Hinesburg, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hinesburg, VT

June 20, 2024 2:24 PM EDT (18:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 7:57 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hinesburg, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 201739 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
One more day of dangerous heat and humidity expected for today with highs in the 90s combining with humid conditions to create heat index values up to 100F. Please continue to take appropriate precautions to avoid heat stress as heat can have a compounding effect. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon into the evening, some of which could become strong to severe, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and hail.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1019 AM EDT Thursday...No significant changes needed with this update. Forecast area is largely dry ahead of our anticipated afternoon thunderstorms. Some spots in the Champlain Valley are a little slow to heat up with Lake Champlain so close and clouds overhead, but clear sky appears to approach, so no changes to our highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with this update as there is plenty of time for additional warming.
Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...One last day of oppressive heat and humidity today as we await the arrival of a cold front. We're already starting out quite mild and muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s while dewpoints generally range from 65 to 75F. We will once again warm well into the 80s and 90s by this afternoon. However, like the past couple of days, the development of showers and thunderstorms and associated cloud cover will keep heating less than optimal periodically through the afternoon. A cold front will start to cross the region from north to south during the afternoon as well, also helping to limit heating. Still, expect highs to range from the upper 80s across the north to the low/mid 90s in central and southern locations. Dewpoints will remain on the uncomfortable side, so heat index values of 90 to 100F are anticipated. Therefore, the Heat Advisory still remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. Please continue to follow the necessary precautions to avoid heat- related illnesses.

The other main concern for today is the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms. Like the past couple of days, instability will be ample due to the hot and muggy conditions; CAPE values of 1800+ J/kg are expected by this afternoon. As we saw yesterday, it doesn't take much to get thunderstorms going once they start to develop, and today, we actually have a trigger in the form of a cold front which will move out of Canada and into our northern areas this afternoon/evening. Also note ongoing convection east of Lake Ontario, and some CAM guidance indicates this activity could gradually shift E/NE through the morning hours, spreading into northern NY and perhaps central VT, though waning as it does so.
Should this occur, it could lessen instability for a bit in those areas, at least until the atmosphere has some time to recover.
However, it could also serve to lay some outflow or other boundaries, also helping to trigger additional convection this afternoon. Indeed, note that while some guidance is showing fairly cohesive convection firing up ahead of the cold front, there also looks to be another round potentially developing over portions of northern NY/VT, possibly from the morning's convection or perhaps even just from daytime heating. Either way, expect storms will become rather robust once they start to develop. Although shear isn't all that impressive, generally 25 kt or less at 0-6km, given the trends from yesterday, wouldn't be surprised for storms to become strong to locally severe, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Moisture is also very ample; PWATs will approach or even exceed 2 inches. With warm cloud depths exceeding 12 kft, expect very efficient rainfall processes. Hence heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorms today, and can't totally rule out some localized flash flooding, especially in areas that see multiple thunderstorms. The above thinking on storm threats matches well with SPC's latest Day 1 Convective Outlook, which has areas along/south of a Wanakena NY to Montpelier VT to Littleton, NH into a Slight Risk; areas north to the international border are included in a Marginal Risk. Meanwhile, the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC has nearly our entire area included in the Marginal Risk area, excluding only the St Lawrence Valley and far northern Adirondacks. Anyone with outdoor plans today should keep on top of the latest forecasts and remain weather aware with an eye to the sky. Make sure you have at least 2 reliable methods to receive weather warnings.

Showers and thunderstorms will wane after sunset as we lose daytime heating and instability lessens. The cold front will push south to just about the MA/VT/NH border by Friday morning. Unfortunately, the incoming airmass isn't much drier than our current one, so overnight lows will still be a touch uncomfortable, ranging from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Patchy fog will be possible by daybreak, especially in eastern VT valley locations that receive a decent amount of rain. Friday will see temperatures once again warm to above seasonal normals, but highs will be some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop again in the afternoon, though they will be focused mostly in central and southern portions of our forecast area, closer to the front. Severe weather is not anticipated.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 318 AM EDT Thursday...The cold front will stall just to the south of the region Friday night. There could be a few showers across southern Vermont but overall most places will stay dry.
Despite being north of the front, the Canadian high pressure struggles to gain much influence over the region so while being a little cooler and drier, it will not be overly refreshing. Lows only fall back into the 60s. The front will gradually work its way back north through the region on Saturday, bringing some showers and possible embedded thunderstorms with it. The instability should mostly be elevated so there is not much of a severe threat. PWATs will rise back between 1.5 to 2 inches and some areas of heavy rainfall are possible. With the slow moving nature of the front, entraining storms could lead to isolated flash flooding. However, there will not be much instability and the forcing from the front looks on the weaker side, so this should keep the threat of flash flooding more localized. Therefore, the marginal risk ERO from the WPC seems reasonable.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 318 AM EDT Thursday...The front looks to stall during the day on Sunday and its exact placement will be key for any flooding or severe threat. Ensemble guidance has shifted to favoring the front to stall a little farther north over Quebec. This would allow the region to get into the warm sector and modest CAPE would be able to develop. Right now, the GFS/Euro ensembles bring between a 30-60 percent chance of higher than 500 J/Kg across the area, with the highest values to the south and the lowest values to the north. With adequate deep layer shear in place, this could lead to the possibility of a couple severe storms. However, if the front were to stall over the region, there would likely be a higher flooding threat and less of a severe threat. Showers and storms look to train along the front, and with a low approaching from the west, the synoptic lift looks to increase as the day goes on. Also, PWATs will continue to be between 1.5 to 2 inches so there will be favorable conditions for heavy rainfall. The scenario could cause some flash flooding to occur, particularly since there will have been a decent amount of previous rainfall. Right now, the WPC has a moderate to slight ERO for the region due to the threat of the heavy rainfall and this makes sense. However, if the front continues to trend to the north, this might need to be downgraded. The low moves through the region Sunday night into Monday and brings widespread rainfall.
Behind it next week, drier and cooler air gradually filters down from Canada, but it will take some time for the air to feel refreshing.
AVIATION /
Through 18Z Monday...There is a line of showers and thunderstorms slowly moving eastward across northern New York. It will likely hold together and pass over MSS and SLK this morning. Whether it sticks together into PBG and Vermont is questionable but there will at least be scattered showers and thunderstorms around during the afternoon. Scattered storms will develop across northern New York as well in the afternoon, but due to their hit or miss nature it cannot be definitively determined if they will hit any of the airports or not. Besides being able to produce frequent lightning, the showers and storms will briefly lower visibilities at any terminal they reach to MVFR and possibly IFR. The storms should dissipate overnight before developing again tomorrow morning. Patchy fog will likely develop across the region tonight and there is a decent chance it develops at SLK and MSS.
Winds are generally light and southerly during this period. LLWS is not a concern.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 18Z Friday...Showers and thunderstorms are popping up around the region currently and will continue through at least 00Z. Any storms will have the potential to produce strong/gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph, small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and MVFR vis in heavier rain. Another round of potential fog after 06z Friday, especially in areas that see rain. Have gone with IFR conditions at at KMPV/KSLK, with some MVFR mentions at other stations. All stations should return to VFR after 13Z on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 92 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 90 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 88 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 88 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 86

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 73 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 65

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>011- 016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034- 035-087.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 16 sm30 minvar 0310 smPartly Cloudy Thunderstorm in Vicinity 93°F70°F47%30.18
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 24 sm33 minNNW 0610 smPartly Cloudy88°F70°F55%30.28
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Burlington, VT,




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