Whitehall, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitehall, NY


December 4, 2023 3:18 PM EST (20:18 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM   Sunset 4:17PM   Moonrise  12:00AM   Moonset 1:28PM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitehall, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 041731 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1231 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Expect lingering lake effect and orographically enhanced rain and snow showers today mainly in the higher terrain areas along with breezy, cloudy yet seasonable conditions. A cold front tonight will usher in colder air and maintain lake effect snow showers again, mainly for the higher terrain. High pressure builds across the Northeast for Tuesday into Wednesday giving us continued cooler and breezy conditions with just some isolated snow showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
Radar and obs indicating scattered rain showers still occurring in southern portions of the Capital District into the northern Taconics/Berkshires early afternoon. These are lake enhanced showers from moisture off Lake Erie. There is enough instability aloft (steep 700-500 mb lapse rates) to maintain the showers this far inland, so have increased PoPs again in these areas through mid afternoon. Otherwise satellite imagery showing mostly cloudy skies. Winds are shifting to the west behind a cold front now passing through western New England.
Temperatures will start to fall by later this afternoon as cold advection commences.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0934]...Minimal changes need with this update.
Increase PoPs to mention scattered rain showers from Schoharie County into the Capital District through this morning based on current radar and obs. Otherwise, temperatures are still relatively mild an mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s outside of the Adirondacks and southern Greens, with mainly lower/mid 30s there. It is still expected to turn breezy behind a cold front this afternoon.

Behind an open potent shortwave, strong west flow continues through the column and runs down the long fetch of the lake.
While the incoming air mass is actually quite seasonable with 850hPa only -4C to -5C, latest radar imagery shows a primary lake effect band extending off Lake Erie with fragments reaching into the northern Catskills including Schoharie County. The RGEM and GFS has handled this response well and we therefore adjusted POPs to more closely match these trends and collaborated with BGM to ensure consistency with our upstream neighbor. Guidance indicates the lake effect extension off Lake Erie should continue to reach Schoharie through Monday morning and may even extend as far east as the Helderbergs and even parts of the Capital District. The RGEM even suggests the extension reaches into Berkshire County but with limited cold air advection, no multi-lake connection and a mixing depth only up to 2km, we have lesser confidence for lake effect showers will reach into western New England. Therefore, have chance POPS reserved for Schoharie County into the Helderbergs with slight chance eastward. Regardless, temperatures are still mild enough that p-type will be rain outside of the higher terrain in the northern Catskills where a rain/snow mix can occur. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates in the boundary layer so would not be surprised if some graupel falls in the higher terrain.

Further north, lake effect off Lake Ontario will impact the western Adirondacks through this morning as well in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in the higher terrain. Marginal temperatures should limit any wet snow accumulations under 1 inch.

Otherwise, winds turn breezy today with sustained winds 5-15kts and gusts up to 25-30kts (strongest from the Mohawk Valley through the Berkshires). Heading into the afternoon, the lake effect bands break-up into fragments as the true cold front and a weaker shortwave tracks eastward and boundary layer flow veers from the west to northwesterly. Guidance shows the push of true cold air behind the front arriving after 18 UTC through 00 UTC from northwest to southeast. This will enhance the lake effect response for the western and southern Adirondacks and the upslope/orographic lift along the spine of the Greens. The cold air advection will also create more favorable conditions for wet snow to accumulate. However, still only expecting up to 1 inch of snow. The northwesterly wind shift should redirect lake effect bands from the northern Catskills southward and should transition to be more wet snow in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills as the boundary layer cools and we approach sunset. Some showers may even reach the Hudson Valley. However, the less favorable fetch off the lake should weaken the bands and thus keep any accumulations to a minimum.

High temperatures today will be rather seasonable despite the breezy conditions. Highs likely reach the mid to even upper 40s in the valley thanks to deep boundary layer mixing with mid to upper 30s in the hill towns and higher terrain. However, the breezy winds and cloudy skies will make it feel cooler.

For tonight, cold air advection behind the front will maintain lake effect snow showers for the northern/eastern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley, western/southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but again the northwesterly flow down the short fetch of Lake Ontario will weaken the lake enhancement and therefore keep any snow accumulations low with most only ranging from a coating to 1 inch. The spine of the southern Greens should see the highest amounts with 1 - 1.5 inches possible due to orographic enhancements. Otherwise, cloud coverage and breezy winds keep temperatures elevated with lows only in the mid to upper 20s with low 30s in the valley.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Strong subsidence and high pressure from the Ohio Valley builds into the Northeast for Tuesday which will shut-off the lake effect response. While some skies could break for some sun in the morning, once we reach peak heating, skies likely become cloudy again as moisture underneath the subsidence inversion remains in place. Expect a cooler day thanks to northwest flow.
Highs only likely reach the mid to upper 30s for most with some low 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley and upper 20s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern/western Adirondacks.

