Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cedar Grove, WI

UPDATE
Issued 605 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The cold front is near the IL border and will continue to drift swd this morning. This will aid in ending the areas of dense fog over Rock and Walworth Counties.

A wave of low pressure is still expected to track along the front from KS to far srn Lower MI today into Wed AM. This keeps srn WI entrenched in nely winds and a strong frontal inversion, but the nose of a 30-40 kt LLJ and associated warm, most advection and frontogenesis will support widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms for the late afternoon and evening.
Elevated CAPE around 1000 J/KG, possibly higher toward IL, combining wrain then snow toward central Wisconsin, with rain and snow farther south.ith mdt effective shear will support a large hail threat mainly over se WI.

For the overnight, expect areas of very light rain or drizzle but nely winds and cold advection will drop temps below freezing north and west of the MKE metro area. Thus freezing drizzle and light glazing is a concern for the Wed AM commute. It will change to all light snow during the day when a shortwave trough and associated PVA and mid level frontogenesis shifts across srn WI. The light snow will likely continue into the early afternoon. Possibly an inch may accumulate toward central WI with under an inch elsewhere.

Gehring

SHORT TERM
Issued 1100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today (Tuesday) through Wednesday:

A backdoor cold front is currently moving southward across southern WI, with northeast winds arriving behind it. The initial passage of this front (ongoing as of ~10:30 PM Monday) is practically cloud free as seen on GOES Nighttime Microphysics, with just a few unrelated high-altitude clouds passing by, but through this morning we expect a gradual onset of low-altitude clouds (moving in off the lake), which slowly spread inland through the course of the daytime hours. Some marine fog might briefly mix into the shoreline of far southeastern WI this morning, though most guidance prefers to keep it just offshore. CAA behind the backdoor front reinforced by the cooling effect of Lake MI will hold shoreline and east-central WI daytime high temps to the 40s today, moderating up to the low to mid 50s further inland and further southwest. Dry weather expected this morning and early afternoon despite the approaching clouds.

Low pressure will track northeastward from the central Great Plains today, dragging a warm front into Illinois. The aforementioned northeasterly CAA will stall this front in Illinois, likely around the I-80 corridor, with numerous showers and thunderstorms firing up along it. The marine layer (covering our region north of the front) will be extremely stable, reducing the tornado threat to zero, and significantly reducing the wind gust threat as well. That said, plenty of MUCAPE will be present north of the front (perhaps 1,000 to 2,000 joules near the WI/IL border, locally higher) allowing elevated thunderstorms with a hail threat to drift north towards our region. This threat is conditionally dependent on the exact placement of the front, which has changed from one model initialization to the next, but the I-80 corridor of Illinois seems to be a strong consensus for the warm front placement on the latest (00z) CAMs, especially given that the WRF-ARW (which handles early-season marine backdoor cold fronts well due to it's special boundary layer scheme) came into agreement with the HRRR, NAM, and WRF- FV3 on the 00z run. The NAM-NEST and RRFS favor roughly 1 county further south, but still roughly agree with this assessment.
With the aforementioned levels of CAPE encroaching into far southern WI (mainly along and south of the I-94 corridor), and mostly unidirectional effective shear (~60 knots convective cloud-layer shear, 40-60 knot EBWD), the ingredients are forecast to be in place for a strong to severe storm with hail and frequent lightning, especially for the first 1 or 2 waves of storms reaching us (maybe even a left or right-moving supercell or two if all the ingredients align). We assess this threat as a level 1 out of 5 for much of the aforementioned area, with a level 2 out of 5 risk in the vicinity of the WI/IL borderline in southeastern WI.

