NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KMPX 101144 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 544 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected for the next 7 days, with highs into the 40s returning Wednesday and continuing into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 149 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Welp, welcome back to another long stretch of little, if any sensible weather for the next 7+ days. We have extensive stratus over us this morning, but this will slowly erode from west to east during the day as the surface ridge currently over the Dakotas moves east, ending the cyclonic flow as it does so. After that, we'll be on a bit of a roller coaster for temperatures today through Tuesday, before we get stuck in the 10+ degrees above normal category again from Wednesday into next weekend. The ups and downs over the next couple of days are driven by the cool high pressure coming in today, followed by a dry cold front Monday evening that will allow highs on Monday to again make a run in the mid 30s to mid 40s, with highs Tuesday cooling back down to around 30 behind that front. Besides the cooler highs, we may see some single digit lows Tuesday and especially Wednesday morning. After that, a ridge and split flow moves in on Wednesday, setting up a prolonged period where our highs will frequently be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The warmest day still looks Thursday, when NBM 90th percentile shows 50 degree highs getting all the way up into the Twin Cities, which is very plausible given the breezy southwest winds we will have, which should aid in mixing. Looking even farther ahead to the week of the 18th, this mild airmass looks to still be around, with any passing fronts at worst, bringing a day with highs more 5-10 degrees above normal in their wake. Simply put, there are no signs of anything resembling cold air through pretty much the rest of December.

As for precipitation, those chances look pretty fleeting as well. As mentioned above, models are hinting at some weak fronts meandering across the area from the end of the week through next weekend. but they'll be doing so within a split flow regime, with any precip we're seeing in the models being tied to weak shortwaves that are left adrift in equally weak flow. Even if we do see precip, amounts would likely be similar to what we saw with the system that just went through here Saturday, so nothing of significance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

IFR at western MN sites and lower MVFR cigs elsewhere are being more stubborn than previously forecast and could linger into the evening. Areas in western MN will clear sooner, as early at 18Z, but the eastern Metro and WI sites likely won't see the sun today. Winds have subsided greatly and will be 5kts or less through the period.

KMSP...MVFR cigs lingering longer than anticipated, could last through sundown before scattering out. Winds have died down significantly and will veer to southwesterly by Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR early, then VFR. SW 5-10 kts.
MON PM...MVFR possible late. SW 5-10 kts bcmg W.
TUE...MVFR possible. NW 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,