Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chain Lake, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Onshore flow continues behind a cold front that passed through western WA last night/this morning. It has slowed and is currently east of the Cascade Crest. Overhead there is a trough remaining through Sunday as the low cuts off and begins to pivot east. The remaining showers are moving east of I-5 this afternoon, and will continue to trickle eastward through the evening. Clouds are clearing west of I-5 on satellite this afternoon, although much will still see cloud coverage going into the evening (especially with any remnants of a convergence zone that are able to persist). Winds will also remain breezy through tonight for areas in the southwest interior/Pacific Coast/Strait of Juan de Fuca coast as the onshore gradient decreases tonight. Western WA will remain onshore through the weekend, with cloud coverage filling back in Saturday morning, and slowly scattering in the afternoon. Sunday is the sunnier of the two weekend days with the trough splitting off.
Temperatures this weekend remain cool, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s, and lows in the low to mid 40s. Sunday will a see a slight increase of temperatures, with highs in the mid 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The ensembles remain in agreement that a ridge will build in behind the departing trough Monday, and remain overhead through early Wednesday. The ridge will amplify as it gets squished in between the low to the east, and the trough over the Gulf of Alaska. The flow will turn more offshore with winds becoming light north/northeast at 5 to 15 mph. A thermal trough is also expected to build along the coast under the ridge. The combination of the ridge, offshore pattern, and thermal trough will lead to a warm few days next week, with Tuesday being the warmest of the forecast period. There remains a medium chance that a few areas in the south sound/interior will see their first 90 of the year with this pattern. A few metro Seattle areas (particularly those away from the water), and areas south of the city will see HeatRisk increase to moderate for the day Tuesday (it will be minor before and after). It's also important to note that a lot of area lakes and rivers are still very cold, with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s (for those recreating near the waters). Lastly, the dry and offshore pattern will result in dry relative humidity (RH) values. See fire discussion below for further details. The remainder of the week returns to onshore and cool as the low in the Gulf of Alaska drifts south. There will also be a couple chances of showers later in the week.

HPR

AVIATION
Southwest flow aloft will continue tonight as a broad upper level trough remains situated over the Gulf of Alaska. Onshore flow continues in the low levels. Some light convergence showers present over southern Snohomish/northern King counties as per latest radar and these will likely persist into tonight before tapering off overnight. Cigs continue to improve with widespread VFR conditions in place...although isolated spots of MVFR are present. That said, this improvement will either halt or regress a bit overnight with low-level moisture still present over W WA. Low-end VFR expected overnight, with occasional dips into high-end MVFR possible.
Terminals more prone to lower cigs, especially PWT, will be more likely for longer periods of high-end MVFR conditions by early Saturday morning. All terminals expected to rebound into solidly VFR conditions by noon Saturday.

KSEA...VFR ceilings this evening with PSCZ showers well north of the terminal. Conditions do not look favorable for these to make their way far enough south to impact latest TAF. Current /as of 03Z/ cigs of at or around 5000 ft will see some regression overnight, leveling off at around 3000 ft by 12Z Saturday morning. Occasional dips down into 2500-3000 ft range are possible /20-25 pct chance/, but not expected to be long-lived enough for TAF inclusion. Cigs improving again by noon Saturday with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Surface winds NE at 6-10 kt this evening shifting SE by 12Z. W to NW winds returning by noon Saturday with range of speeds remaining unaltered.

14/18

MARINE
Strong onshore flow will continue tonight with low pressure over the interior of British Columbia and high pressure building offshore.
Gales will continue across the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca through tonight, with winds expected to ease late tonight into early Saturday. Winds persisting at 15-25 kt across the coastal waters will also ease by Saturday as high pressure starts to build back into the area waters. Seas hovering between 10-12 ft across the coastal waters will subside towards 7-9 ft tonight. Seas of 8-10 ft along the central Strait will also subside back to 4-6 ft by tonight. Another push of westerly winds is likely along the central and eastern Strait Saturday afternoon and evening, with latest HRRR probabilities indicating roughly a 70-100 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 21 kt.

High pressure over the waters will allow for onshore flow to continue to ease over the weekend. Seas across the coastal waters may become confused and steep at times between 6-8 feet at 6-8 seconds under persistent northwesterly winds. Weak offshore flow will then develop early next week as a thermal trough develops near the coast. Offshore flow will be short- lived, however, as additional systems look to move into the area waters by midweek and bring the return of onshore flow.

14

FIRE WEATHER
An upper level ridge will setup a drier, offshore pattern on Monday and Tuesday, with maximum temperatures reaching into the 80s, and up to 90 in a few south sound/south interior locations.
Winds will generally remain light out of the northeast around 5-10 mph, but a few locations in the Cascades may see gusts up to 20 mph from the east. The main concern will be a couple days of drier relative humidity (RH) values, with values during the day dipping to as low as 25 to 30 percent in the mentioned areas. While fuels are not ready yet for red flag conditions, a few dry and shrubby grassy areas, or dry piles of dead fuels may be susceptible to fire starts, and/or rapid fire spread.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Grays Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.