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FXAK68 PAFC 011428 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 528 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rain and snow showers continue along the coast from Prince William Sound to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula as wrap around moisture from a low in the southern Gulf of Alaska continues to weaken and push into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska tonight and into Saturday morning.
The rain and snow showers will diminish this evening north of Homer but will linger into Saturday over Kodiak Island. A weak shortwave moving north through the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday will bring the rain and snow showers north along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures near seasonal normals into the weekend with only a slight chance of snow showers into the weekend.

Another deep low pushes north into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday brining with it more substantial and widespread rain and snow for the northern Gulf into Tuesday. The low stalls just east of the Kenai Peninsula on Tuesday and remains stalled in the Northern Gulf into Friday of next week.

CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday evening)...

Generally cloudy and unsettled conditions remain across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians this morning as a series of fronts and surface lows dominate the weather pattern over the region.
Overall, the pattern consists of a broad, long-wave trough anchored by one low over just north of Attu and a second, more vigorous low just north of Cold Bay this morning. A weak, elongated low sits over the Y-K Delta, keeping clouds in place from Bethel to Aniak. A stalled frontal boundary stretching from north of King Salmon to Sleetmute is producing clouds and light snow over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

The compact low north of Cold Bay this morning will move southeast throughout the day as it weakens. Still, a quick hit of gusty winds is expected across the AKPen through the first half of the day along with rain showers, possibly mixing with snow as colder air starts to filter in behind the low. The attendant upper-level low will open into a wave by Saturday morning and eventually lift into Southwest Alaska through Saturday evening.

Farther west, the vertically stacked low will move from north of Attu today to a position south of Atka or Adak by Saturday evening. Colder air will wrap around the back side of the low, allowing for gusty gale-force winds to persist into the weekend across the western half of the Aleutians. Its occluded front will stall just west of the Pribilofs today, potentially lifting back over the Pribilofs for Saturday with an increase in easterly winds and periods of snow. The colder air moving over the western Bering and Aleutians may also destabilize the atmosphere enough for an isolated thunderstorm across these locations for Saturday.
Confidence in this is low, however, and right now it looks like the steepest lapse rates and best chances for any isolated thunderstorm activity are just south of the western Aleutians.

For Southwest Alaska, the stalled frontal boundary across interior Bristol Bay and the Middle Kuskokwim Valley will be the focus for a likely extended period of light snow. The boundary is located in an area of weak deformation between the low over the Y-K Delta and another low east of Kodiak, with the latter low also advecting moisture over Southwest Alaska. It is this combination of moisture advection, lower level convergence along the front, and the deformation of winds aloft that will act to produce the area of light snow. The wave from the AKPen moving over on Saturday will help to further enhance snowfall across this region. By Sunday morning, 4 to 8 inches of snow is possible across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley, with the highest amounts over the Nushagak Hills. 2 to 4 inches is possible farther south near Koliganek.

-TM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Monday through Thursday

The upper level longwave trough extends from the Chukotsk Peninsula across the Northern Bering into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast period. Models and ensembles continue to be mixed with the significant features through Thursday. An Eastern North Pacific low pulls towards Southeastern Alaska, with heavier rainfall expected over the Southeast, but showery precipitation will fall over portions of the North Gulf Coast through midweek.
However, gusty winds are expected across the Alaska Peninsula and around Kodiak Island, beginning with the movement of the North Pacific low. Widespread areas of near gale force winds expand across the Gulf late Monday, with gale force gap winds from the Barren Islands down along the Alaska Peninsula to the Eastern Aleutians. A Easterly barrier jet moves along the North Gulf Coast Tuesday as the low makes its closest approach to the coast, diminishing Wednesday. Gales continue around Kodiak Island, diminishing Thursday.

A Western Bering low brings gusty winds over the Western Aleutians for Monday, moving into the North Pacific Tuesday. A new low center exiting through Anadyr boosts winds to near gale force over the Northern Bering all the way to the Western Coasts by Thursday. Areas of mixed precipitation spread across the Aleutians and Bering through the end of the period.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the weekend. Expect winds to be northerly and vary between 08 and 14 knots.

ER

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Morakas Point
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Fri -- 02:08 AM AKST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:24 AM AKST     12.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:32 PM AKST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:47 PM AKST     19.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Morakas Point, Naknek River, Alaska, Tide feet

Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:55 AM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:41 AM AKST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:31 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:01 AM AKST     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:54 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:34 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:26 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:03 PM AKST     3.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:41 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:42 PM AKST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:27 PM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:00 PM AKST     -2.87 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current, knots

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