Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Naknek, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers continue across the eastern Bering and Southwest through Friday afternoon, tapering off from west to east as the existing shortwaves exit eastward. Diurnal swings in temperature are allowing for snow at night and a mix of rain/snow or rain during the day. Wind speeds will remain lighter for inland areas and mostly sub-small craft for the Bering except for the western Aleutians. This pattern will persist through late Friday morning over the mainland.

To the west, changes arise Friday when an unseasonably strong low moves into the Bering from the North Pacific. Storm force winds and moderate to heavy precipitation are expected for the Adak region as a sting jet moves over the area. Precipitation may start as mixed before transitioning to all rain as warm air advection moves in. The low will slowly move east over the weekend. The leading front will bring a potential for blowing snow across the Aleutian Chain Saturday through early Sunday, and the Pribilof Islands for a few hours early Saturday morning before temperatures warm. These blowing snow conditions will continue along the front, reaching the coastal portion of the Kuskokwim Delta Saturday afternoon as the front pushes inland. Despite the warm air advection in front of the low, cold air will wrap around the back of the low, allowing for higher instability and showery precipitation to form over the Bering as the low moves east.
Looking ahead to next week, an Arctic trough dips into Southwest Alaska, potentially dropping low temperatures into the teens and single digits across the Southwest Mainland beginning Monday night. These temperatures combined with lingering precipitation from the strong low means widespread snowfall is possible over the same period.

AB/JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The upcoming week features a transition to cooler temperatures and unsettled weather across much of the State. A stable weather pattern descending from the north will bring a week of chillier air and intermittent snow showers to the interior and the Alaskan Range. Simultaneously, a weakening but still potent storm in the southern Bering Sea continues to pose a risk to mariners while driving gusty winds and steady precipitation across the Aleutians, the Alaskan Peninsula dn Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid-next week, focus shifts to Southcentral and Southeast regions as a developing storm pulls a deep plume of moisture into the area. This setup is expected to produce several days of moderate to heavy rain and snow with particularly heavy snow accumulation in the Alaska Range alongside high winds through mountain passes. We are also monitoring a very strong North Pacific low. While it currently expected to pass south of the state, there is a possibility it could turn towards the Gulf of Alaska, potentially brining another round of significant weather late next week.

-DD



AVIATION

PANC...Scattered light rain/snow showers will continue through through Friday with periodic drops in visibility as showers move over the terminal. Ceilings of 5-6 kft may rise to 7-9 kft before ceilings start to decrease into the MVFR to IFR range by Friday morning and precipitation changes back to light snow. Winds will generally remain out of the north at 5-10 kts, but could see a switch to light southeasterly winds at times.