Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockport, WA

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Precipitation associated with a strong atmospheric river has moved into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, and is expected to affect the region directly through Wednesday, and indirectly through the remainder of the week. The key messages regarding this system are highlighted below:

* HEAVY RAIN: Extended periods of moderate to heavy rain to western Washington through Wednesday. Latest forecast models have remained fairly consistent, with the heaviest rainfall arriving today. The moisture plume still looks to briefly shift southward early Tuesday, easing accumulations for some areas before lifting back northward late Tuesday through Wednesday. While areas east of the Olympics will likely see some shadowing at the onset of precipitation, conditions across all of western Washington will be very wet through Wednesday. Areas generally south of Seattle will see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday morning in a 72 hour period, with the Olympics and Cascades on track to see 8 to 12 inches of rain in this timeframe. Locally higher amounts are possible over the southern and central Cascades, where amounts could reach 15 inches or more in 72 hours. This is expected to bring significant river flooding to western Washington, with many area rivers forecast to reach moderate or major flood stage by mid-week. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of western Washington through Friday morning. For more details, see the HYDROLOGY section below.

* WIND: Conditions will be windy area-wide today, with southwesterly winds picking up throughout the day. Winds will peak late in the afternoon and evening, with the strongest gusts along the Pacific Coast reaching 50-55 mph. Gusts elsewhere across the interior will reach 40-45 mph at times.
Winds will gradually ease into Tuesday, but conditions will remain breezy at times.

* COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding remains possible along the Salish Sea coastlines through the first half of the week with high astronomical tides. While the tides will generally remain below or nearing thresholds, heightened river flows or wind effects could exacerbate inundation in some areas around high tide.

In addition, snow levels will briefly lower to near 3500-4000 feet over the mountains early Tuesday, resulting in minor accumulating snow generally above 4500 feet. The higher mountain passes, including Stevens Pass and White Pass, will likely see a few inches of snow accumulation throughout the day Tuesday which could cause brief slippery travel conditions.

The returning surge of moisture later Tuesday afternoon will bring warmer temperatures and higher snow levels through the week. Temperatures will peak well above normal most days this week, with temperatures in the low to upper 50s across the lowlands.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Unsettled conditions continue to be expected into the weekend, though precipitation amounts will start to taper across western Washington by Thursday. It is likely that impacts like lingering river flooding and elevated landslide risk will linger through Thursday for many areas. Ensembles a system likely to brush the area Thursday, with extended long range ensembles hinting at a break Friday, followed by another stronger system likely focused to the north over British Columbia early Saturday and then possibly Western Washington Saturday into Sunday.

15

AVIATION
The first frontal system from an atmospheric river continues to progress across the terminals this afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain will continue to fall across the terminals this afternoon and evening, with varying reduced visibilities down to 2-4 SM, and ceilings continuing to vary between MVFR and IFR. Winds will also peaking this afternoon with gusts out of the southwest with gusts up to 30-40 kt being observed. Later this evening, NW winds will pick up in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The diffluence from the winds will likely turn winds NW in the Puget Sound terminals from 06-12Z. All winds will decrease down to 5-10 kt out of the south late tonight/Tuesday morning. MVFR to IFR cigs will continue into Tuesday morning, with lower visibilities (mist) also lingering into Tuesday morning in the south interior and coast. Ceilings will improve to MVFR/VFR through the day. Next round of moderate to heavy rain will arrive from the SW from 22Z Tuesday onwards, with ceilings lowering to IFR, reduced visibilities, and SW winds increasing again to 20-30 kt late Tuesday.

KSEA...Low MVFR/IFR will continue through the evening with rain lingering through Tuesday morning (~12Z). Some of the rain may be heavy at times, reducing visibilities down to IFR. SW winds 15-20 kt gusting to 30 kt will continue through the evening. A period of N winds is likely from 06Z-12Z (due to diffluence from the Strait of Juan de Fuca), with gusts up to 20 kt still possible as winds turn, but should decrease to 6-10 kt. From 12Z onwards, south winds 6-10 kt gusting to 15 kt will continue through 20Z, with winds decreasing to 4-8 kt. Another round of gusty winds are expected after 00Z 10-15 kt gusting to 25 kt. MVFR ceilings will continue through tonight and into Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain arrives with round 2 around 00Z Wednesday.

HPR

MARINE
The first frontal system from an atmospheric river continues to impact area waters today. The areas with the breeziest SW winds this afternoon are the coastal waters and the interior waters. As the cold front kicks in, strong west winds will pick up in the Strait of Juan de Fuca through tonight. The wind threat will end early Tuesday morning across all waters as winds decrease behind the cold front.
Hazards were adjusted to account for the extended duration of winds behind the front, and also seas of 10-15 ft dropping to 9-12 ft Tuesday. Heavy rain will continue tonight into Tuesday morning, which may reduce visibilities at times. The next system arrives late Tuesday night through Thursday, with more moderate to heavy rain, breezy winds southwest winds (most likely remaining below gale force at this time, but most hazardous to small craft), and seas remaining above 10 ft through Thursday at 9-11 ft, decreasing to 4-6 ft Friday through Saturday. Another system will increase seas and winds early next week.

HPR

HYDROLOGY
A strong atmospheric atmospheric will move through the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday, bringing significant heavy rainfall across the area. 72-hour precipitation amounts between ending Thursday morning will likely reach 2 to 6 inches across the lowlands, with 6 to 10 inches over the Olympics and Cascades with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches over the central and southern Cascades. Rivers will start to sharply rise tonight, with many area rivers reaching flood stage by later this evening. Confidence remains high that a widespread significant river flooding event will commence late Monday and continue through much of the week.

Many rivers flowing off the Cascades and the Olympics are forecast to reach Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stage between this evening and Tuesday, where many of them are forecast to remain through Thursday. While some uncertainty does still remain in regards to the exact flood levels and stages through the next week, it will be critical to monitor the forecasts now and through the next seven days. Additional precipitation is also possible Thursday into Friday, which may keep rivers elevated heading into the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect across all of western Washington through Friday.

With the wet antecedent soil conditions, the landslide threat across the region will increase with this system. Potential has also increased for debris flows over area burn scars, which will continue to be monitored.

Urban and small stream flooding, as well as areas with poor drainage, should be alert to the potential for localized nuisance flooding and ponding on roadways. Low water crossings may become impacted or impassable.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast- Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County- Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast- Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca- Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Gale Warning until 2 AM PST Tuesday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.