Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Naknek, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A front currently situated in the central Bering Sea is bringing light rain showers to the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska this morning. The front will rapidly decay as it moves into the eastern Bering and is expected to have very little impact for Southwest Alaska. A second, separate front moves rapidly along its heels, developing over the Central Aleutians this afternoon and tracking across the Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain through tonight.
Expect another round of wet and windy weather over Unalaska to Pribilofs by this evening. The front reaches the Southwest Coast early Sunday morning, rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence remains largely unchanged, still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the dependency on local temperatures.

Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday morning.

KM/CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally, gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian Islands and AKPen, especially through favored gaps and passes.

By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, will other solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both solutions do suggest a new frontal system entering the westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the progression of guidance.


AVIATION

PANC
CPANC
VFR conditions and light winds will persist for most of the TAF period. There will be a potential for rain showers and lower ceilings (possibly as low as MVFR) to return to the terminal late Tuesday morning.