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FXUS63 KMPX 100118 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 718 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and gusty winds continue into this evening.

- Quiet and warm weather expected through next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 718 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Few changes needed to ongoing forecast as back edge of light snow is currently approaching western portions of the metro area. Accumulations have generally been between a trace and a half inch so far, and expect similar for areas east of the metro where snow will persist a bit longer. Could see up to an inch in parts of western Wisconsin where the snow will have longer to accumulate. Temperatures dropping into the upper 20s will cause slick spots to appear especially on any untreated surfaces.
Winds continue to decrease, and have dropped well below advisory criteria across the west where the wind advisory was allowed to expire.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Temperatures ended up a few degrees warmer today than previously forecasted, meaning much of our precipitation today has fallen as drizzle or a light rain/snow mix, with the only light accumulations so far across far-western Minnesota. Temperatures have begun to drop this afternoon as the cold front moves into eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, so a transition over to entirely light snow is still expected late this afternoon and early this evening. Any accumulation on roads and surfaces will likely have to wait until sunset, with amounts expected to remain under one inch. The snow will taper off this evening from west to east, with dry conditions expected after midnight.
Gusty northwest winds will continue into early evening, with speeds up to 50 mph across western Minnesota where the Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM. Winds gust the rest of this evening will generally be between 30-40 mph, with further lessening of the wind speeds expected after midnight.

Despite the ending snow, cloud cover is expected to stick around overnight which will keep temperatures on the warmer end of guidance in the upper teens to low 20s. Models suggest some clearing is possible by early afternoon Sunday, but this may be overly optimistic given light winds and the weakest sun angle of the year. temperatures will be cool, but seasonal, with afternoon highs generally around 30 degrees.

Outside of a brief shot of colder air on Tuesday, temperatures next week will return to well-above normal values as broad ridging aloft again develops over much of the CONUS. A split- flow pattern with the jet stream also develops, which means there is little in the way of notable systems and thus little or no chances for precipitation through the week. Ensembles hint at some sort of shortwave/upper level low developing over the central CONUS next weekend, but it looks like another week of quiet weather until then.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Back edge of light snow currently between STC and MSP, and should clear MSP in the next 2-3 hours. Any additional accumulation will be a few tenths of an inch, with vsby around 3-5 SM until the snow clears through. MVFR cigs likely to hang on through the night into much of Sunday before scattering out in the afternoon. Could even see some dips into IFR cigs overnight especially western/central MN. Winds will gradually decrease this evening with gusts subsiding near/shortly after midnight.

KMSP...Light snow coming to an end around 02Z to 03Z, with continued MVFR cigs overnight. Gusts have decreased to about 25kts and will continue to slowly decrease to below 20kts after midnight. MVFR cigs through much of Sunday, gradually scattering out in the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Monday...VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
Monday night...MVFR possible late. Southwest wind 5 to 15 kt becoming west.
Tuesday...MVFR possible. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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