Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:35PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:40 PM PST (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 249 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gales and steep to very steep seas will continue today as a front makes its way through the coastal waters. Winds will diminish late tonight into Thursday morning, however, seas will remain elevated due to building steep long period west swell, which will likely produce hazardous bar crossings and very active surf zones Thursday morning through Friday evening. Seas will diminish Saturday into Monday, but should remain steep through the weekend as the active weather pattern continues.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 112250 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 250 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM. An active weather pattern is in store through late this week as a strong jet stream moves into the area and remains overhead through Friday bringing weather systems into the area. A front, associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska, is nearing the coast and will gradually move inland Thursday. Additional shortwaves will move across the area Thursday night and Friday resulting in widespread showers across the CWA.

Ahead of the front, snow levels have begun to rise today and are currently around 5500 feet elevation. Models continue to show snow levels will rise to around 6000 to 6500 feet and locally up to 7000 feet tonight then remain high through Thursday afternoon before lowering to 4500 to 5500 feet Thursday night, then down to near 4000 to 5000 feet Friday.

Light to moderate precipitation has spread into the coast, coastal mountains and portions of the west side this afternoon. Precipitation will increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon and this evening and continue through the day Thursday with widespread moderate precipitation expected across the area. Locally heavy precipitation is expected in the coast ranges and Southern Oregon Cascades as well. Much of this precipitation will fall as rain late today through Thursday afternoon, except over the higher mountains above 6000 feet where snow is likely. Expect precipitation to turn more showery Thursday evening and night and given the continued upper level jet over the area and shortwave activity, widespread showers are likely. Storm total precipitation amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected along the coast, in the coast ranges and across the Southern Oregon Cascades with generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches over other inland areas (except lower amounts in eastern Lake County and valleys in Modoc County). Along the coast and across western portions of the area, local ponding of water on roadways may occur with this rain. Area rivers and streams will also see some rises due to rainfall but hydrologic forecasts do not indicate flooding on the main rivers.

Snow will be a concern since snow levels are expected to lower Thursday evening through early Friday morning down to 4000 to 5000 feet elevation in southwest Oregon and down to 5000 to 5500 feet elevation across Northern California. Continued shower activity during this time will result in snow over the mountains, especially in the Cascades. During the day on Friday, expect showers to increase as an upper level shortwave and weak low move into the area from the west. On Friday, snow levels will likely stay down around 4000 to 5000 feet in southwest Oregon and slightlyhigher in northern California.

Given the active showery pattern Thursday with increasing showers Friday, moderate snow is expected in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet elevation, especially in the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas, Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Of note, for areas above 6000 feet in the Southern Oregon Cascades, moderate to heavy snow accumulations are expected to begin earlier - during the day Thursday - and continue Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. A winter weather advisory is in effect for the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet (please see the WSWMFR for details).

Lastly, of note, winds will increase tonight into Thursday as a mid level 700 mb 45-60kt westerly jet moves over the area. This will result in breezy to gusty southwest winds across much of the area on Thursday with the strongest winds over the higher mountains and in the Summer Lake area. Gusty southwest winds are expected in the Summer Lake area with gusts of 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for this area (please see the NPWMFR for details). In the southern Shasta Valley, models continue to show gusty southerly winds tonight into Thursday morning but winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria, with gusts to around 30 to 40 mph.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Wednesday) . There's decent agreement among the operational and ensemble models that the pattern will remain fairly active during the forecast period. It's all going to come down to the timing and details of individual systems.

On Saturday, we'll be on the colder side of things as a weak upper trough will move in from the northwest in the afternoon. Snow levels are expected to range between 3000 and 3500 feet and much will depend on precip intensity. For the most part it should be on the light side during the day, but could pick up in intensity Saturday night with snow levels around 3000 feet. Even then snow accumulations are not expected to be a high concern for the higher passes along the Cascades, Siskiyou Summit and Diamond Lake area. Preliminary estimates show generally 1-3 inches from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, but details on this could change in the coming days.

The operational models show different solutions Sunday through Sunday night. The ECMWF shows overrunning precipitation from a warm front moving into the area while the GFS is drier with warm frontal precipitation arriving Monday morning. This is also in line with the respective ensembles. For now did not make much change to the pops during this time.

Ridging builds into the area Monday with dry conditions expected. Another upper through could end up splitting as it moves into the shortwave ridging Tuesday. There's a timing difference with this one and we could end up stying dry, but confidence remains low. More systems will had in our direction Wedensday through Wednesday night. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 11/18Z TAFs . Patchy areas of LIFR/IFR fog are expected to improve to VFR conditions for the Medford Airport early this afternoon. The TAF shows improving conditions at 21z, but confidence on exact timing is medium at best, so watch for updates on this. Despite improving conditions, MVFR ceilings with terrain obscurations are expected to remain the predominate conditions along and west of the Cascades through this afternoon. The exception will be at Roseburg where VFR ceilings should last into this evening.

East of the Cascades . VFr conditions will continue into this afternoon, followed by MVFR ceilings this evening for the remainder of the TAF period.

The main hazard will be the chance for low level wind shear along the coast, including North Bend and for Roseburg through this evening. This was also added to the Medford TAF, but it's not expected to be an impact until this evening. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 830 AM PST Wednesday, 11 December 2019 . The next front in the series is expected today and will be stronger than the previous, bringing gale force winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas. Gales will primarily impact areas from Cape Blanco northward but very steep seas and gusty winds will impact some areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds diminish late tonight into Thursday. However, seas will remain elevated with a high and steep long period west swell building in during this time. Swell dominated seas of about 15-17 feet at 17 seconds will impact the coastal waters from Thursday morning into Friday evening, likely impacting bar crossings and crab pots. Seas will gradually lower Saturday into Monday but remain steep. Active weather will continue through the weekend with periods of moderate to heavy rain. BR-y/Keene

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for ORZ031. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday above 5000 feet in the for ORZ027.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday for PZZ356-376. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-370.

CC/CC/CC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi40 min 51°F12 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi64 min S 7 G 20 50°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi46 minSSW 76.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F45°F86%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4S4S3SW5SW3S6SW5S4S4S6SE8S5S4SE6S4S6SE9S8S5S5S5S11SW7
1 day agoCalmSE5S6SE9S6SW6SE5SE6SE5S5S5CalmS3S7SW4SW4SE7SE5S5SE7SE6S4S4S3
2 days agoCalmSE3SE5SE6S3S3SE4CalmSE3NE6CalmE3SE4SE6SE8SE6SE5CalmNE3CalmCalmSW3E5E3

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:36 AM PST     5.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM PST     2.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:34 AM PST     7.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:49 PM PST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.554.23.32.72.63.145.36.57.37.36.75.53.82.10.7-0.3-0.501.22.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:47 AM PST     5.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:55 AM PST     2.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:46 AM PST     7.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM PST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:14 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.65.24.43.52.82.62.93.95.16.47.37.575.94.32.50.9-0.1-0.5-0.10.92.43.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.