As the low pressure system slowly ejects northeastward Tonight, light stratiform rain continues. A NW to SE rain to snow transition unfolds roughly 4 AM to Noon Wednesday, with slushy accumulations 1 inch or less possible north of I-94 and west of Madison, along with some slick travel possible for the Wednesday AM commute. A thin glaze of freezing rain ice accretion cannot be ruled out either. Further south and east, a transition to snow is not guaranteed, but we expect a few flakes to fly (with practically no snow or ice accumulation due to warm surface temps). Precip should slow down towards noon Wednesday, ending shortly thereafter. Though some flurries or drizzle might linger into the afternoon, air temps should be in the mid 30s to around 40, thus our best guess is smooth sailing for the Wednesday PM commute.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
Issued 1100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Wednesday night through Monday:

Overall an active pattern is expected for the end of the week into the weekend.

Wednesday night into Thursday will see CAA behind the departing trough and see temps drop closer to normal as high pressure works across the region through the day Thursday. Looking at overnight lows Wednesday in the 20s and high temps only in the 40s for Thursday.

Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough will begin to dig across the northern Plains through the day Thursday and trek across the Upper Midwest overnight into Friday morning. Models continue to track a sub-990mb low across northern WI. A bulk of the precip will be more anchored to the center of this clipper to our, but still will be a glancing blow of lighter precip across our neck of the woods. Best chances continue to be across our central WI counties, with diminishing chances further south. Thinking it will mild enough for initial round to start off as rain and stay mostly rain south of I-94, while looking a bit colder north of I-94 and mainly expecting wintry mix of rain and snow and potential for some all snow overnight into early Friday morning. Overall accumulations and amounts will be toward the lower end, but still could result in some pockets of travel impacts. Otherwise, this wound up system will also bring strong, gusty southwest winds turning west- northwesterly into Friday with winds gusts of 25-35 mph through the afternoon.

Will see a brief reprieve in the active pattern Friday night into Saturday as high pressure quickly works through the region and continuing the near normal temp trend.

Looking ahead to the weekend there continues to be signal for another deepening upper-level trough to develop across the central Plains and traverse into the Midwest. However, there continues to be a wide spread from the ensembles in the system's track, strength, as well as QPF amounts. The GFS, AIGEFS, and GEFS trends a bit weaker with a more elongated system, while the ECMWF, EPS, and AIFS trend stronger with the surface low undergoing cyclogenesis as it lifts across the Midwest. Additionally the spread in for the weekend system's QPF ranges from a few hundredths of an inch to over 2 inches with the largest spread seen on the NBM and GEFS members.
Despite the varying solutions and uncertainty, will need to keep an eye on this system as still expecting increase precip chances with potential impacts.

Otherwise, cluster analysis and ensemble trends continue to favor Colder airmass to settle across the region into early next week with below normal temps.

Wagner

AVIATION
Issued 605 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas of Cigs below 1 kft over se WI this morning along with dense fog over Rock and Walworth Counties. The Cigs should mostly rise to MVFR Cigs and expand across all of srn WI this afternoon. Cigs below 1 kft and some fog will return to se WI by late afternoon then expand across all of srn WI this evening.
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop during this time becoming drizzle or freezing drizzle early Wed AM. The drizzle will then change to snow from west to east across srn WI through the morning. Cigs will rise to 1-2 kft during the afternoon. Vsbys with the snow will range from 1-3SM.

Gehring

MARINE
Issued 1100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A backdoor cold front will continue southward across Lake Michigan through the overnight hours, bringing breezy northeasterly winds behind it. Pockets of marine dense fog may develop over southern portions of the lake overnight into Tuesday morning (mainly ahead of the front). Northeast winds behind the front should gradually clear out the fog (if applicable) by mid day Tuesday.

Low pressure around 29.6 inches develops in the central Great Plains and progresses into northern Illinois Tuesday night. There is some potential for thunderstorms across the southern third of the lake north of the associated warm front late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, with a continued northeast breeze. Low pressure ejects to the lower Great Lakes into Wednesday morning, turning winds northwesterly and allowing rain to slowly transition to snow. North to northwest gales are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the south half of the lake. Winds gradually diminish into Thursday morning.

Another round of gales is possible Thursday night into Friday as a compact clipper low of 29.2 inches crosses northern Lake Michigan.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Dense Fog Advisory
WIZ069-WIZ070 until 11 AM Tuesday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644 until 7 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Wednesday.