of moderate to possibly even heavy rain as PWATs increase to over 2 standard deviations above normal and strong low-level convergence develops along the incoming sfc boundary. Latest guidance shows the best potential for this heavier rainfall mainly east of the Hudson River into western New England but we will continue to monitor trends. Some isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Localized flooding could occur in response these periods of rain and we have messaged the flooding potential in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. WPC continues to highlight our region in its marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall for Friday into Saturday with even a slight risk outlined for areas mainly north of I-90.

Temperatures drop off sharply Saturday night into Sunday as a much cooler air mass surges in behind the cold front leading to a dramatic change to our weather pattern. Temperatures plummet and high temperatures Sunday and Monday look to fall below normal, barely rising out of the 50s both days. Breezy winds will also be in play behind the front as the upper level closed low remains overhead, promoting moist cyclonic flow and lingering cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. With much cooler air wrapping into the Northeast and over the still warm waters of Lake Ontario, we should see a lake response with lake effect rain showers tracking into our forecast area, especially west of the Hudson River, on Sunday and possibly in Monday. Such cool temperatures could also support some rain/snow showers for the higher peaks of the southern Adirondacks Sunday night.
Overnight low temperatures both Sunday and Monday night could drop into the 40s to even 30s in the higher terrain.



AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions this afternoon will prevail through this evening as light westerly winds at ALB/POU/PSF and southerly winds at GFL diminish to calm conditions after 00Z Wed.

Clear skies are expected throughout the period, however the ideal radiational cooling environment will result in areas of fog and mist overnight. Have included IFR vsbys/cigs after 04-06Z Wed at GFL/POU/PSF where confidence is higher, but have maintained more conservative MVFR vsbys at ALB. Any fog will dissipate in the few hours following sunrise, by 13-14Z Wed, with light south to southeast winds developing at all terminals through the morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite RA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
RA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures

October 3rd ALB 83 (1967)
GFL 82 (1898)
POU 83 (1995)

October 4th ALB 86 (1891)
GFL 80 (1951)
POU 86 (1941)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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