A cooler night expected for Tuesday night despite mostly cloudy as high pressure builds into southern Canada, promoting a northerly wind shift. Thus, temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s for much of the area with low 20s in the higher terrain.

Northerly flow continues for Wednesday which will maintain the cooler temperatures with highs only rising into the low to mid 30s. Mid to upper 20s in the higher terrain. Luckily, skies should finally give way to increased afternoon sun as the northerly flow advects in a drier air mass as we lose the moisture fetch off the lakes. It will be rather breezy, however, as a disturbances passes off shore and the sfc pressure gradient tightens. This will make it feel even cooler. Guidance hints that some isolated snow showers are possible for Wednesday, perhaps enhanced from Lake Champlain, but we did not have enough confidence to include in the latest forecast and maintained dry conditions.

Wednesday night will turn cold thanks to clearer skies and radiational cooling. Lows expected to drop into the teens and low 20s throughout eastern NY and western New England.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridging just begins to build into our region from the west on Thursday. Weak warm advection will begin through the day Thursday as low level ridging builds east of our region. There maybe a few lake effect snow showers into the southern Adirondacks. Considerable mid and high clouds with temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 and upper 20s to around 30 higher terrain.

Periods of mid and high clouds Friday into Saturday as deeper warm advection continues and the upper level ridge axis tracks through our region, shifting upper level winds to the SW, allowing for more upper level moisture to stream in. Highs Friday in the 40s with mid to upper 30s higher terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lower 40s higher terrain.

Amplifying upper energy approaches our region from the west and southwest Sunday. Stronger warm advection, along with increasing deep moisture, low level jet energy and isentropic lift should spread showers through the region. Highs Sunday around 50 to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s higher terrain.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Tuesday....

Main weather concerns to operations for the ALY terminals during the 18z TAF cycle will be:

* Low VFR to MVFR ceilings continuing through tonight and possibly through the 18z TAF cycle

* VCSH for KALB and KPSF through this afternoon into this evening

* Potential for mist developing tonight, especially over KGFL and KPSF (depending on if winds diminish)

MVFR ceilings are occurring over KALB this afternoon with VFR conditions taking place at all of the other area terminals with cloud bases ranging between 2,500-4,500 feet AGL. Some vicinity lake effect rain showers is moving over parts of the area including the Capital District this afternoon as a shallow cold front continues to slide eastward. Forecast trends suggest that the local forecast area will remain in low VFR to MVFR ceilings through tonight and possibly through the 18z TAF cycle as multiple weak shortwave troughs move through the region. Low level moisture from recent rains/precipitation could give way to some mist developing later tonight as another inversion is expected to develop. This is especially the case for KGFL and KPSF. Winds, however, will be the deciding factor. If winds are strong enough, this will prevent the development of any mist from forming.

Where the aforementioned frontal boundary has passed, winds are out of the west-northwest at 5-10 kts. Where the front has not passed, winds are light and variable if not out of the south- southwest at 5- 10 kts. Tonight, winds will either be light and variable or out of the northwest between 5-10 kts. Winds will shift out of the north- northwest between 5-15 kts on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGFL FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL,NY 18 sm25 minWSW 0910 smOvercast43°F36°F76%29.71
KRUT RUTLAND SOUTHERN VERMONT RGNL,VT 24 sm22 minWSW 10G1710 smOvercast43°F34°F70%29.68

Wind History from GFL
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Mon -- 04:30 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:07 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:11 PM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3
1
am
2.1
2
am
1.4
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.1
5
am
0.1
6
am
1
7
am
2.2
8
am
3.1
9
am
3.7
10
am
4
11
am
3.8
12
pm
3
1
pm
2.3
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
1.3
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.6
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
2.6
8
pm
3.7
9
pm
4.3
10
pm
4.6
11
pm
4.4



Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:33 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
2.8
1
am
2
2
am
1.3
3
am
0.6
4
am
0
5
am
0.2
6
am
1.2
7
am
2.3
8
am
3.2
9
am
3.8
10
am
4
11
am
3.7
12
pm
2.9
1
pm
2.2
2
pm
1.7
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
0.7
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
1.5
7
pm
2.8
8
pm
3.8
9
pm
4.4
10
pm
4.6
11
pm
4.3




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