Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:03 AM PDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:48PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 226 Am Pdt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Quiet conditions with swell dominated seas continue through this afternoon. Seas will transition to wind driven as a thermal trough over the south coast strengthens this evening, resulting in increasing north winds and steep to very steep seas south of cape blanco. Gusty winds and steep seas will expand northward and closer to shore Wednesday. Brief improvement is expected late Thursday into Friday, but conditions become hazardous late Friday and persist through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221046
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
346 am pdt Tue oct 22 2019

Discussion A short wave disturbance and surface cold front
will push through the area today. Moisture with the front is
limited, so other than a little light rain north and west of a
line roughly from CAPE blanco to roseburg to toketee falls, it
will be dry today with varying amounts of clouds and sun
(sunnier south and east, cloudier north and west).

Surface high pressure will build into the pacnw tonight and
Wednesday and this will lead to the development of a thermal
trough along the coast. The resulting offshore e-ne winds will
cause significant drying of the air mass with downslope warming
(chetco effect) expected all the way to to coast near brookings.

Wednesday will be warmer than today down there, and Thursday looks
like it will reach into the low to mid 80s. Cool or even chilly
mornings in the valleys inland west of the cascades will yield to
milder afternoons. But, a fairly low inversion height will
prevent much mixing, and with the lowering october Sun angle, it
won't get as warm as it could with a well-mixed atmosphere. Highs
will be mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s today and Wednesday,
then in the low to mid 70s on Thursday. East side areas will have
highs mostly in the 60s.

The thermal trough and offshore flow will weaken Thursday night
into Friday with more marine influence developing along the coast.

But, inland areas will remain quite dry and mild Friday afternoon.

The next upper trough will dive southeastward across british
columbia Friday night and then move through the pacnw on
Saturday. Once again, moisture with this system is limited, so
precipitation chances are small. The main effect will be a net
cooling of 5-15 degrees across the area Saturday, with the
coolest air moving in east of the cascades. There will also be
another period of drying offshore ne-e winds Saturday night
through Monday. -spilde

Aviation For the 22 06z tafs... Fog and low level ceilings will
likely develop along the coast tonight bringing lifr conditions.

Clearing may take well into the late morning, when moderate north
winds develop. Uncertainty exists with the umpqua valley, while
fog is not expected near roseburg in the morning, as CIGS should
not exceed MVFR; the current clearing does not create confidence.

Ifr conditions are well within climatology and soundings do show a
pattern familiar to fog and low stratus development. However,
chose to follow more closely to the MOS and hires cross sections
for cigs. A weak front moving off to the north of north bend and
roseburg areas could cause light rain, reducing vis until mid-
morning. Other than some light fog nearby klamath falls early this
morning, expectVFR to prevail elsewhere through this TAF period.

-miles

Marine Updated 215 am pdt Tuesday 22 october 2019... Quiet
conditions with swell dominated seas will continue through this
afternoon. A thermal trough develops today and strengthens this
evening, bringing the return of strong gusty north winds. Seas
transition to wind driven, becoming steep to very steep and
hazardous. Warning level seas are expected south of gold beach late
tonight through Thursday with advisory level conditions expected for
most areas elsewhere. Conditions should improve briefly late
Thursday into Friday, but the improvement will be short-lived.

Hazardous conditions, possible gales, are likely to return late
Friday and persist into the weekend. Br-y

Fire weather After today's front, the air mass will dry out
significantly over the next 24-48 hours. An increasing pressure
gradient will develop over the area tonight and this will bring
strengthening e-ne winds (15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph) over
the upper slopes ridges of far SW oregon and also northern
california into Wednesday morning. Despite the wind, rh recovery
tonight into Wed am should be generally good with some moderate
recoveries expected over the higher terrain of western siskiyou
county. Offshore e-ne winds will peak in strength Wednesday night
into Thursday morning (20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph) and this
could result in a few areas reaching critical fire weather
thresholds due to the combination of the winds and lowering rh.

This is most likely over the curry coast ranges and also higher
elevations of western siskiyou county. Recent rainfall has caused
fuels to moisten in these areas since last week, so will let day
shift reassess fuel status and make any decisions with respect to
fire weather headlines. We will still highlight the risk in our
fire weather planning forecast. East winds will weaken Thursday
night, but mid-upper slope and ridge humidity will remain quite
low with some poor rh recovery. Another upper trough will dive
southward into the pacnw on Saturday repeating the ne-e winds low
rh regime over the weekend. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this
evening to 5 pm pdt Thursday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Thursday for pzz376.

Mas br-y


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi34 min 56°F8 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi88 min SE 4.1 G 7 56°F1028.3 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi70 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast59°F54°F83%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE5S6S8S7S10SW10SW8W6W5SW3S3S4S6S4SE8SE8--SE5S5S9SE7S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Tue -- 12:39 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:19 AM PDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM PDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.70.30.4123.24.255.45.24.84.13.432.93.23.94.85.55.85.75.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:30 AM PDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:27 AM PDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:53 PM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM PDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.90.40.40.91.934.155.45.454.33.632.93.23.84.75.55.95.95.34.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.