Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Louis Park, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...Any lingering precipitation across western Wisconsin had concluded as of midday. Cloud cover associated with the departing weather system continues to clear from west to east, with sunny skies over west/central Minnesota captured on GOES-East visible satellite. The western extent of the cloud deck will serve as the dividing line for this afternoon's high temperature gradient.
Highs are on track to reach the mid 60s across western Minnesota, though will likely struggle to break out of the low 50s across portions of western Wisconsin. Surface ridge will keep things clear and quiet through early evening, however the advance of a compact surface low over the Dakotas will push a warm front across the region tonight. Supported by modest mid-level flow, HRRR's CAM paintball ensemble captures an arc of scattered showers (and perhaps a few thunderstorms) developing across western Minnesota after sunset. This activity will move from west to east overnight, likely persisting into the early morning commute across western Wisconsin. Given that the low-level jet axis is forecast to be positioned across central Iowa, there are some questions about how widespread this nocturnal convection will be locally. Nonetheless, a few hundredths to a tenth of two of precipitation will be possible (highest amounts will be localized).

TUESDAY...A swift mid-level jetstreak will push the nocturnal convection eastward through early tomorrow morning. Skies will again clear from west to east, allowing for sunshine during the afternoon.
This should set the stage for relatively efficient mixing, which may mean the NBM's wind forecast is currently underdone. For reference, the 15z RAP displayed widespread gusts upwards of 25 knots (mixing to ~5k feet) tomorrow afternoon. This process should yield a mild afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across much of the region (cooler in western WI). However, we'll need to keep an eye on the degree of mixing across western MN (where little to no rain fell Sunday night) as RH's are forecast to drop to between 25- 35%. For now, our wind forecast suggests that fire weather concerns are only "elevated" tomorrow afternoon. However, should conditions mix in the manner the RAP suggests, fire weather concerns may increase across south/west MN.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK...As has been the trend with previous forecasts, Wednesday continues to look like a nice day with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, the 12z guidance has trended in a slightly wetter direction compared to previous forecasts. The reason for this trend is tied warm advection beneath large scale zonal flow (from southwest to northeast) across the central CONUS.
It still appears that much of Wednesday will be dry for I-94 and north, however warm advection driven showers/storms could impact southern MN Wednesday afternoon/evening. NBM has introduced 30-40% PoPs across this portion of the forecast area to reflect these chances. The advance of a shortwave trough within the zonal flow will send a surface low through the Midwest Thursday into Friday.
Minnesota/Wisconsin will be on the northern side of the system, so not expecting much of a severe weather threat, though ensembles hint that this could be another round of soaking rainfall across the region. As stated by the overnight shift, each deterministic and ensemble counterpart feature variance in rainfall expectations from Wednesday PM - early Friday, though baseline expectations between 0.25-0.5" seem reasonable. Higher amounts (closer to an inch)
certainly appear possible, but confidence is too low to identify favored locations at this time.

EXTENDED PERIOD...Friday is trending drier and slightly cooler following the departure of Thursday's rainfall. Breezy northerly winds will keep highs in the upper 50s/near 60. Saturday looks dry and slightly warmer, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Perhaps it's not much of a surprise that our unsettled pattern will send another round of wet weather into the Upper Midwest to close the weekend.
This time the culprit will be the advance of a longwave trough set to come ashore over the weekend. Global guidance is already in fairly good agreement with the development of widespread precipitation across the region ahead of the advancing trough, though there are timing difference to resolve. Nearly all Grand Ensemble members show precipitation between Sunday PM-Tuesday AM, so confidence in measurable precipitation during this timeframe is already high (NBM already has PoPs > 60%)
On another note
while it is too soon to discuss specifics with regards to severe weather potential next week, both the CSU/NSSL ML highlight lower end severe probs creeping into the Upper Midwest in advance of the aforementioned trough.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Scattered showers stretching from central to southern MN will continue moving east during tonight. Weather stations that have seen rain so far have remained VFR, thus minimal impacts are expected from precipitation. In the wake of the showers, overcast cloud bases will drop to MVFR for most terminals (MKT with the most uncertainty) for at least a few hour period.
Skies should clear from west to east immediately following the MVFR period, starting with MN terminals during Tuesday morning and WI terminals by Tuesday afternoon. VFR is expected into Tuesday night. Southeasterly winds tonight will turn westerly as skies clear during Tuesday. Sustained values will be between 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots possible in western MN, most likely during Tuesday afternoon. Winds slow to near 5 knots in the evening and begin to turn southerly.

KMSP...Light showers will affect the terminal until about 12Z, though no impacts are expected. Cigs will fall to near 1800 feet from 12-16Z before skies clear by early Tuesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR overnight. Wind variable around 5 kts.
THU...-SHRA/MVFR likely, mainly P.M. Wind NE 10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.