Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atka, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 6:23PM Friday February 28, 2020 9:36 AM AKST (18:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atka, AK
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location: 52, -175.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 281300 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 400 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A ridge of high pressure aloft was centered over Nunivak Island this morning, with said ridge extending northwest to Russia, and through the Alaska Peninsula. A secondary ridge was centered across the north Pacific, and it was building north into the central Bering Sea and Nunivak Island as well.

Flanking these ridges were a pair of low pressure systems. The first of which was a weak 1000 mb low just west of Yakutat, and this system was quickly trekking towards that location while also weakening. A stronger 985 mb low was centered a few hundred miles south of Shemya. Otherwise, colder air continued to filter into the Kuskokwim River Valley, and the northern Susitna Valley from the north. Here, several locations were below zero, with many reporting temperatures in the negative teens.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

In the short term (through the weekend), the models remain in good agreement at the surface and aloft in their forecast depictions, but there has been a change with how they handle a north Pacific low moving into the Bering. This morning's numerical runs have shifted the track of this low further east, and not have the low crossing the Aleutians near Adak, then take it towards Cape Newenham.

This is at least a couple hundred miles to the east of yesterday's assortment of solutions. This sudden shift has also resulted in increased uncertainty to where and if a new triple point low forms in the northern Gulf or Prince William Sound vicinity.

Heading into next week, the models are in better than average agreement in the synoptic pattern, with the main difference this morning being a portrayal of a deeper mid-level low or trough, diving southeast across the central and southern portions of the state. Should this verify, another Arctic plunge of air into our neck of the woods would be likely. Stay tuned.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

There will be generally quiet weather over Southcentral Alaska today with just a few areas of lower clouds near Kachemak Bay and also the Matanuska Valley early this morning which are expected to clear out by mid-morning. Some lingering snow showers were in the eastern Copper River Basin overnight and early this morning, but they too should move east and out of the area by afternoon. There is some gusty winds through channeled terrain such as near Seward and through Thompson Pass, but that is about it for today.

The quiet weather will start to change tomorrow with the approach of a strong front from the southwest. This will bring some snowfall to Kodiak by late tonight/early Saturday morning and then turn to rain by Saturday afternoon. This front will remain over the northern Gulf and not penetrate inland so even though Kodiak will turn to rain, the rest of Southcentral should remain all snow. Some of the snow may be occasionally heavy over the Kenai Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday, but it is still a little far out to call for a winter weather advisory as overall snowfall accumulation rates look to remain under advisory thresholds.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

One more day of dry conditions. Looming on the horizon, there is a low in the North Pacific that will move into the Bering tonight and continue to close in on Southwest Alaska. The models continue to depict the leading edge of the precipitation shield moving into Bristol Bay and Y-K Delta early Saturday. Generally expecting snow but portions of the AKPEN and Bristol Bay will see a mixed P-type. More precipitation expected Sunday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

An active weather pattern is on deck this forecast period. A low southwest of Adak is going to deepen and sweep across the chain. The pressure gradient will be strong enough to produce widespread gales and areas of storm force winds. Looking at satellite imagery, there is an extensive fetch of tropical moisture associated with this system. The PWs (precipitable water) ranges from 1-1.7 inches and the source region for this moisture is Micronesia. The airmass is being modified as it comes north, but make no mistake this is a juicy system. As time elapses, cold air will get entrained into the backside of the low.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue). Gale force winds will continue around the low in the western Bering on Sunday then diminish to small craft range Sunday night. Gales are expected from south of the Alaska Peninsula through the Gulf Sunday and Sunday night associated with a low in the northern Gulf. Winds are expected to be near storm force in the offshore waters of the Gulf Sunday evening.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu).

An upper level trough will dig into southern Alaska Monday and Tuesday then slide east Wednesday and Thursday, with the axis near the Canadian border Thursday afternoon. High pressure over extreme northeast Russia on Monday will slide eastward behind this trough, pushing into the western Bering on Tuesday and into western Alaska by Thursday. The Ensemble means are in fairly good agreement, but the deterministic models are all over the place on the details. Therefore the forecast confidence past Tuesday is rather low.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . PD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PJS MARINE/LONG TERM . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ADKA2 - 9461380 - Adak Island, AK 70 mi54 min E 26 G 31 35°F 39°F994.1 hPa

Wind History for Adak Island, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Adak Island, Adak Airport, AK71 mi4.7 hrsS 1710.00 miLight Rain0°F0°F%1003.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PADK

Wind History from ADK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmW5SW3CalmS3W7W9W11W6W7NW10NW4SW9SW7CalmW4S4S10S11S11S15S19
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1 day agoCalmNE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3CalmSW4W3S3S4N6N6NW8NW5NW3NW4NW8NW3NW5NW7NW7
2 days ago------CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6W10SW103SW8SW6SW6N4CalmW3CalmW5SW6SW3SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Atka Pass, east end, Atka Island, Alaska
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Atka Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:07 AM HST     2.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:51 AM HST     3.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:29 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:41 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:54 PM HST     1.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:34 PM HST     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.32.52.733.43.63.83.93.73.32.82.21.91.81.92.12.32.62.833.13.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bechevin Bay, Atka Island, Alaska
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Bechevin Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:21 AM HST     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:28 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM HST     2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:41 AM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:08 PM HST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM HST     2.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.81.81.92.12.42.72.932.92.72.421.71.51.41.41.61.822.22.32.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.