Minneapolis, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minneapolis, MN

June 19, 2024 1:50 AM CDT (06:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 6:14 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minneapolis, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 190536 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon and evening. Primary hazards are damaging winds and a chance for a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible this afternoon into tonight.

- Additional rainfall of 0.50" to 1.00" through Wednesday morning.

- Pleasant stretch with temperatures in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

- Next chance for widespread rain arrives Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today and Tonight... A busy stretch of weather is on tap for this afternoon and evening. Current observations highlight the tropical-like airmass in place. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. Southerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph will turn northwesterly and decrease overnight behind the frontal passage.

Our attention turns to this afternoon's severe weather set up. A potent sfc low over the eastern Dakotas will lift northeast into northern Minnesota this afternoon. A trailing cold front moves into western Minnesota by early afternoon and will be the focus point for convective initiation. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in continued moisture advection through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front, we've seen moderate instability 2500-3500 J/kg build into central and southern Minnesota. Effective shear remains around 30 knots with nearly unidirectional shear aloft, limited by weak flow aloft. Initial storm mode will be multicell with a supercell or two possible but storms will quickly congeal into a linear storm mode given the unidirectional shear profile aloft. Our primary concern will be the potential of damaging wind gusts convection moves through central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. KMPX VAD profile highlights impressive low level SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 and along with decent speed shear in the lower levels. Given the enhanced low level wind shear, a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon.
This matches up with the SPC SWO update added a 5% TOR area over our MN counties. Our 18z sounding highlights impressive moisture in the lower levels with PWAT of 1.91". The wind profile has some veering in the mid levels. Low level wind profile is impressive with nice curvature in the hodograph. Most importantly, the capping inversion has effectively eroded in the 18z ob. Initiation should when better upper level support arrives mid-afternoon, roughly 2-4PM, with a mixed convective mode before turning more linear. Storms impact the Twin Cities metro between 5 and 8pm. Heading into the evening hours, the front becomes more progressive and will shift the showers and storms into western Wisconsin with an overall diminishing trend by mid to late evening.

Wednesday and Thursday... A brief break in the active weather pattern on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be dry & pleasant with highs in the low to mid-70s, partly sunny skies, and light winds. Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday ahead of our next system.

Friday through early next week...Southwest flow aloft will return and so will the moisture. This will support additional rain chances Friday and Saturday, with an additional 1-2" of rain likely for most locations, and 3"+ still possible where the strongest storms move through. Guidance hints at a slow moving system as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Friday. Placement of the surface boundaries will be important due to the potential for heavy rain. Any additional rain will contribute to additional rises in area rivers and streams for exacerbate flooding concerns into next weekend and early next week.
Temperatures appear to warm back up during this period with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The cold front has pushed its way well into Wisconsin, with the strongest storms out of the area now. Scattered light showers will linger for MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for the next 1-2 hours, but should not have much of an aviation impact. Cigs are primarily MVFR early this morning, with the potential for a few sites to have some periods of IFR. Areawide improvement to VFR is likely this afternoon, and should last through early tomorrow morning. Westerly winds have been steadily decreasing, and will stay light tomorrow while shifting more NW/N heading into tonight. Things should stay dry until later tomorrow morning when our next front moves in from the south.

KMSP...Light showers in the area should not amount to much over the next couple of hours. Biggest thing throughout this period will be a gradual improvement to cigs during the late morning / early afternoon, and relatively light winds (5-10 kts) becoming more NW during the morning, N through the afternoon, and eventually NE overnight. Another round of rain is likely heading into Thursday morning, but confidence is low on exact timing so have kept mention out of the TAF for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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