Bloomington, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bloomington, MN

June 14, 2024 11:46 AM CDT (16:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 9:02 PM
Moonrise 12:38 PM   Moonset 12:37 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloomington, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 559 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024


- More widespread showers and thunderstorms likely Saturday and Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- An intense heat wave will build across the eastern third of the country next week with the Upper Midwest on its western periphery. This will mean periods of hot and humid conditions and multiple rounds of thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Clear skies this morning will set the stage for a beautiful day with warm temperatures and low humidity. The dry conditions will prevail through tonight. A shortwave will eject northeast from the Four Corners region late tonight and could begin spreading showers to southern MN by early Saturday. A 40 kt LLJ and pwats as high as 2.0 inches are likely to accompany the shortwave across the area Saturday/Saturday night. While lapse rates will remain poor and instability limited initially, strong moisture flux should allow for a moderate to heavy round of showers and scattered storms to bring more healthy rainfall totals. The track of the center of the disturbance across IA will place southern/eastern MN and WI in the heaviest swath of rain, where 1-2 inches should easily fall. The amount of moisture progged with this system has increased over the last 24 hours, and efficient rainfall processes may result in greater than 2 inches in some locations, particularly those with multiple thunderstorms. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for those areas. Steep mid level lapse rates will follow closely behind the shortwave and elevated instability is expected to increase significantly late Saturday night. Some more vigorous thunderstorm development may occur behind the widespread shower activity and could pose a hail threat. These storms could also bring a heightened flood risk following the soaking rain from earlier.

The disturbance will exit early Sunday and upper ridging will quickly follow. A surface cold front will approach from the northwest Sunday afternoon. Thermal ridging will work up the front and 925 mb temps of +25 to +27C suggest highs in the lower 90s just ahead of the front. Dew points pooling in the lower 70s will send heat indices into the 95-100 degree range, leading to the first elevated heat concern of the season. The front should reach at least southwestern MN and northwest WI by Sunday evening. An EML with mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km should cap the atmosphere and prevent convective development, but if forcing along the front can overcome the cap, there will be a conditional risk of severe weather as early as Sunday afternoon. The front will stall Sunday evening and begin to lift back north late Sunday night. A strengthening LLJ impinging on the front will be the better forcing mechanism for convective development overnight. However, the EML will be shifting off to the northeast and elevated instability should thus be decreasing overnight which could limit severe potential. SPC Day 3 Marginal risk looks good. The nearly stationary front combined with pwats near or just above 1.75 inches and the 50 kt LLJ may bring training convection near and north of the front, leading to more flood concerns.

Where the front is positioned Monday and beyond is the main source of uncertainty for the rest of the forecast period.
Convection each period will also impact where it sets up to some degree. By Monday or Tuesday, a trough over the Rockies should lift it north and allow it to become a southwest-northeast oriented quasi-stationary boundary through at least midweek.
Intense heat and humidity will overspread the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley throughout this time, and depending on the surface frontal position and related convective activity, may occasionally make an appearance this far west. The ensemble spread for temperature remains quite large next week due to spatial differences with the front. One thing is near certain, there will be a tremendous amount of moisture over the Gulf, marked by pwats greater than 2.75 inches. The strength of the ridge across the east and a 50 kt LLJ across the Plains will funnel modified moisture up the front and into the Upper Midwest. Rounds of thunderstorms, potentially severe, and very heavy rainfall are possible throughout next week. Flooding will become an increasing concern, and it's appearing more and more likely some areas will exceed 5 inches by this time next week.

Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions continue this morning with no weather-related concerns. Northwest winds have decreased overnight and will remain light through tomorrow morning, eventually becoming east/southeast this evening. High level clouds will begin to invade from the west heading into tonight, ahead of the approaching system tomorrow. There are some lingering clouds around 5k-8k ft over northern Wisconsin which could impact EAU and RNH this morning.

KMSP...Winds will start to increase to 10-15kts heading into tomorrow morning, likely gusting up to 20-25kts. Rain chances also start to increase late tomorrow morning, but current trends have slowed the system down so we have kept mention out of the TAFs for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT PM...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind S at 05-10 kts.


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