Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:36PM Saturday March 28, 2020 4:57 PM PDT (23:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 210 Pm Pdt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Active weather will bringing periods of increased southerly winds. Winds will reach low end advisory levels and seas will be wind driven and steep, especially north of gold beach through Saturday night. Conditions will subside below advisory levels Sunday afternoon. SWell will begin increasing Sunday night and another front will move onshore Sunday night into Monday. The front approaching Sunday night may be strong enough for winds to approach gales, especially in coastal waters north of cape blanco. High pressure will build offshore Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkton, OR
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location: 43.85, -123.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 282149 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 249 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SHORT TERM. The next 48-72 hours (through Tuesday) will continue to be active with several disturbances moving through the area. This will bring unsettled weather with showers/periods of rain and some mountain snow. The strongest system will move through late Sunday night through Monday night. Since we have been so dry through most of the winter and into the early part of spring, precipitation with these systems will be mostly beneficial and welcome.

An upper level trough offshore will continue to move southeastward tonight and into northern California on Sunday. Moist southwest flow aloft in advance of this trough is bringing some rain showers to the area this afternoon and will continue to do so through tonight, but precipitation amounts will be generally light. Another "kicker" trough is following closely behind this system and will send a cold front onshore into Washington and Oregon on Sunday with more showers. Precipitation with this front may be a little heavier, but still primarily on the light side. Snow levels will waver between 4000 and 5000 feet during this time frame, but with accumulating snow mainly staying above the higher passes. Tonight through Sunday evening, amounts of 2-5 inches are forecast in the Cascades above 5000 feet, but road accumulation even there will probably only occur during the late night and morning hours; otherwise, it should melt due to higher sun angle and warm ground during the day. Showers should taper off at least for a while Sunday evening.

The next fast-moving disturbance will bring precipitation back to coastal areas overnight Sunday with the cold front moving onshore on Monday. Since the flow will be primarily WSW, we expect a period of moderate to heavy precipitation along the coast and also the adjacent Coast Ranges/Cascades with common liquid amounts of 0.50-2.00 inches. The heaviest amounts will be where orographic enhancement is maximized (Coast Ranges/Cascades north of Hwy 140). We are currently forecasting around 0.25 of an inch here in Medford. Some precipitation is also expected east of the Cascades, but with much lighter amounts. Advisory level west to southwest winds are a good bet east of the Cascades, especially in the Summer Lake area along Highway 31, on Monday/Monday evening ahead of the front (models indicate 700 mb winds close to 55 kt). Snow levels once again look to be mostly above 4500 feet, keeping the best snow above the main passes. Accumulating snow will again be mostly for elevations above 5000 feet, with several inches possible up around Crater and Diamond Lakes. Since much of the precipitation will be coming during the day up there, road snow will be mitigated somewhat, but with precipitation lingering Monday night, an advisory could be necessary for portions of zone 27.

The parent upper low will move across southern British Columbia on Tuesday, but this will keep showers going in moist onshore flow. Showers will be focused from the Cascades westward with snow levels remaining mostly 4000-5000 feet. Showers gradually diminish in coverage Tuesday night. -Spilde

LONG TERM. Wednesday through Saturday . The area will still be on the southern periphery of the upper level trough centered over central Canada Wednesday morning. Energy riding around the base of this low will maintain at least a slight chance of showers for the far northern and western portions of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. As the energy moves out of the area, showers will come to an end by late Wednesday and dry conditions will persist into the weekend.

Upper level ridging attempts to establish itself over the area Thursday, but shortwaves moving through the ridge will keep it from really strengthening. The models are in fairly good agreement up until this point. The GFS strengthens the ridge Friday while the EC maintains a flat ridge and brings a weak front with precipitation into the area. The GFS shows some precipitation with the shortwave as well, but is further north and less robust for our area compared to the EC. The majority of the ensembles for both models maintain dry weather during this period, so have opted to keep the forecast dry through the start of the weekend. Although conditions should be dry, there could be periods of increased cloudiness as shortwaves move through the area. A warming trend will commence Wednesday into the weekend with afternoon temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 28/18Z TAF Cycle . A showery pattern will bring a mix of mainly VFR and MVFR ceilings through tonight with areas of obscured terrain. Freezing levels will be 5000 to 5500 feet with showers most numerous near the coast and secondarily, over the higher terrain. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR late tonight into Sunday morning as another wave of precipitation moves into the area.

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 28 March 2020 . Active weather will bringing periods of increased southerly winds. Winds will reach low end advisory levels and seas will be wind driven and steep, especially north of Gold Beach through saturday night. Conditions will subside below advisory levels Sunday afternoon.

Swell will begin increasing Sunday night and another front will move onshore Sunday night into Monday. This front may be strong enough to create gale conditions in coastal waters north of Cape Blanco as the front is trapped along the coast. Current thinking is for winds to remain just below gales but, hi-res guidance is trending winds stronger, so the current hazardous seas watch could be upgraded to a gale watch in coming updates.

High pressure will build offshore Monday night into Tuesday. Northwest swell will peak Tuesday. -miles

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for PZZ350-370.

MAS/MNF/MB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 51 mi57 min 50°F9 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi81 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 50°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR27 mi63 minWSW 510.00 miLight Rain54°F48°F80%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEUG

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W4W4W4CalmS3SE4S4S5S3S4S3S7SE7SE7SE6SE7SE7S6S13S8S8SW6SW5
1 day agoW5SW5W5CalmW5SW4SW5SW4SW5S5S3CalmS4SE5S4S4S4SE7S8S9S8S7SW8W6
2 days agoW9W7NW3CalmS3SW3SE5S5SW4S4S4S5S6S4S6S5S4S5S5S5SW3W5CalmN8

Tide / Current Tables for Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon
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Florence
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:41 AM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM PDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM PDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.15.25.96.15.64.73.42.21.10.60.51.12.13.24.24.84.94.53.832.322.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:53 AM PDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:43 AM PDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM PDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:25 PM PDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.845.166.25.953.82.41.30.60.511.934.14.854.743.22.522.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.