Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bozeman, MT

DISCUSSION

Through Monday...

Upper ridging to prevail through midweek resulting in warm temps, and aside from a few mountain showers, mainly dry conditions.
Look for highs in the 60s to lower 70s today (10-20F above normal) and peaking Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s (20-30F above normal) thanks to a prefrontal environment with deep mixing and downslope winds. Winds will begin to pick up in the foothills of south central MT tonight into Wednesday as lees side surface troughing and a weak inversion. Progged pressure gradients across the foothills is modest (6-8 mb from IDA-LWT), so gusts overnight should only be in the 35-45 mph range. However, with deep mixing expected Wednesday we should see gusts over 50 mph across the foothills. There is a 70-90% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph from Livingston to Big Timber and along the US-191 corridor to Judith Gap. Gusty winds will spread east to other areas Wednesday afternoon with gusts 25-40 mph common.

The very warm, dry, and windy conditions on Wednesday will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions for south-central MT and northern WY. Fire weather watches are in effect from 12 PM to 9 PM Wednesday for areas mainly west and south of Rosebud County.
Please refrain from any activities that may spark grass fires!

Energy moving across the northern Rockies will flatten the upper ridge Wednesday night and push a cold front through our region in the evening. This will bring brisk northerly winds and isolated to scattered showers to the area. Latest models want to hang up some showers across the mountains and foothills Thursday as well as nearby areas across the plains. However, the overall precipitation over the plains from this system does not look very promising. The chance of even 0.05 of precip ranges from 25% east to 40% west. In the mountains, light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches is currently forecast above 6000 ft. The probability for at least 0.1" of snowfall at the lower elevations (mainly Wed night) ranges from 15% east to 50% west of Billings near the foothills. Roads should remain wet or at the most slushy in the foothills Thursday morning. Look for cooler temps Thursday in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Friday and into the weekend, ensembles remain in agreement that upper ridging will return, bringing warm and dry weather.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s on Friday, and 60s/70s for the weekend and mid 70s for Monday. BT

AVIATION

06Z TAF Discussion...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Winds will be light overnight through Tuesday morning.
However, KBLX VWP is showing a layer of southeast winds 30-40kts 1-6kft AGL at 05z. Added mention of LLWS to the KBIL TAF to account for this through mid morning. Westerly winds will increase over the western foothills (KLVM) tomorrow afternoon with gusts over 30kts developing before sunset there. Elsewhere thermal wind gusts and modest mixing will bring gusts in the 20kt vicinity during the mid afternoon hours. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 049/081 038/051 027/059 031/067 040/074 043/075 1/B 11/N 54/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 11/B LVM 068 050/073 035/050 025/056 032/066 040/073 043/071 1/N 21/N 54/J 10/U 00/B 00/B 11/B HDN 071 047/081 036/051 026/058 028/068 036/076 040/077 1/B 11/B 55/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/B MLS 066 046/073 034/045 023/053 028/063 036/072 042/073 0/B 11/B 33/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 4BQ 067 048/078 037/048 026/054 031/065 038/074 044/075 0/B 00/B 23/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/B BHK 063 042/072 031/041 019/049 026/060 034/067 039/069 0/B 01/B 42/J 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B SHR 068 042/080 033/046 023/053 027/067 036/075 040/075 0/B 00/U 25/W 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening FOR ZONES 123>129.
WY...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening FOR ZONE 274.