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FXUS63 KMPX 102346 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 546 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather this week with a stretch of well-above normal temperatures returning Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A quiet week of weather is ahead with temperatures returning to well-above normal values late this week as strong ridging builds over the central CONUS.
Weak high pressure remains over the region into tomorrow afternoon, and light winds mean that the widespread stratus will stick around overnight & potentially through Most of Monday as well. A cold front passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday which will help to clear the clouds out, but the surface low well to our north means that little forcing for precipitation is expected, outside of a few flurries into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side of normal Tuesday, but then warm through the rest of the week as strong ridging builds again over the central CONUS. Daytime highs in the 40s are expected area-wide Thursday through the weekend, with a run at 50 degrees possible Thursday when the ridge will be at its peak. Most guidance depicts a well-defined upper level low developing somewhere over the central to southern plains by next weekend, with the vast majority of solutions keeping it on a track well south of the Upper Midwest. Thus, we’re likely looking at a dry forecast over the next 7 days, with the main weather feature of interest being whether any record highs are within reach on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The main focus continues to be the low-level stratus around 1500- 2000 ft. Most terminals will likely stay affected by this layer overnight into tomorrow morning, with the one exception being RWF as it is located right along the edge of the cloud deck. Things could begin to scatter out as early as 10z, but with weak subsidence and persistent moisture, they are likely to stick around until late morning. Winds will be light from the NW to start, and eventually turning S overnight before increasing and shifting back more westerly.

KMSP... MVFR ceilings will stick around through tonight, and should begin to clear out around daybreak tomorrow as southerly flow increases. Winds remain light overnight and increase to 8-12 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON PM...VFR. SW 5-10 kts bcmg W 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR possible early, then VFR. NW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. SW 5-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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