Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rockport, WA

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper level/surface shortwave will continue to push off towards the Rockies today. A jet max on the back side of the trough will increase the north flow into the region today and Friday, which will be followed by a ridge building over the region.

A couple areas of showers continue early this morning behind the trough. One area is concentrated in the central/southern Cascades, with the air cold enough still for additional light amounts of snow this morning. Note that the winter storm warning expired last night at 11 PM, and additional snow that falls in these parts of the Cascades are not expected to produce any additional travel impacts.
More showers are moving through the Puget Sound/central interior this morning. The thunder threat concluded yesterday evening, and this morning's precipitation is expected to wrap up late this morning/afternoon.

With the pattern remaining dry the latter part of today through Saturday, the main concern transitions to the cooler temperatures from the influx of cooler Canadian air. Quite a few areas have already cooled off overnight with temperatures this morning in the low to mid 30s. The coldest lowland area is the Chehalis Valley/south interior, where there remains a high likelihood of temperatures falling below freezing by dawn (as cold as the upper 20s). Remaining areas of some of the south Cascade Foothills, Kitsap, Olympic and Pacific Coasts remain on track to see temperatures in the mid 30s this morning. The frost advisory was expanded this morning to include the southern Cascade Foothills (including Maple Valley down to Eatonville). For areas not in the frost advisory, the shower activity has kept clouds low enough that morning temperatures will only drop into the mid/upper 30s. These areas will have a better chance of seeing either low clouds or fog this morning. Morning lows will also be cool enough for frost in a few south sound locations Friday morning.

Thursday and Friday will see a mix of clouds and sun during the day.
Highs will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s, with a few areas seeing mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally be around 5 mph or less during this period.

HPR

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Ensemble guidance continues to bring the next low pressure system south from the Gulf of Alaska offshore past the region this weekend. There remains a significant spread in the eastward extent of the associated front across the region, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall this weekend.
That said, it's likely that most of the interior near and east of Puget Sound remains dry much of the weekend and some additional cloud cover may be the most prominent impact for most. Rain chances are highest across the Olympic Peninsula and coastline. Temperatures likely remain rather mild Sunday and Monday with daytime highs in the 60s, snow levels returning well above the Cascade passes, and little in the way of impactful weather. Confidence decreases in the specifics of the forecast toward the middle of next week with larger differences emerging in ensemble guidance with respect to the evolution of the upper low as it shifts inland through the western U.S.

12

AVIATION
A trough will continue to advance to the east today with increasing northerly flow aloft behind the trough. A couple areas of showers remain in the south Cascades, and the north Puget Sound. These showers were tracking southward this morning. Ceilings are generally MVFR with a few pockets of IFR. The post-trough convergence area has been the primary reason for ceiling drops into IFR, but the probabilities decrease going through the morning. There's a low chance some of these IFR cigs could drop down to the surface for fog (this concerns the Puget Sound terminals and areas to the north with). VFR conditions are expected later this morning into the afternoon regionwide as most cloud coverage clears. There is a medium chance for low-end VFR/MVFR redevelopment tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds today will remain out of the southwest at around 4-8 kt (becoming northwest at the coast later today).

KSEA...Few showers to the north and vicinity of the terminal this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings at times through late this morning.
Conditions become VFR this afternoon. Winds remain out of the southwest 4-8 kt. There is a medium chance of MVFR Friday morning.
Conditions remain dry at the terminal.

HPR

MARINE
Weak high pressure over the waters during the next few days, with winds generally easing in this pattern. Seas remain around 10-12 ft over the coastal waters and will begin to gradually decay through the day today. Meanwhile, we're entering a period of very strong ebb currents on the Grays Harbor bar the next few days. So while seas will be subsiding, conditions may remain rough around the ebbs the next few mornings. A weak westerly push will bring a diurnally driven increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but expect winds to generally remain below advisory speeds (70% chance). The next low pressure system drops south beyond the outer coastal waters, with increasing southerly winds over the coastal waters Saturday. Some uncertainty with the evolution of this system and ensemble guidance favors it remaining far enough offshore to limit winds increasing much above low-end advisory gusts over the coastal zones. However, expect seas to again build into the 6 to 8 ft range (especially over the outer coastal waters) and expect rather choppy conditions.

HYDROLOGY
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.

SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Northern Hood Canal-Port Townsend Area.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.