Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Rainfall amounts so far have ranged from 0.1-0.25" across south- central and southern MN to near 0.75-1.2" in west-central WI.
Looping radar imagery shows the forecast deformation band has been organizing over southeastern MN into extreme western WI over the last few hours. This feature should pivot north-northeast into western/northwestern WI in conjunction with the surface low that is currently located near KPDC. Thus, rain will continue over southeastern MN and our WI counties through tonight before ending from south to north during Monday morning. Another 0.25-0.75" is expected with the deformation band before it exits northeast. Some snow should even mix in our our northern WI counties during Monday morning. But this should mostly be cosmetic and any accumulations that do occur will be short-lived. Skies will rapidly clear from west to east during today, such that most of the region will be cloud free this evening. Due to the clouds, a gradient in high temperatures will exist today with mid to upper 60s expected in western MN to low to mid 50s in western WI. The gradient in temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Monday night will feature lows in the mid 40s to low to mid 30s while Tuesday's highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s in western MN to mid 50s in WI.
CAMs and larger-scale models do show a band of scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms moving west to east ahead of a warm front Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts shouldn't be too heavy with this activity but a few tenths of an inch is possible, especially in southern MN where thunderstorms are more likely due to non-zero MUCAPE.

Conditions dry out Tuesday night through most of Wednesday as zonal upper-level flow moves into the Upper Midwest. Wednesday actually looks pretty nice with partly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the 60s. Heading through Wednesday night, guidance shows low-level WAA advection occurring over the Midwest. This acts to build subtle ridging over the Great Lakes region into Thursday. Meanwhile, a trough will begin to make its way onto the west coast, causing southwesterly upper-level flow (from the High Plains to Northern Plains) between the trough and ridge. Impulses within this flow are then forecast to pass over a zonal low-level thermal gradient situated over MN/WI, sparking off chances for precipitation through Thursday. NBM seems pretty confident in us seeing area-wide rain in a rather weakly forced regime. This is especially true Thursday afternoon/evening over southern MN and west-central WI where PoPs maximize at 60-80%. These PoPs look to be driven by the EPS, GEPS, ECMWF, and GEM, which keeps the heavier activity south of the thermal gradient. Meanwhile, the GFS and GEFS favor greater precip farther north. QPF amounts vary quite a bit between models as a result but 0.25-0.5" looks like a good bet for southern MN/western WI Thursday through Thursday night with amounts decreasing to the north. Localized higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms and training cells occur.

Rain will move east of the region by early Friday as a shortwave passes through the region. Amplifying upper-level ridging will follow this wave, passing through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during next weekend. This should allow for dry weather for at least the first half of the weekend. However, PoPs return again Sunday into Monday as models show an amplified trough (that had arrived over the western CONUS Saturday) make its way east into the central CONUS. However, considerable differences exist between individual models such that exact timing of precipitation and amounts are unable to be determined at this time. It does appear that our active pattern will continue for at least the next several days, as evidenced by the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks.
But, we'll take what rain we can get, given how drought has unfolded during the summer months the last few years.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Rain continues at MSP, RNH, and EAU this morning. This rain will move out this morning. The influence of the rain has MVFR and some IFR CIGS this morning. As the whole system moves out today a rise back into VFR and clear skies will move in behind it.
Winds will shift from the north/northwest to the south/southeast later today. Rain chances return tonight into tomorrow morning.
Most likely MVFR as this rain moves through.

KMSP...Light rain with no visibility impact this morning, but continued low MVFR CIGS. This rain will come to an end this morning and with its end a return to higher MVFR and then VFR by the afternoon. Rain chances return tonight into tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE PM...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR overnight. Wind W 5-10 kts.
THU...Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.