Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:55PM Monday July 13, 2020 7:42 AM PDT (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:08AMMoonset 1:21PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 252 Am Pdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A thermal trough will strengthen into Wednesday. This will result in steep to very steep seas with an area of gales south of port orford beyond 3 nm from shore. The thermal trough is expected to move inland Thursday with a slight and brief improvement in conditions. Seas are likely to gradually increase late in the week as high pressure centered far offshore builds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 131104 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 404 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION. Typical summer weather is expected for much of this week and into next weekend. High pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific will strengthen this week and the Four Corners High will shift eastward. This will leave the area under a stable west to northwest flow that will continue into the weekend, resulting in benign weather for the week. A thermal trough along the coast will be our daily weather driver for much of the week. This will bring a period of offshore (east to northeasterly) flow with gusty north winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. Temperatures will increase, but remain seasonable around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For this time of year, that equates to mid 90s for West Side valleys, mid to upper 80s east of the Cascades and mid to upper 90s for Northern California. Also, expect the Chetco Effect to develop with low 80s expected for the Brookings area Tuesday into Wednesday. The warmest temperatures are expected Wednesday when the thermal trough moves inland, and afternoon highs reach into the upper 90s for West Side valleys.

Easterly flow under the thermal trough pattern will limit the extent of the marine layer over the next few days. Unlike recent mornings last week, skies are clear for much of the forecast area this morning. There's bit of stratus along the coast in the Brookings area and in the Coquille Basin. There may be some clouds that fill in the southern portion of the Umpqua and Coquille Basins over the next few hours, but that should be the extent of the marine influence this morning. Over the next few mornings, expect even less in terms of coverage, as northeasterly winds trend higher tonight into Wednesday.

The thermal trough pattern will be disrupted Thursday as a shortwave moves through in the northwest flow aloft. This will likely be the warmest day for the East Side while the West Side will see a few degrees of cooling. Models continue to hint at weak low pressure off the California Coast. However, it's not the ideal set up for thunderstorm development in our area. We'll remain more under the influence of broad troughing to the north and most of the instability and moisture will be focused along the Sierras to the south of the forecast area. The deterministic models support this as well as the GEFS. However, the day shift introduced a slight chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms for the far southeastern portion of Modoc County. It's not out of the realm of possibility that something moves north from the Sierras into the area, so have left that in the forecast at this time.

Beyond Thursday, the thermal trough returns Friday into Saturday but will be weaker. Temperatures away from the coast will rebound, but won't be quite as warm as what we're expecting Wednesday. Thunderstorm parameters are weak for the rest of the weekend, so the forecast remains dry over the weekend. However, we'll continue to monitor model trends and update as necessary. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 13/12Z TAF Cycle . LIFR near Brookings and in the southern Coquille Valley near Powers is expected to dissipate around 15Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into this evening with gusty, breezy afternoon and evening winds, strongest near the coast. An area of LIFR is possible along and near shore from Cape Blanco northward late this evening into Tuesday morning. -DW

MARINE. Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, 13 July 2020 . A thermal trough will strengthen into Wednesday. Gales and very steep hazardous seas south of Cape Sebastian beyond 5 nm from shore will expand to areas south of Port Orford beyond 3 nm from shore this afternoon, with small craft advisory conditions elsewhere. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening with a potential for very steep hazardous seas to spread north of Cape Blanco to include the waters just south of Bandon.

The thermal trough is expected to move inland Thursday with a slight and brief improvement in conditions. Seas and northerly winds are likely to gradually increase late in the week as high pressure centered far offshore builds. -DW

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 400 AM PDT Monday, 13 July 2020 . No fire weather concerns through at least the middle of the week but fuels will likely dry out with breezy and warm to hot conditions. Upper level troughing moves east of the forecast area and the Four Corners High shifts south and eastward. Meanwhile, high pressure develops and strengthens over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will put the area under stable northwest flow aloft that will persist through at least the middle of the week. General winds will shift to a northerly direction today through Wednesday, and a thermal trough will develop, accompanying an overall warming trend (peaking around 5 to 10 degrees above normal). Nighttime and morning northeast winds over the high terrain from the Cascades west will trend higher from tonight through Tuesday night, strongest over the Kalmiopsis and western Siskiyou County. Additionally, overnight recoveries will dip into the poor to moderate category, especially in Western Siskiyou County and Coast Range.

Also of note for this upcoming week's weather, north to south oriented valleys west of the Cascades, like the Illinois and Umpqua, will feature the strongest winds as the thermal trough develops. Overall, this week will feature typical summer conditions will little to no chances of precipitation through much of the week.

The thermal trough pattern will be disrupted Thursday as a shortwave moves through in the northwest flow aloft. This will likely be the warmest day for the East Side while the West Side will see a few degrees of cooling. Recoveries will be improved across the Coast Range and in Western Siskiyou Friday morning onward.

Models continue to hint at weak low pressure off the California Coast Thursday into the weekend. However, it's not the ideal set up for thunderstorm development in our area. We'll remain more under the influence of broad troughing to the north and most of the instability and moisture will be focused along the Sierras to the south of the forecast area. The deterministic models support this as well as the GEFS. However, the day shift introduced a slight chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms for the far southeastern portion of Modoc County. It's not out of the realm of possibility that something moves north from the Sierras into the area, so have left that in the forecast at this time.

Beyond Thursday, the thermal trough returns Friday into Saturday but will be weaker. Temperatures away from the coast will rebound, but northeast winds will trend weaker compared to earlier in the week. Thunderstorm parameters are weak for the rest of the weekend, so the forecast remains dry over the weekend. However, we'll continue to monitor model trends and update as necessary. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

MNF/DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi76 min 56°F5 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi66 min NE 6 G 7 67°F1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair54°F46°F77%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N73N7N8N12
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2 days agoCalmNE3NE5N5N655CalmNW5N8N8NE6N5N7CalmCalmNE3SE4S4CalmS4CalmS6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:23 AM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:49 AM PDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:41 PM PDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.21.81.92.32.93.644.13.93.42.82.21.81.722.73.74.65.45.75.75.24.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:34 AM PDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:01 AM PDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:52 PM PDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:31 PM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:56 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.31.91.82.22.83.544.24.13.632.31.81.722.63.54.55.35.85.85.44.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.