Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chain Lake, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Satellite imagery shows stratus right along the coastline early this morning with just a few high clouds over the remainder of the area. Temperatures at 3 am/10Z were in the mid 50s to lower 70s ( 70 degrees here at the office ).

One more hot day today with near record breaking high temperatures. Western Washington on the backside of a very warm upper level ridge. Low level offshore flow this morning with a thermally induced surface trough along the coast. The thermal trough will shift over the Puget Sound this afternoon. 850 mb temperatures in the plus 20C to plus 23C range this afternoon.
Highs in the 90s will be common from Snohomish county southward with the warmest locations in the Southwest Interior and Cascade foothills close to 100 degrees. Highs on the coast, near the Strait of Juan de Fuca and in the Northwest Interior mostly in the 80s. A heat advisory for most of the area will remain in effect until 11 pm tonight.

Pattern changes tonight as the remnants of what was tropical storm Elida move off the Oregon coast. Low level flow turning onshore. Flow aloft becoming difluent over Western Washington late tonight into Thursday morning. This combined with the arrival of the moisture associated with Elida will produce at least a chance of showers late tonight into Thursday morning.
Convective indexes are marginal with model consensus putting the chance for thunderstorms under 15 percent. Given the remnants are running into an air mass that just produced near record high temperatures will increase the thunderstorm chances enough to include a slight chance of thunderstorms as well for late tonight into Thursday morning. Skies clearing Thursday afternoon for the interior with the band of showers northwest of the area. Another mild night tonight with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Much cooler Thursday with highs in the 70s and lower 80s for the interior and mid 60s along the coast. The transition to onshore flow will push the smoke away from Western Washington by Thursday afternoon.

Remnant of Elida remaining off the coast Thursday night into Friday but nothing spinning out of the low over the area. 500 mb heights still around 580 dms with weak low level onshore flow.
Marine layer not getting east of Puget Sound Friday morning and by afternoon stratus will just be hugging the coastline. Highs once again in the 70s to lower 80s inland and in the mid 60s on the coast. Lows Friday morning in the 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Extended models in pretty good agreement weakening the Elida remnants into an upper level trough that moves inland Saturday bringing a chance of showers to most of the area. Another shortwave, this one associated with an upper level trough off the British Columbia coast, moving through Sunday into Monday morning keeping a chance of showers over at least the northern portions. Upper level trofiness offshore with an upper level ridge well to the east Tuesday. Varying degrees of low level onshore flow through the period will keep temperatures slightly on the cool side. Highs mid 60s coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Lows mostly in the 50s.

AVIATION
High pressure will lead to dry and stable weather over western WA today. At the coast, a shallow marine layer will bring IFR to LIFR conditions early this morning. An onshore push will lead to more extensive marine clouds along the coast tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, mid level moisture will increase this evening and Thursday with a chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms over the region. Showers will mainly impact the mountains Thursday afternoon. 33

KSEA...VFR today with N wind 5-10 kt. Winds will switch to SW around 06Z tonight with possible MVFR cigs by 12Z. High-based showers also in the vicinity by 12Z Thurs. 33

MARINE
A thermal trough along the coast will shift inland today and Thursday with stronger onshore flow developing. Onshore flow will continue Friday through the weekend. Highest winds and waves will be through the central/east Strait of Juan de Fuca.
33

FIRE WEATHER
Elevated fire weather concerns continue today with hot and dry conditions. Minimum relative humidities will fall as low as 20% to 30% again later this afternoon, with drier locations across the southern Puget Sound potentially bottoming out in the teens.
There is a chance of thunderstorms coming in from the south late Wednesday night into early Thursday which, given the warm and dry conditions, could cause additional ignitions from lightning. The Fire Weather Watch for the southern Cascades and South Sound areas tonight through Thursday afternoon will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Increasing onshore flow beginning later Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and better overnight RH recoveries through the weekend into the first part of next week easing fire weather concerns. Felton


SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Air Quality Alert until 9 AM PDT this morning for Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County.

Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for Black Hills and Southwest Interior Lowlands- West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.