Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitehall, NY

DISCUSSION
Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through this early evening.

- Relief from the heat and humidity tonight.

- Windy conditions tonight into tomorrow morning with gusts potentially (45% chance) reaching up to 40-45 mph in valley locations.

Afternoon temperatures range in the 80s to low 90s with feels- like temperatures outside between 95 and 101 degrees across valley locations. The Heat Advisory for portions of eastern New York and western New England continues through 7 PM tonight.
Relief from the heat and humid conditions arrives tonight with a strong cold front moving through. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop for this afternoon and evening across eastern New York and western New England ahead of a cold front moving through tonight. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are the primary concerns with any developed thunderstorm through the early evening hours. This cold front will help contribute to the relief from the humidity and hot temperatures.

Windy conditions will also follow suit behind the cold front as a surface low pressure system heads north and east tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds could gust between 35 and 45 mph periodically through early tomorrow morning for the Mohawk Valley into the Hudson Valley and Berkshires as latest high resolution forecast models and probabilities from the National Blend of Models supports winds greater than 30 mph is between 60 and 80 percent. Breezy conditions are in store elsewhere through the early morning hours Friday. By tomorrow afternoon, winds decrease and range between 10 and 15 mph.

Surface high pressure builds into the Northeast for tonight into tomorrow bringing drier conditions and comfortable temperatures with highs in the 80s and dew points in the 50s for Friday. Less humid conditions are in store through Saturday with chances (50-70%)
of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms developing Saturday night into Sunday. A surface low pressure system quickly moves through eastern New York and western New England Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing these unsettled conditions.
Depending on how fast the low pressure system moves through and how strong the surface high pressure moves in to the Northeast, dry conditions return Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon.

Low chances of precipitation (less than 30%) for beyond Tuesday as ensemble forecast models and National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance supports a variety of weather conditions as we could see either dry conditions or afternoon rain shower activity. Temperatures throughout the week remain seasonal with highs ranging in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Towards the end of next week, hot afternoon temperatures could return with temperatures ranging in the 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR flying conditions will prevail through 18 UTC with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through 00 UTC ahead of a potent cold front. We included a Prob30 and TEMPO groups for brief storms at PSF, ALB and GFL 18 - 23 UTC with potential for MVFR flying conditions. Cannot rule out IFR vis during any heavy downpours but not enough confidence to include IFR vis. Then, an impressive cold front continues marching eastward late this afternoon into early this evening resulting in strong, gusty winds shifting from the south/southwest to west/northwest. Gusts up to 30-35mph are likely through 12 UTC with winds gradually weakening after 12 UTC.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Vtz013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Nyz043-049-050- 052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084
MA
None
VT
None.