Pottersville, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pottersville, NY

June 18, 2024 2:26 PM EDT (18:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 5:37 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pottersville, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 181736 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A mid-June heat wave is officially underway with the anticipation of today's preliminary round of dangerous, near-record heat and elevated humidity to continue through at least Thursday, especially at lower elevations. While much of the region will remain dry during this period, each day will hold isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. A respite from ugly heat will come in time for the weekend with a cold front set to pass through the region Friday. Temperatures will then return to seasonably warm levels.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
**Heat Advisories in effect beginning noon today across all of eastern New York and western New England**

UPDATE
As of 135 PM EDT...A few pop-up showers have developed in the Eastern Catskills this afternoon with all other areas remaining dry. Temperatures have risen into the mid/upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas with upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations. This is especially true in portions of the SW Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills where showers occurred earlier this morning and more recently this afternoon. Made very minor adjustments to temperatures, PoPs and sky cover with this update. All else remains on track with additional details below.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0455 AM EDT]...The heat wave begins in earnest today as a closed upper-level high nearing 600 dam at 500 hPa builds just to the south of the region beneath anomalous ridging. At the surface, high pressure centered off Cape Cod will result in southerly to southwesterly flow across the region, while model soundings support mixing up to nearly 850 hPa, where temperatures will be 18-20C. Guidance has eased surface temperatures downward a few degrees, which seems to better reflect the high-but-not-extreme temperatures aloft, yielding afternoon highs today reaching the 80s in high terrain with upper 80s to mid 90s at lower elevations. These values may remain a few degrees below daily records at Albany and Glens Falls, while Poughkeepsie may see the best chance to tie or exceed its daily record temperature of 94 degrees.

Given deep mixing and the propensity for some high-res guidance to overestimate surface dewpoints, have also maintained surface humidity slightly lower than guidance, but still abnormally high with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s across the region. Together, this heat and humidity will result in heat indices of up to 95 degrees in the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and southern Greens, while lower elevations see values of 95 to 104 degrees. As such, Heat Advisories remain unchanged across all of eastern New York and western New England, beginning at noon today. Conditions tonight will remain mild and muggy, as temperatures only fall to lows in the mid 60s to low 70s across the region.

An upper shortwave apparent on water vapor imagery rotating about the northwestern flank of the anticyclone is expected to reach the eastern Great Lakes by this evening. Ample heat and humidity locally will yield some 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE across the region, with lift ahead of the upper shortwave sufficient to support isolated to scattered convection, especially to the north and west of Albany. While bulk shear remains low, only some 10-20 kt per model soundings, the relatively high instability may allow for storms to become fairly tall before collapsing and potentially causing isolated instances of damaging winds. SPC has therefore included much of the southern Adirondacks, along with the Mohawk, Upper Hudson, and Schoharie Valleys in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today. The high available moisture may additionally result in a brief heavy downpour within any thunderstorm.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**

Hot and humid weather will persist as height anomalies aloft reach their maximum on Wednesday, before slowly weakening afterward. Temperatures may warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday, reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s in high terrain with 90s expected at lower elevations, challenging daily records at climate sites. Steady dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will continue to yield potentially dangerous heat indices across the region. The Capital District remains the most likely area to see heat indices creep above 105 degrees, which would necessitate an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning, however at this point, it appears the Heat Advisory for heat indices up to 104 degrees will be sufficient.

With upper ridging at its strongest on Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely be at a minimum, although isolated convection remains possible, especially across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. Any storms will diminish into the evening following the loss of diurnal heating.
Mild and muggy conditions will persist through another night, as temperatures again only fall to lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

