Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hinesburg, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 206 PM EST Wednesday...

1. Light snow showers have redeveloped and will continue into the evening, especially across the mountains.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions to end the work week.

3. Warmer temperatures and chances for precipitation are expected this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 206 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Closed 850-500mb low across central Quebec continues to deepen over the next 24 hours, with an increase in moist cyclonic flow into northern NY and VT into this evening.
This should result in some reinvigoration of snow shower activity across northern areas and especially with orographic ascent in the the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens. Have indicated an additional dusting to 2" inches of snow accumulation overnight across roughly the northern half of the CWA Should see some locally higher totals of 2-4" across the higher summits from Camel's Hump northward to Jay Peak, and possibly along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Looking at generally dry snow with SLRs in the 18:1 to 20:1 range. With the additional light snow accumulations, some renewed minor road impacts are possible this evening. However, with snowfall rates expected to be lower, road impacts should not be as significant as what occurred during Tuesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure building eastward from the Great Lakes will allow orographic snow shower activity to wind down during the daytime hours on Thursday. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 20s in valley locations with skies trending partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. After a chilly start Friday morning with lows generally in the single digits, temperatures will rebound into the 25-30F range for afternoon highs. Fair and quiet weather conditions are anticipated with a surface ridge cresting over our region.

KEY MESSAGE 3: By late this weekend into the beginning of next week, temperatures will continue to warm, with above freezing temperatures expected across the region after a prolonged stretch of cold across the region. Daytime high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to reach into the mid to upper 30s, with some locations nearing 40 by mid-week. Normal highs this time of year are right around freezing, so this swing in temperatures will take us above seasonable normals for the first time this month. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation chances for this time period, although global deterministic guidance continues to trend towards a drier solution with low pressure passing well to our south. Some additional chances for precipitation will be possible early next week, with some rain possibly mixing into lower elevations given warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Snow showers continue to bring reduced visibilities and ceilings to many terminals this morning. A band of heavier snow has brought IFR conditions to KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK with these IFR conditions likely to continue until 9-10Z as snow will quickly move out of the area during the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings, for the most part, remain in the MVFR range with ceilings hovering between 1500 and 2500 ft. We should see gradual improvements to ceilings throughout the day starting at 12Z but some sites may stick with a 2500-2800 deck for much of the forecast period. It still looks like we will have a period of gusty winds later this morning into this afternoon but it'll have to wait until the snow moves out of the area.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible.
Slight chance SN.

CLIMATE
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday, February 16th. If that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.

EQUIPMENT
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.