Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:50PM Friday February 21, 2020 7:40 AM PST (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:26AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 216 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Elevated seas will persist and remain below advisory levels today. Gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas are expected south of cape blanco Friday night into Saturday. This will be followed by steep west swell affecting all the waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Conditions will likely be hazardous to smaller crafts through most of the weekend. Additional swell trains will move in next week while a thermal trough continues to bring periods of gusty winds south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 211123 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 323 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2020

DISCUSSION. Split flow is the predominant weather pattern across the western portion of North America currently. This is resulting in the northern branch of the Pacific jet being directed well to our north into British Columbia (BC). Meanwhile, a closed low is off the southern California coast and becoming embedded within the southern branch of the jet. Our forecast area is right in between, resulting in dry, tranquil weather.

The dry weather will continue the next 2 days with some high clouds at times, but also likely plenty of sunshine. The high clouds were prevalent yesterday and some are still affecting southeast parts of the CWA early this morning, but these will mostly dissipate as the closed low ejects eastward across southern California and into the southwestern U.S. today into Saturday. Patchy fog is showing up on satellite in the coastal valleys of Coos County and the Umpqua Valley of Douglas County this morning. These too will dissipate yielding a mostly sunny midday and afternoon. A weak northern branch shortwave will move into BC and this could bring some high clouds, but no precip to NW sections again later this afternoon. Overall, a nice day with highs in the 50s and 60s and perhaps a few spots in the lower Klamath River Valley up near 70 degrees.

Expect a bit more of a marine push tonight along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Valley toward daybreak Saturday. So, should be at least a little more coverage of low clouds and/or fog in those areas. It'll remain mostly clear elsewhere with low temperatures very close to normal. Another dry day on Saturday with temps similar to what they are today east of the Cascades, but perhaps a few degrees cooler west of the Cascades.

For almost a week now, we've been watching a strong short wave expected to arrive into the PacNW the second half of this weekend. Models have had their various iterations of how this system would evolve, but have come in line showing a fairly fast- moving low pressure forming over the Pacific, deepening to about 990-995mb, then moving onshore into Vancouver Island around Noon on Sunday. Since this system will be moving quickly and not digging until it's way past us, its impacts will be fairly muted. The cold front will move through Sunday with a period of rain likely along the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco and also north of the Umpqua Divide over to the Cascades. Snow amounts confined to areas mostly above 4000 feet in the Cascades are only expected to be an inch or two. Precipitation will largely skip over the Rogue Valley (Medford), northern California and the east side, but there could be a shower in places. The biggest effect from this system will likely be the wind. It'll become breezy west of the Cascades Sunday afternoon and since the core of the strongest 700mb flow is coming during the afternoon/evening, gusty west winds could warrant advisories over portions of the east side (Summer Lake). After that, showers diminish and end overnight into Monday with an upper ridge rebuilding offshore, then moving onshore Tuesday. The pattern seems to be repeating with another round of offshore east winds and drying into the middle to latter part of next week. This should bring cold mornings again, but milder afternoons with high temperatures above normal. -Spilde

AVIATION. For the 21/12Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions will prevail for all areas except for North Bend and the smaller valleys around that region as LIFR conditions build this morning. Satellite shows some very localized fog and low ceilings and that probably won't clear up tonight as winds remain out of the southeast.

VFR conditions will prevail later today as high pressure remains in control and eventually burns off the fog by the afternoon hours. -Smith

MARINE. Updated 245 AM PST Friday, 21 Feb 2020 . Seas will remain elevated through Friday with the west swell settling in. A developing thermal trough later Friday night will bring gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas to areas south of Cape Blanco through Saturday afternoon. This will be followed by steep west swell affecting all the waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Another northwest swell will arrive Sunday night into Monday with seas peaking near 14 feet. Models agree that high pressure aloft will help the thermal trough redevelop at the surface, bringing another round of gusty north winds and steep seas to areas south of Cape Blanco. -Keene/Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS/CZS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi41 min 50°F8 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi65 min E 1.9 G 2.9 49°F1023 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi47 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist Patches Fog28°F26°F92%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmNW4N8N6N6N6N6N5N5N4W4SW3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN5N4N7NE8NE8NE9N7N6NW3CalmCalmN5CalmCalmSE3NE4N5CalmN5NW4NW5W4
2 days agoN10N7NE5NE9N9N10N10N11N17N12N8N6N6CalmCalmN4N4N9CalmNE4CalmCalmN4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:14 AM PST     5.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:31 AM PST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:11 AM PST     6.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:19 PM PST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.65.44.843.22.72.73.24.25.46.36.86.65.84.531.50.3-0.2-0.10.723.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM PST     5.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM PST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM PST     6.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:30 PM PST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.75.65.14.23.32.72.63.14.15.26.36.96.96.24.93.41.80.5-0.2-0.20.51.83.34.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.