Minneapolis, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minneapolis, MN

June 19, 2024 8:33 AM CDT (13:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 6:14 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minneapolis, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 191050 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 550 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant stretch with temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow. Chance (30-50%) for scattered showers tomorrow.

- Next chance for widespread rain arrives Friday into the weekend with an additional 1-3" possible for most.

- Upper-level pattern settles into a more summer-like regime, with less frequent activity heading into next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The cold front has made its way east, leaving behind cooler temperatures and slightly drier conditions for today. Mostly cloudy conditions will stick around, but you could start to see some peeks of the sun as the low-level clouds scatter out throughout the morning. We'll also likely be rain free for the first time since last Friday - enjoy it while it lasts!

The upper-level ridge pattern will persist over the eastern CONUS, which has continued to prevent any passing fronts from making it much farther than Milwaukee, WI. As such, we'll see a northwards surge of the boundary that sets up across Iowa and northern Illinois, bringing additional chances for rain tomorrow night through Saturday. When it is all said and done, an additional 1-3" of rain is likely for most locations, and 4"+ still possible where any training of storms sets up.

Tomorrow's setup presents some of that uncertainty for QPF, as the Euro looks to drop 0.5"+ across the area while the GFS and Canadian ensembles keep the area dry for the most part.
Showers/storms will look to develop along the nose of a 40-45kt LLJ, which varies in placement across models. The Euro orients it bit more east towards southern MN, owing to it's higher rainfall totals.

Tomorrow night into Friday there is better agreement that a broad line of showers and storms will develop along the warm front that gradually pushes north. The exact location of the boundary will be key because locally higher QPF is likely as the storms train over the same area from west to east. Latest guidance suggests this precip maximum will fall somewhere stretching from SE Neb up towards the Twin Cities metro, which coincides with the slight risk (level 2 of 4) on WPC's ERO for tomorrow and Friday. The severe potential for storms through Friday looks to be low, with lackluster mid-level lapse rates and the greatest instability further south into Iowa.

The upper-level pattern will attempt to settle into a more typical summer regime as a progressive trough is able to finally usher out the eastern ridge. This will likely bring one final push of rain Saturday morning into the afternoon along a west-east frontal passage. Severe potential looks limited again, but there could certainly be some thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall rates. Rivers and streams will likely start to crest late this weekend, with spots along the Minnesota peaking later into next week.

Early next week should dry out for a bit, with temperatures warming back up into the mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A few hours of MVFR cigs this morning, before only mid-high level clouds stick around for much of the day. Wind speeds will continue to decrease throughout the period, gradually shifting from NW this morning towards N in the afternoon, and ultimately NE overnight. Rain chances will start to increase heading into tomorrow morning in tandem with lowering cigs.

KMSP...Any gusts should remain minimal this morning. No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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