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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt...
for the following areas... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi...
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard...waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source...radar indicated.
impact...waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near... Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat...lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time...mot...loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout...possible hail...0.00in wind...40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 022328 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 528 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

1. Fairly quiet weather continues with a chance for light snow on Sunday along the North Shore and in northwest Wisconsin. Amounts will be around an inch or less.

2. A series of Clipper systems this upcoming week will bring several additional chances for snow and wintry precip.

3. Temperatures are likely to remain roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the forecast period.

Discussion: Conditions this afternoon have been fairly quiet as high pressure to our east propagates downstream. Cloud cover is expected to increase this evening into tonight as an upper-level trough slides eastward into the Upper Midwest. A shortwave trough currently located around Texas and Oklahoma will be pivoting into the lower Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. A surface low associated with this shortwave will follow a similar path, reaching the northeastern CONUS by Sunday evening. The majority of impacts associated with this sfc low will be east of the CWA. However, northwest WI will still has around a 30-60% chance of seeing a couple tenths of an inch of snow tonight through Sunday.

The greatest impact from Sunday's system in our CWA will be lake and orographically enhanced snowfall along the North Shore. Southeast flow occurring this afternoon is expected to continue tonight into Sunday morning. Light snow is not expected to begin until moisture advection occurs tonight, saturating the low-levels. 850mb temps will only be around -7 to -8 degC tonight into tomorrow with lake sfc temps around 6 degC. This marginal delta-T will result in fairly skinny lake-induced CAPE profiles of 100-200 J/kg per soundings from the CAMs. When accounting for entrainment effects, the strength of lake-effect snow will be reduced. Amounts have been increased slightly along the North Shore in this afternoon's forecast update.
However, totals tonight through Sunday will still only be an inch or less for most. There is about a 30-40% chance for a localized pockets up to 2" near the Lake/Cook County line, which is the reasonable worst case scenario for this weekend's system.

This upcoming week will see a somewhat active pattern as a series of Clipper systems propagate through the CWA. Despite this active pattern, impacts will be minimal as moisture remains scarce and temps sit around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. These above-normal temps will increase daytime highs to or above freezing through the week for most locations. While there are a few chances for widespread light snow, notably on Monday and Wednesday, any snow that accumulates will likely melt from diurnal heating. Total snow accumulations for the upcoming workweek are currently very likely (greater than 70% chance) to be an inch or less.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions across the region this evening. A shortwave is expected to move through the area beginning overnight tonight.
This will bring areas of light snow mainly for HYR and DLH.
Additionally some model soundings are showing possible freezing drizzle, but given the lack of confidence with location and timing, have kept out of the TAFs for now. As this area of precipitation moves in from the south VFR conditions will transition over to MVFR/IFR ceilings and occasional LIFR ceilings.
The lower ceilings should remain through the period as the shortwave continues to affect the region.

MARINE
Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

No hazardous conditions are expected across western Lake Superior over the next 48 hours. A few light rain and snow showers will be possible tonight through Sunday, but winds will remain around 15 knots or less into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 24 33 24 35 / 10 20 0 20 INL 22 34 22 33 / 10 0 0 10 BRD 25 35 23 34 / 0 0 0 20 HYR 23 36 23 37 / 10 20 0 10 ASX 22 35 24 38 / 10 10 0 10

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.

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