FXUS65 KBYZ 270757 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 157 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

DISCUSSION

Today through Sunday night...

Southwest flow aloft today will support slightly warmer temperatures (around 90) compared to the mid 80s on Friday. There is also a disturbance with modest jet support that pushes in from the southwest mid day, producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms once again for the afternoon/evening hours. Best chances for precipitation will be over the western mountains and foothills again, where over half an inch of rain has fallen in spots over the past 72 hours. HRRR and NCAR Cam Viewer showing minimal threat for severe wind gusts with storms today, but gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible near just about any storms today.
Locally for the past two days weak convection has produced gusts over 60 mph in Livingston (gap wind effect) and this could be day three this afternoon.

A more organized disturbance swings into the area from the west on Sunday. This will bring more organized convection to the area and a higher potential for strong to severe wind gusts with showers and thunderstorms. Lower heights with the upper wave combined with more/earlier cloud cover with convection should hold temperatures in the western foothills in the lower 80s, with mid to upper 80s central and east. While precipitation chances are better overall Sunday, forecast precipitation amounts remain modest at under a tenth of an inch for most areas.

Smoke concentrations will continue to increase over the next 48 hours and may be unhealthy at times. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect through Sunday morning for Sheridan county and additional areas may need Air Quality highlites over the weekend into early next week. Chambers

Monday through Friday...

With brief ridging in place for Monday, breezy, dry and warm conditions will be in place. Winds of 25-30 mph in the low-mid levels are likely to mix down to the surface. This will be most prevalent for areas Billings north and west where the highest winds aloft will be. This will be the case again Tuesday ahead of the next approaching shortwave trough. Ensembles are in agreement that this next system will move through Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. With no decent influx of moisture, chances for at least a tenth of an inch of precip remains low at 15-25% for the region. After Wednesday, heights begin to build back in, allowing for temperatures to climb into the weekend. High temperatures for Monday-Wednesday will be in the 80s/90s, increasing to the 90s/low 100s for the remainder of the period. TS
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