Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN
July 27, 2024 6:47 AM CDT (11:47 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 10:56 PM Moonset 12:35 PM |
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 270821 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat and humidity continues today, with area wide heat indices in the 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Some strong to severe storms are possible with locally heavy rain, but there is uncertainty in where these will set up.
- Seasonable temperatures are on tap for the final days of July into August, but muggy dew points will persist. Next chance for precip arrives mid week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Another round of early morning low stratus is spreading across central and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with clear skies for the western half of the CWA Further northwest, thunderstorms are ongoing across the Dakotas and far northern Minnesota along a stalled front. This activity will remain well to our north during the day today, with hot, humid, and breezy conditions expected to expand further east into western Wisconsin. Overall cloud cover and smoke aloft should be less prevalent today than yesterday, but we still look to fall short of heat advisory criteria. The 25-30 MPH southerly wind gusts should make things feel a bit more tolerable as well, but WBGT values may approach the mid 80s (mod/high).
As we head into the overnight hours, our first chances of precip begin to creep in as the stalled front in the Dakotas begins to make some eastward progress. With the influence of the nocturnal LLJ, western Minnesota may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms by early Sunday morning, but the bulk of the activity will arrive sometime Sunday afternoon/evening.
Unfortunately, confidence has lowered somewhat in regards to the timing/placement of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain as there seems to have been a noticeable shift south over the last 12-24 hours. In any case, looking at the severe weather potential, we will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with, but our shear will be minimal. Coverage of the showers/thunderstorms will likely start out more scattered across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota before growing upscale overnight through early Monday as it works into western Wisconsin.
Once the front clears the CWA sometime Monday afternoon, we’ll see seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures continue as we head into the beginning of August with dew points remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. Our next chance for precip will arrive sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday as a shortwave approaches from the west. There is some disagreement in the evolution of the wave beyond Thursday, with the Euro wanting to hang on to an upper low over the western Great Lakes while the GFS is more progressive with ridging building in to end the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Latest model trends have increased confidence of broken IFR cigs just prior to sunrise and into mid-morning at STC, RNH, and EAU.
These clouds should lift as heating occurs throughout Saturday.
Though, there is a chance cigs behave similarly (delayed improvement to VFR) to what we saw Friday. Eventually, VFR will prevail area-wide by Saturday afternoon with a scattered to broken low-VFR stratocumulus deck over WI. Steady southerly winds tonight will increase Saturday morning with highest values occurring over MN Saturday afternoon. Sustained values will between 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots.
KMSP...Strongest southerly winds will occur Saturday afternoon with sustained values near 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind S 15G25 kts.
MON...Chc morning MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SW/W 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat and humidity continues today, with area wide heat indices in the 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Some strong to severe storms are possible with locally heavy rain, but there is uncertainty in where these will set up.
- Seasonable temperatures are on tap for the final days of July into August, but muggy dew points will persist. Next chance for precip arrives mid week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Another round of early morning low stratus is spreading across central and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with clear skies for the western half of the CWA Further northwest, thunderstorms are ongoing across the Dakotas and far northern Minnesota along a stalled front. This activity will remain well to our north during the day today, with hot, humid, and breezy conditions expected to expand further east into western Wisconsin. Overall cloud cover and smoke aloft should be less prevalent today than yesterday, but we still look to fall short of heat advisory criteria. The 25-30 MPH southerly wind gusts should make things feel a bit more tolerable as well, but WBGT values may approach the mid 80s (mod/high).
As we head into the overnight hours, our first chances of precip begin to creep in as the stalled front in the Dakotas begins to make some eastward progress. With the influence of the nocturnal LLJ, western Minnesota may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms by early Sunday morning, but the bulk of the activity will arrive sometime Sunday afternoon/evening.
Unfortunately, confidence has lowered somewhat in regards to the timing/placement of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain as there seems to have been a noticeable shift south over the last 12-24 hours. In any case, looking at the severe weather potential, we will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with, but our shear will be minimal. Coverage of the showers/thunderstorms will likely start out more scattered across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota before growing upscale overnight through early Monday as it works into western Wisconsin.
Once the front clears the CWA sometime Monday afternoon, we’ll see seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures continue as we head into the beginning of August with dew points remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. Our next chance for precip will arrive sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday as a shortwave approaches from the west. There is some disagreement in the evolution of the wave beyond Thursday, with the Euro wanting to hang on to an upper low over the western Great Lakes while the GFS is more progressive with ridging building in to end the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Latest model trends have increased confidence of broken IFR cigs just prior to sunrise and into mid-morning at STC, RNH, and EAU.
These clouds should lift as heating occurs throughout Saturday.
Though, there is a chance cigs behave similarly (delayed improvement to VFR) to what we saw Friday. Eventually, VFR will prevail area-wide by Saturday afternoon with a scattered to broken low-VFR stratocumulus deck over WI. Steady southerly winds tonight will increase Saturday morning with highest values occurring over MN Saturday afternoon. Sustained values will between 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots.
KMSP...Strongest southerly winds will occur Saturday afternoon with sustained values near 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind S 15G25 kts.
MON...Chc morning MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SW/W 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT HIDE  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMSP MINNEAPOLISST PAUL INTL/WOLDCHAMBERLAIN,MN | 6 sm | 54 min | SE 06 | 7 sm | A Few Clouds | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.97 | |
KSTP ST PAUL DOWNTOWN HOLMAN FLD,MN | 6 sm | 54 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.97 | |
KSGS SOUTH ST PAUL MUNIRICHARD E FLEMING FLD,MN | 10 sm | 32 min | SSE 04 | 7 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.97 | |
KMIC CRYSTAL,MN | 12 sm | 54 min | SSE 06 | 8 sm | Clear | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.95 | |
KANE ANOKA COUNTYBLAINE (JANES FIELD),MN | 13 sm | 32 min | S 04 | 7 sm | Clear | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 29.97 | |
KFCM FLYING CLOUD,MN | 18 sm | 54 min | S 04 | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.96 |
KLVN AIRLAKE,MN | 23 sm | 32 min | S 05 | 5 sm | Partly Cloudy | Mist | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 29.98 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSP
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSP
Wind History graph: MSP
(wind in knots)Minneapolis, MN,
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