Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 10:43 PM   Moonset 6:11 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 261942 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through the overnight hours.

- Saturday will be drier, but rain will return for the second half of the weekend.

- Our active pattern will remain in place as we head into May with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our first round of rain from this morning is exiting eastern Minnesota and heading into northwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Further south and west, a new line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across southwestern Minnesota. Some hail has been reported with these storms across northwest Iowa, but as they continue into Minnesota, they will outrun the instability to our south. CAMs show this second line of showers and storms filling in from far northeastern South Dakota down through central Iowa as they move northeastward across the MPX area and lose some of their punch.
There is a threat for some hail with any of the stronger storms, particularly across southern Minnesota, but these storms are not expected to be severe. This wave will move into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by late this afternoon with yet another on its heels. If we were to see any severe hail, it would be with this third line of storms as the warm front over Iowa continues to lift northward. However, confidence is low that this warm front will make it into Minnesota by this evening, limiting the chances for severe weather. In any case, rain is still expected area-wide through tonight with an additional quarter to half inch (with locally higher amounts) through Saturday morning.

Rain will end by mid morning across much of the area as the surface low slides overhead. The aforementioned associated warm front will lead to quite a temperature spread from western Minnesota in the mid to upper 50s for highs to near 70 in western Wisconsin. Cloud cover will stick around but winds will let up a bit before we find ourselves on the backside of this system with another surface low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on Sunday morning. This will be another widespread 0.75"-1.5" rain event through much of the day. Thunderstorm wise, we will again find ourselves on the wrong side of the warm front with any severe chances remaining to our south and east.

As we head into the final days of April, we'll warm up and dry out a bit. Monday will still be on the cooler side with breezy west winds and mostly cloudy skies as the low continues on into northern Minnesota before southerly flow ramps up overnight and into Tuesday, sending highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s. More showers are possible Tuesday ahead of a cold front as a quick moving shortwave moves along the International Border. Shower chances linger through the middle of the week with continued breezy winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Main rain shield has shifted north of MSP and into western WI, after battling with dry air to have precip realized at the surface. This also is pretty much the last vestige of VFR ceilings as MVFR-IFR ceilings are gradually making their way ENE from western-southern MN. Additional -SHRA are also showing up on KMPX radar and these will steadily increase in coverage/intensity through the rest of the afternoon-evening.
Ceilings for all sites will drop to IFR later this afternoon and stay there through midday tomorrow. Precip will also return for all sites this afternoon-evening. Best chances for TSRA will be in far southern MN, potentially up to KEAU. Have kept TSRA mention out of MSP as instability looks sufficiently weak to prevent TSRA up that far north, but it cannot be ruled out altogether so will need to watch radar trends and adjust as needed. Fairly steady rainfall will occur late this evening through the early morning hours, then rainfall will end from south-to-north during the mid-to-late morning hours tomorrow.
Breezy SE winds will continue through the daylight hours today, topping out around 20G30kts, then diminish overnight and turn more W and NW after sunrise Saturday morning.

KMSP...VFR to start but MVFR ceilings will quickly set in by around 20z and remain there through the rest of this afternoon- evening. A few showers may move across the MSP area mid- afternoon but chances appreciably increase late this afternoon through this evening for more sustained rainfall. TS chances are quite low, although non-zero, so have omitted its mention there at this point but will monitor and amend as needed. Rain looks to end overnight, prior to daybreak, with low clouds lingering through most of the day Saturday. Chance for rain increase Saturday evening through Sunday. Breezy winds (around 20G30kts, occasionally higher) continue through this evening then slowly diminish overnight into Saturday, while also veering to S then W.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind ENE 15-20G25-30 kts.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15G20-25 kts becoming W.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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