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PZZ253 Coastal Waters From Cape Foulweather To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 209 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.gale warning in effect from 10 am pst this morning through late tonight...
Today..S wind 25 to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 10 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds, building to 16 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Tonight..S wind 30 to 35 kt, easing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts to 40 kt, becoming 45 kt in the late evening and early morning, then40 kt early in the morning. Combined seas 20 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt until late afternoon. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds, subsiding to 13 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Rain.
Mon..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely.
Mon night..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the morning. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 11 seconds, subsiding to W 2 ft at 14 seconds after midnight.
Tue..E wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..SE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 15 seconds, building to W 9 ft at 17 seconds.

PZZ200 209 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A warm front moves over the water Saturday morning. Increasing winds and seas on Saturday and Sunday. High pressure returns early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 091133 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 333 AM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION
09/12Z TAFs...LIFR and IFR low clouds and fog have developed in most west side valleys and will expand in coverage this morning. Some of this fog has been freezing fog, including in the Rogue Valley near the airport, as temperatures in the west side valleys dropped into the upper 20's and lower 30's.

Otherwise, mid and high level clouds are advancing into the northwest portion of southwest Oregon ahead of a warm front. The front will be focused north of our area today while high pressure builds into northern California.

Ceilings are expected to lift and break around 18Z this morning, with some mixing from the passage of the warm front. But, a further increase in higher level clouds may result in more of a lifting rather than the dissipation of the low clouds and freezing fog.

This afternoon into the evening, rain is expected at the coast into northern and central Douglas County, especially from Cape Blanco northward, including North Bend and Roseburg. This will also likely produce patchy MVFR and obscuration of the higher peaks of the Coastal Range. Meantime, VFR is expected elsewhere before patchy fog develops in parts of the Rogue Valley again.
-DW/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 245 AM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/

DISCUSSION...Strong subsidence beneath high pressure is leading to a typical weather regime across SW Oregon and northern California early this morning. Low clouds and fog are impacting many coastal/west side valleys, but clear skies prevail for surrounding higher terrain and for most areas east of the Cascades (although some freezing fog is impacting portions of the Highway 97 corridor between Chemult and Chiloquin).

Upper ridging will flatten over the area today and satellite imagery is showing some high clouds moving in over the top currently. A warm front offshore will lift northward along the coast and this will allow cloud cover to increase across far NW sections where there is a chance for a little light rain. Overall, though, we're not expecting much this far south today. The bulk of the precip will be farther north (north of the Douglas/Lane County border). Warm air advection will result in rising snow levels tonight into Sunday (mostly above 6000 feet) as the flow aloft becomes WSW. Moisture will also increase during this time period as the cold front offshore approaches. Precip will inch south and eastward probably reaching the Rogue Valley/Medford area sometime Sunday afternoon or (more likely) Sunday evening.
Some light precipitation will push east of the Cascades as the cold front moves onshore Sunday night, but precip chances/amounts over there will be lower. Coastal areas will have a another good soaker with most areas receiving 0.75-1.50 inches of rain.
Amounts of 0.50-1.00 inch will be common for areas north of Highway 140 in the Cascades (but snow levels will be high enough to keep amounts restricted to the highest elevations - there could be an inch or two up around Crater Lake). West side valleys will see a marked decrease in amounts. While the Umpqua Basin near Roseburg could end up with 0.50 of an inch or so, that drops to less than 0.25 of an inch for Medford/Ashland with next to nothing in the Shasta Valley of NorCal. Showers linger in NW flow aloft into Monday, but precip chances will diminish through the day and especially by sunset.

The disturbance will push to our east Monday night and eventually form a closed low that will settle into the Great Basin Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in another period of upper ridging here with west side valley nighttime/morning low clouds/fog, but clear cold nights and sunny, cool afternoons in NE Cal and over the east side. Models show a weakening cold front running into the ridge and fizzling near the coast Wednesday night. Other than areas along the coast, this front doesn't provide much hope for precipitation. The ridge is likely to resume its influence over the West again Thursday/Friday. Then, guidance continues to show a deep upper trough off the California coast that brings a chance of rain/mountains snow back into the area next weekend. -Spilde

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Saturday December 9, 2023
An approaching warm front this morning will result in increased wind speeds and a significant and rapid increase in wave heights through tonight.

Seas will become hazardous to small craft north of Cape Blanco this morning and across the remainder of the waters this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory hazard now includes the waters north of Cape Blanco later this morning, and now extends across all waters this afternoon through Sunday evening.

Winds and seas will be at a peak tonight with seas at 12 to 17 feet at 13 to 14 seconds. During this peak, seas will be highest and gale force gusts are possible north of Cape Arago. A cold front will follow Sunday into Sunday evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late Sunday night.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday with low seas of 3 to 4 ft anticipated. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 17 to 18 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
-DW/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PST Sunday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-370.

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Florence
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:32 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM PST     6.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:15 PM PST     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
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Sat -- 03:43 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:09 PM PST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:27 PM PST     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,