Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hinesburg, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Tranquil weather is expected today and Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.

2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather returns for the end of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3. Classic northern trough-southern ridge summer weather pattern will bring above normal temperatures and multiple small scale weather systems for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A pleasant day is expected across the region today as high pressure continues to nose into the region, bringing a period of drier weather. Some valley fog that has developed overnight will gradually dissipate through the morning, with mostly clear skies and sun expected for this afternoon. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Another day of tranquil conditions is expected for Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of ridging, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer under light southerly flow with daytime highs climbing into the 80s areawide.
Overall, it looks like a few pleasant summer days are on tap for the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into the latter half of the week, warm and unsettled weather is expected as the region remains sandwiched between high pressure to the south and an upper level trough to the north, with zonal flow bringing several different disturbances to the region. With broad southwesterly flow ushering in plenty of moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Latest guidance shows decent instability across the region Thursday afternoon, which combined with ample moisture and decent forcing may lead to thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with the potential for some stronger thunderstorms possible if all the ingredients align, although details will become clearer as we get closer. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are also expected for Friday. In addition to the shower chances increase later this week, the increased moisture will allow for dewpoints to climb into the upper 60s to near 70 at times, making it feel increasingly muggy and uncomfortable later this week. High temperatures will climb into the 80s, with heat indices climbing into the upper 80s and near 90.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Over the weekend, an upper low will mature on the western edge of the Hudson Bay while a large western upper high flattens out and settles east. This will produce a channeled flow pattern that commonly sends small scale features racing east in a speedy jet stream. This usually also means that the forecast predictability will be low, as coarse resolution models may not always accurately depict these smaller, convectively-influenced systems within the fast flow pattern.

Assessing different ensemble suites, most indicate largely above normal PWATs, although there is a signal for a brief pocket of dry air. Some have that dry air in place on Sunday, some have it on Monday, and a minority have it on Saturday. So Saturday appears the most likely to feature scattered (even numerous) showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Between Saturday and next Tuesday, there's at least a trough per day passing east, and so there could be some rain for each day. Towards the middle of next week, the large scale pattern doesn't change too much, but the northern trough- southern ridge pair shifts east. This will place us a bit more under the influence of the upper low. So after a period of above normal temperatures, we will start trending back towards normal. The question will be how amplified that upper low remains. Still showers can't be completely discounted given the upper low nearby.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Fog is in the process of lifting this morning. Skies will trend clear. For the most part, winds will be west to northwest at 5 to 9 knots, though we should warm enough that KPBG observes a lake breeze this afternoon, though with some uncertainty on timing. A few gusts 15 to 18 knots are likely at KMPV, KEFK, and KMSS. After 22-00z, winds will trend light or terrain driven. Some thin high clouds could approach from the south, but did add 2SM from 08z to the end of this TAF cycle for KSLK and KMPV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.