Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 12:32 PM   Moonset 1:54 AM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 160542 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1242 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will build overnight into tomorrow with the most impactful rain arriving for Thursday AM commute.

- Quick dry-out on Friday before this weekend brings with it more chances for rain and showers.

- Active pattern continues into next week with multiple shots of rain expected to start the week off.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Short Term:

A gorgeous day across the Northland with plenty of sunshine will see conditions worsen through the afternoon and evening. An approaching shortwave currently across the Dakotas will move through Northern Minnesota tonight and into tomorrow. With it, we will see an occluded front move along with it into our area that will be the focus of our rain chances through tomorrow evening. Rain should overspread from SW to NE through tonight increasing in coverage and intensity. The worst conditions look to peak tomorrow morning just in time for the AM commute. There is a higher chance (30-40%) of heavier showers along the Northshore where some onshore flow and topographic enhancement could come into play. The rain should end across our SW counties around noon and across the Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin later Thursday Afternoon. Rainfall totals look to end up anywhere from 0.25-0.5” which isolated higher amounts where heavier showers end up tomorrow.

Extended Range: Friday will be quite nice with drier conditions expected across our CWA, though we will have a 20-30% chance for some afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a weak upper-level wave passes by. Highs will be closer to 60-65 along the Northshore but close to 75-80 degrees further inland. Our next chance for rain comes from a trough exiting the Canadian Rockies and swinging eastward along the Canadian/US border through the weekend. We will see enhanced rain chances on Saturday as a front moves through the area tied to this trough. While there won’t be the greatest overlap of moisture and shear, we still could see some stronger storms capable of heavy downpours, strong gusts and small hail. Sunday will be dry with highs topping off in the 70s amidst SW flow and mainly sunny conditions. To begin the workweek, another quick moving shortwave will move through the Northern Plains providing us with another shot for showers to start the week. On Tuesday, a more prominent trough will exit the Rocky Mountains and trek in our direction. Details are still quite low confidence at this point but ensembles are suggesting that this could cause a more prolonged period of precipitation in our vicinity.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An area of rain showers moves through the Northland creating MVFR visibility within band. Trailing IFR to MVFR ceilings build in behind the main rain band today and last into the afternoon hours at most terminals, longest in the Arrowhead and Minnesota Borderlands this evening. A wind shift to southeasterly to southerly to westerly occurs today between 15-21Z from west to east. While VFR ceilings prevail this evening, there is a 30-40% chance of radiation fog building over the region after 03Z Friday and lasting past this TAF period into early Friday morning.



MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Easterly to Northeasterly flow will continue into tonight.
Winds could gust up to 25kts and wave heights are capable of reaching 4-5ft through this evening. As a result a Small Craft Advisory is in effect and will last until 3am Thursday. Winds will maintain their easterly component into tomorrow but wind gusts will decrease by up to 5kts with waves decreasing into the 3-4ft range. No Small Craft Advisory has been issued but trends will be watched to see if one is needed through tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Winds will turn more westerly following a frontal passage Thursday afternoon decreasing winds into the 5-10kt range with rain showers expected across the Lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ143>145.

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