Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday August 18, 2019 12:10 AM PDT (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 808 Pm Pdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Strong north winds and choppy wind driven seas will continue through tonight with gales expected south of gold beach and conditions hazardous to small craft expected elsewhere. Winds will ease tonight into Sunday, but there will still be significant fresh swell over the waters and most of the area will remain hazardous to small craft. Conditions improve further late Sunday and these lower seas should remain through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 180550
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1050 pm pdt Sat aug 17 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Discussion No updates planned this evening. As expected, the
weather this evening is practically indistinguishable from last
evening. There is very little difference in sensible weather: it's
mainly clear and winds and temperatures are virtually identical.

There are, however, less perceptible changes afoot. Namely,
pressures are lower than yesterday, and this is a sign that the
thermal trough that has been parked along the coast is beginning
to shift inland. Guidance does show the thermal trough continuing
to move inland over the next 24 hours, and this will result in the
most noticeable changes along the coast. Gone tomorrow will be
the warm temperatures that have been experienced over the last
couple of days, especially at the south coast as the chetco effect
ends. Stratus will move onto at least the north coast tonight,
and while it may stay offshore of the curry coast tonight, it will
try to push in later tomorrow. Inland areas, by contrast, will
likely see a similar to slightly warmer day tomorrow as the
thermal trough moves through. This is all relatively well covered
by the going forecast. -wright

Aviation For the 18 06z tafs... At the coast and just
offshore... Marine stratus is starting to develop along the coast
near north bend and is expected to increase in coverage during the
night. Ifr ceilings are expected to develop later tonight and early
Sunday morning mainly north of CAPE blanco. The timing of when lower
conditions develop in the north bend TAF is low to moderate, so
watch for updates. Onshore flow will be a little stronger than last
night allowing marine stratus to develop in the coquille valley late
tonight. The marine stratus may develop in portions of the umpqua
divide towards daybreak Sunday, but were not expecting the lower
conditions to move into roseburg.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
gusty winds late in the afternoon and evening hours at medford,
klamath falls and roseburg. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 17 august 2019... A strong
thermal trough pattern will continue through this evening, then
slowly weaken Sunday. This will produce strong north winds and
choppy wind driven seas across the area, peaking late this afternoon
and evening. Gales and very steep seas are expected south of gold
beach. Winds and seas will exceed small craft criteria over most of
the remainder of the area. Winds will diminish into Sunday, but
there will still be significant fresh northwest swell over the
waters and most of the area will remain hazardous to small craft.

Seas will subside further into Monday. Winds and seas should be
below small craft advisory levels Monday morning through Tuesday.

From Wednesday into Thursday a mixture of two swells may bring the
return of conditions hazardous to small craft. Keene br-y

Prev discussion issued 430 pm pdt Sat aug 17 2019
updated aviation discussion.

Short term... An upper level ridge is centered offshore and is
located surface thermal trough along the coast. This pattern is
bringing clear skies and warm and dry conditions to the area today.

A mild chetco effect continues today in the brookings area with
daytime temperatures in the 80s. The upper ridge will weaken
slightly on Sunday as an upper trough moves down over british
columbia but warm and dry conditions will remain in place across
inland areas. At the coast, the surface thermal trough will weaken
tonight into Sunday. The upper ridge will shift inland over
region on Monday then remain in place on Tuesday as a frontal
system approaches from the west.

With the thermal trough weakening along the coast tonight and
Sunday, expect lighter winds at the coast and over the coastal
mountains. Marine low stratus and patchy fog is expected to
develop tonight and persist into Sunday morning, especially for
areas north of CAPE blanco and from brookings south. Low clouds
are also expected to spread into the umpqua basin late tonight and
Sunday morning. These low clouds will gradually clear in the late
morning. Areas near brookings are not expected to see a chetco
effect tomorrow and will see a return to near normal temperatures
on Sunday due to weakening of the offshore flow thermal trough
pattern.

Inland, expect continued warm and dry weather on Sunday with high
temperatures similar to today for most areas. Breezy to gusty
southwest to west winds are expected east of the cascades along
with gusty south winds in the shasta valley on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday, the warm and dry weather pattern continues.

High temperatures may trend slightly warmer for inland areas as
the upper ridge strengthens over the area on Tuesday. Then models
continue to show a frontal system approaching the coast late
Tuesday.

Long term... Wednesday through Saturday... Two fronts will move
towards the area but weaken and dissipate as they move inland
into the ridge. So expect inland areas to continue to see warm and
dry conditions. Coastal areas will see increased clouds with
these fronts.

Models are showing fairly good agreement that the first of these
fronts will arrive late Wednesday. This front is expected to
weaken as it moves onshore and into the ridge. Some light drizzle
or showers are possible near the coast, mainly north of cape
blanco, Wednesday evening and night. Otherwise, expect warm and
dry weather to continue over the area on Wednesday and Thursday.

Another front may approach the coast late Friday into Saturday.

Models indicate this front may be weaker than the first front. So
have kept dry weather in the forecast for this period, including
at the coast.

Fire weather... Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 7 august 2019... Warm
and dry conditions are expected across the area for the next
several days. Temperatures will remain stable through Monday
before becoming a bit hotter by Tuesday into Friday. Gusty winds
with low humidities will be seen for a short period Sunday
afternoon in the shasta valley and east of the cascades, but are
expected to remain below red flag criteria.

Confidence in the long term forecast remains low, but models are
showing a distinct trend towards continuing dry and warm conditions
for next week, with above normal temperatures resulting from a
building ridge aloft. There are a few indications that a weak
impulse could pass through the region with instability producing an
increased risk for thunder Thursday, but mid level moisture is too
low for any decent vertical development at this time. -sven

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Sunday for orz021.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Sunday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning until 5 am pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi41 min 62°F6 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi95 min NNE 4.1 G 7 58°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi17 minN 710.00 miFair61°F53°F75%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5--NW7N6N6--CalmNW4NW4N7N10N10
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1 day ago------CalmNW4----N5N9N13N13N10N8
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2 days agoN5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4N7N7N10N9N8N6NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
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Sun -- 02:55 AM PDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:39 AM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM PDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:07 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.955.96.25.853.72.31.20.50.40.923.44.65.55.85.54.73.72.721.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Sun -- 03:07 AM PDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:50 AM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM PDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:04 PM PDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:07 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.74.95.96.36.15.342.61.40.60.30.81.83.24.55.55.95.7542.92.11.82.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.