Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN
February 17, 2025 2:10 PM CST (20:10 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:07 AM Sunset 5:45 PM Moonrise 11:19 PM Moonset 9:02 AM |

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Area Discussion for Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 171712 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1112 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerous wind chills as low as 45 below zero this morning and tomorrow morning, with the coldest chills in west-central Minnesota. Air temperatures will not reach above zero until Tuesday afternoon.
- Cold temperatures continue Wednesday with morning wind chills as low as 35 below zero, with a gradual warming trend into the weekend with mid 30s to low 40s possible by Sunday.
- No snow or active weather expected through the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 1053 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Late morning surface observations reveal wind chill values in the -30 to -40 range across western Minnesota. While some improvements are expected this afternoon, wind chills out west will remain near Cold Weather Advisory criteria for the majority of the upcoming period, prior to the start of the next Extreme Cold Warning at 9 PM. For this reason, we have collaborated with WFO FSD/DMX to issue a Cold Weather Advisory across western Minnesota to "bridge the gap" between the most severe cold.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Clear skies are present across the region with the exception of southeastern Minnesota this morning, with IR satellite showing significant surface cold creeping southwards as air temperatures have cooled into the teens below zero with wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero as of 2am. The coldest wind chills this morning in west-central Minnesota could drop down to the mid 40s below zero, with slow improvement once we reach daylight. Air temperatures will struggle to get above zero today as cold air continues to surge southwards at ground level as a broad occluded upper level trough is positioned north of the region with wind chills at their warmest around 20 below zero. A bit of sunshine during the day could help it feel a bit warmer, otherwise we are in for a cold 48-60 hour stretch as we do not look to get above zero for air temperatures until Wednesday aside from a couple of hours in western WIsconsin on Tuesday afternoon. Strong arctic high pressure will continue to creep southwards on the western side of the upper level trough with deterministic ECMWF showing a 1050mb high over southern Saskatchewan into the northwestern Dakotas by Tuesday night. This broad arctic high and persistent northerly winds are the primary source of the cold air, alongside clear skies overnight allowing for efficient cooling. This morning and Tuesday morning will be the coldest, with a small improvement for Wednesday morning before temepratures start rising quicker as we move closer to the weekend.
As the arctic high weakens and moves southwards into the plains, the cold air will loosen its grip and warmer temperatures will arrive as southerly surface winds by the weekend should bring in a more mild air mass, with 850mb temps increasing quite a bit by the weekend.
Active weather remains absent with a lack of any meaningful forcing mechanisms as the broad suite of ensemble guidance points towards chances for upper 30s to low 40s beginning Sunday and lingering into next week. By the time we reach the longer ranges beyond 10 days, we will be into March with our average temperatures about 4-5 degrees higher than mid February. While we cannot say for certain this is our last arctic air outbreak of the year, it becomes more and more likely the farther we get into March as the sun becomes increasingly strong in terms of angle and duration after the Spring equinox on March 20th.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1102 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Mostly clear skies could give way to scattered MVFR level cigs this afternoon. A pocket of overcast cigs around 1000-1700 ft have been attempting to slide south from NW MN this morning, but are struggling to make too much progress. Northwest winds prevail through the period.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1112 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerous wind chills as low as 45 below zero this morning and tomorrow morning, with the coldest chills in west-central Minnesota. Air temperatures will not reach above zero until Tuesday afternoon.
- Cold temperatures continue Wednesday with morning wind chills as low as 35 below zero, with a gradual warming trend into the weekend with mid 30s to low 40s possible by Sunday.
- No snow or active weather expected through the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 1053 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Late morning surface observations reveal wind chill values in the -30 to -40 range across western Minnesota. While some improvements are expected this afternoon, wind chills out west will remain near Cold Weather Advisory criteria for the majority of the upcoming period, prior to the start of the next Extreme Cold Warning at 9 PM. For this reason, we have collaborated with WFO FSD/DMX to issue a Cold Weather Advisory across western Minnesota to "bridge the gap" between the most severe cold.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Clear skies are present across the region with the exception of southeastern Minnesota this morning, with IR satellite showing significant surface cold creeping southwards as air temperatures have cooled into the teens below zero with wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero as of 2am. The coldest wind chills this morning in west-central Minnesota could drop down to the mid 40s below zero, with slow improvement once we reach daylight. Air temperatures will struggle to get above zero today as cold air continues to surge southwards at ground level as a broad occluded upper level trough is positioned north of the region with wind chills at their warmest around 20 below zero. A bit of sunshine during the day could help it feel a bit warmer, otherwise we are in for a cold 48-60 hour stretch as we do not look to get above zero for air temperatures until Wednesday aside from a couple of hours in western WIsconsin on Tuesday afternoon. Strong arctic high pressure will continue to creep southwards on the western side of the upper level trough with deterministic ECMWF showing a 1050mb high over southern Saskatchewan into the northwestern Dakotas by Tuesday night. This broad arctic high and persistent northerly winds are the primary source of the cold air, alongside clear skies overnight allowing for efficient cooling. This morning and Tuesday morning will be the coldest, with a small improvement for Wednesday morning before temepratures start rising quicker as we move closer to the weekend.
As the arctic high weakens and moves southwards into the plains, the cold air will loosen its grip and warmer temperatures will arrive as southerly surface winds by the weekend should bring in a more mild air mass, with 850mb temps increasing quite a bit by the weekend.
Active weather remains absent with a lack of any meaningful forcing mechanisms as the broad suite of ensemble guidance points towards chances for upper 30s to low 40s beginning Sunday and lingering into next week. By the time we reach the longer ranges beyond 10 days, we will be into March with our average temperatures about 4-5 degrees higher than mid February. While we cannot say for certain this is our last arctic air outbreak of the year, it becomes more and more likely the farther we get into March as the sun becomes increasingly strong in terms of angle and duration after the Spring equinox on March 20th.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1102 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Mostly clear skies could give way to scattered MVFR level cigs this afternoon. A pocket of overcast cigs around 1000-1700 ft have been attempting to slide south from NW MN this morning, but are struggling to make too much progress. Northwest winds prevail through the period.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMSP MINNEAPOLISST PAUL INTL/WOLDCHAMBERLAIN,MN | 6 sm | 17 min | NW 11 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | -6°F | -18°F | 53% | 30.43 | |
KSTP ST PAUL DOWNTOWN HOLMAN FLD,MN | 6 sm | 17 min | NW 13 | 10 sm | Clear | -6°F | -17°F | 59% | 30.45 | |
KSGS SOUTH ST PAUL MUNIRICHARD E FLEMING FLD,MN | 10 sm | 15 min | NW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | -4°F | -18°F | 49% | 30.42 | |
KMIC CRYSTAL,MN | 12 sm | 17 min | W 10 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | -6°F | -18°F | 53% | 30.43 | |
KANE ANOKA COUNTYBLAINE (JANES FIELD),MN | 13 sm | 20 min | WNW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | -2°F | -17°F | 49% | 30.42 | |
KFCM FLYING CLOUD,MN | 18 sm | 17 min | NW 12 | 10 sm | Clear | -6°F | -18°F | 53% | 30.42 | |
KLVN AIRLAKE,MN | 23 sm | 15 min | WNW 13G16 | 10 sm | Clear | -6°F | -18°F | 53% | 30.41 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSP
Wind History Graph: MSP
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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