By Thursday, similarly hot and humid conditions are again expected which may challenge daily record highs as heat indices again reach up to 95 degrees in higher terrain and 95 to 104 degrees at lower elevations. At this point, Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday evening. A disturbance passing to the north may support scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially resulting in isolated damaging winds and brief heavy downpours, particularly north of I-88 and I-90. Summer will officially begin at 450 PM EDT, as temperatures are reaching their maximum for the day. Yet another mild and muggy night is expected as overnight lows remain stuck in the mid 60s to low 70 across the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
After consecutive days of hot and humid weather through much of the work week, our strong closed anticyclone with heights near the highest end of what both the NAEFS and GEFS have modeled starts flattening out by Friday. This will result in zonal flow developing across the Northeast as weak shortwaves embedded in the fast westerly flow aloft round the top of the ridge. A weak surface boundary from the International border also drops southward by Friday, with sfc winds veering to the northwest as it presses southward. All of these features should provide enough lift and forcing for ascent to break the cap and, in the presence of rather high instability, should easily support afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Increased speed and directional shear will also help support more organized convection. Continue to show widespread high end chance POPs but held off on likely given uncertainty on exact placement and timing of the incoming boundary. Otherwise, the incoming boundary will also help push the hot air mass southward so high temperatures, mainly north of I-90, should not be as oppressive. Areas south of the Capital District will likely still be quite hot in the mid-90s and heat advisories will likely be needed for at least the mid-Hudson Valley. Highs only reach into the mid to upper 80s to perhaps around 90 in the Capital District with cooler temperatures only reaching into the upper 70s to around 80 in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Shower and thunderstorm activity diminish with the loss of daytime heating but continue to show slight chance/low end chance POPs overnight thanks to the front lingering overhead. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue Friday night thanks to cloudy skies.

By Saturday, weak high pressure builds behind the front over the North Country which should help direct cooler and less humid air into more of eastern NY and western New England. It should also help push the boundary southward; however, just how far south the boundary tracks remains uncertain as most guidance suggests it gets hung up over southeastern NY. Where the boundary stalls will act as a favored location for renewed diurnal showers and thunderstorm activity, especially as the "ring of fire", or the periphery of the broad anticyclone, slowly drifts southward into eastern NY and western New England. Given ongoing uncertainty on its exact placement, we show widespread chance POPs. Between the scattered showers/storms, increased cloud coverage and sfc front pushing our hot air mass southward, daytime temperatures Saturday should not be as oppressive as previous days. Expecting highs to only top out in the mid to upper 80s for valley areas and 70s for the high terrain.
Humidity levels should be a bit lower as well. Heat advisories therefore appear unlikely for Saturday.

Our stalled boundary lifts northward as a warm front on Sunday in response to a potent shortwave amplifying in southern Canada. While the warm sector looks to return northward in response, it is unclear exactly how warm we may get on Sunday thanks to increased cloud coverage, shower/storm coverage, and boundary layer mixing depth uncertainty. We therefore are only messaging highs returning to the mid to upper 80s with dew points also creeping back upwards. When the main sfc cold front tracks through late in the day or even Sunday night, an organized line of shower and thunderstorms could develop, given plenty of instability and increased shear.

Monday remains muggy and warm as we stay ahead of the incoming parent shortwave trough Canada. Once the main trough axis swings through during the day, renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is likely with the true air mass change arriving Monday night into Tuesday. While temperatures and dew points trend downwards, bringing some relief from the heat/humidity Tuesday, we do not expect a significant cool down. In fact, the respite looks short before broad ridging potentially redevelops for the rest of the work week, sending another period of warm/humid air back into the Northeast.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Just some diurnally drive FEW-SCT cumulus clouds and high level cirrus clouds will drift through. There is a low probability (~20 percent) of a brief SHRA/TSRA, but coverage is likely to be too sparse to mention in TAFs. Given sufficient clearing and winds decoupling, patchy radiation fog may develop at KGFL overnight. Will mention MVFR vsby for now starting at 08Z, with periods of brief IFR possible through around 11z. Other sites should remain VFR.

Winds will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt, weakening to around 6 kt or less tonight. Winds on Wednesday will be south-southwest around 5-10 kt again.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday, June 18: Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGFL30 sm33 minSSE 0810 smClear88°F72°F59%30.16
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Wind History graph: GFL
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:10 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:56 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
2.8
1
am
3.9
2
am
4.6
3
am
5
4
am
4.8
5
am
4
6
am
3.1
7
am
2.4
8
am
1.6
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.3
11
am
0.8
12
pm
1.9
1
pm
2.8
2
pm
3.4
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.7
5
pm
3
6
pm
2.2
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
1.1
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:12 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3
1
am
4
2
am
4.7
3
am
5
4
am
4.7
5
am
3.9
6
am
3
7
am
2.3
8
am
1.4
9
am
0.6
10
am
0.3
11
am
1
12
pm
2
1
pm
2.9
2
pm
3.5
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
3.6
5
pm
2.9
6
pm
2.1
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.4
10
pm
0.1
11
pm
0.7


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