Cornucopia, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cornucopia, WI

June 15, 2024 11:12 AM CDT (16:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 1:34 PM   Moonset 12:42 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LSZ146 Expires:202406132245;;967220 Fzus73 Kdlh 132222 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 522 pm cdt Thu jun 13 2024
lsz142>144-146-147-150-162-132245- 522 pm cdt Thu jun 13 2024

.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior - .
the areas affected include - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - . Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
at 521 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near silver bay marina and ore dock to near split rock lighthouse to near castle danger to 6 nm northwest of larsmont, moving east at 50 knots.
locations impacted include - . Ironwood island, sand island, twin points safe harbor, devils island, cat island, beaver bay, north twin island, york island, larsmont, split rock lighthouse, eagle island, rocky island, raspberry island, castle danger, apostle island sea caves, two harbors protected access agate bay, south twin island, otter island, sand bay, and silver bay marina and ore dock.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots and locally higher waves. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately and remain there until winds and waves subside.
&&
lat - .lon 4698 9179 4714 9150 4735 9124 4731 9040 4700 9056 4693 9081 4693 9085 4694 9086 4691 9095 4687 9137

LSZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 151127 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall could cause localized minor flooding mainly in northwest Wisconsin tonight (~25% chance).

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon and evening (~5% chance). Large hail and strong winds are the main threats.

- The threat for very heavy rain and flash flooding is increasing Monday through Tuesday (~35% chance), and scattered strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail are also possible (15% chance) Monday afternoon into Monday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Showers have been persistent for parts of northeast Minnesota this morning with some lift from a passing wave aloft. This area of rain will continue but gradually diminish around mid-day.
Then, increasingly strong southerly flow containing warm air and moisture will advect northward this afternoon into tonight, and in association with a broader shortwave passing by aloft, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop.
PWATs rising to 1.50"-1.75" will be supportive for heavy rain, mainly in northwest Wisconsin, through early Sunday morning. NBM probabilities for >1" are ~40%, and >2" about 10%. Most model ensembles are in good agreement for around 1"-2", and with this first round of rain being fairly progressive, the threat for flash flooding will be pretty low, but about 25% chance for some localized minor flooding given already saturated soils from previous rains.

Strong warm air advection on Sunday will lead to some pretty impressive instability building, though we will also have a strong cap in place. This will combine with weak subsidence aloft to suppress thunderstorm potential (but not completely).
If we can get the cap to bust, there's potential for 2-3k J/kg of MUCAPE to be realized. The latest short-range models suggest a weak cold front could act as an initial trigger for thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the initially elevated nature of these storms, large hail will be the main threat (5% chance). But if they can get organized, they could form a line as they traverse east into northwest Wisconsin Sunday evening, and then a threat for damaging winds could develop (5% chance).
These storms should push east late Sunday night.

Another threat Sunday will be some pretty hot temperatures with some sunshine before storms develop. Highs in the upper 80s are expected in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Those sensitive to heat, especially without effective cooling or adequate hydration, will be most at risk for being affected by these toasty temperatures.

After a very brief potential break in rain for a time late Sunday night, the next round is expected Monday morning as a strong and very moist southwesterly jet sets up aloft, attendant with several passing upper level waves. A very strong push of warm/moist southerly flow at the surface will develop Monday afternoon, and models continue to very highly suggest that there will be strong frontogenesis in the form of a warm front that will set up somewhere in the upper Midwest. At this point, it's looking most likely anywhere from southern Minnesota up to northern Minnesota, with a west-to-east axis from the Dakotas into Upper Michigan. It's still unclear where exactly in this area the front will set up, but there's starting to be a little more agreement in recent model runs. Another piece of uncertainty is how transient the front will be. If it becomes quasi-stationary for a time, then the threat for localized, high-impact flash flooding becomes a real possibility. If it has gradual movement, then the threat for flash flooding still remains high, but impacts could be moderated a bit and more spread out. At this time, it looks like the front may be more slowly moving (i.e. transient), but this could certainly change. Either solution is not a good one, because with PWAT values potentially reaching around 2" (just about as high as they ever get around here), the threat for flash flooding somewhere around the region Monday evening through Tuesday is increasing (~35% at this time). Model soundings are suggestive of deep saturation in the low levels, which means warm rain processes more commonly found in tropical regions (collision- coalescence) may occur here, and this is very efficient at producing heavy rainfall accumulations.

With elevated instability increasing Monday night, there is also a threat for some scattered severe storms (~5-15% chance). Given that most of these will be elevated, large hail will be the main threat, and the potential for severe storms will also be dependent on where the warm front sets up.

Going into Tuesday, a cold front is likely to pass through and bring more chances for scattered severe storms (~5-15% chance).
Damaging winds may be the greatest threat with these as storms likely form into a line that passes through from west to east and gradually ends both the heavy rain and severe storm threat around Tuesday evening or so.

Perhaps a break in the active weather on Wednesday as models suggest possible high pressure, then it looks like potentially more active weather late-week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Area of showers affecting HIB/INL this morning could result in brief MVFR visibilities, but otherwise VFR this morning. Winds will increase from the south today and remain gusty into tonight with gusts a few knots above or below 20 knots expected. Another round of rain will approach from the southwest this afternoon, affecting BRD/HYR/DLH mainly going into this evening. With this, ceilings are expected to gradually fall to IFR and MVFR visibilities are expected at times. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible, especially at HYR, this evening and overnight.
Even if rain doesn't affect HIB/INL, ceilings are still expected to fall to IFR with plenty of low level moisture moving in from the south.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 426 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Northeast winds develop today from around 5-10 kt, gusting up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves up to 2 or perhaps 3 ft locally are expected. Winds only slightly weaken tonight into Sunday, remaining east to northeasterly. Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Sunday morning, especially along the South Shore. Scattered strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail or strong winds are possible Sunday late afternoon and evening (~5% chance).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 20 mi93 minNNE 8G8.9 53°F 30.05
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi73 minE 2.9G2.9 53°F 30.0748°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi93 minNE 5.1G8 50°F 30.06
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi93 minS 4.1G9.9 66°F 30.05
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi53 minENE 9.7 51°F 52°F30.0446°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 47 mi53 minE 9.7 50°F 52°F1 ft30.0745°F


Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KASX25 sm19 minS 0310 smMostly Cloudy66°F55°F68%30.05
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Wind History graph: ASX
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Duluth, MN,




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