Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Periods of light rain and snow expected early Friday through the weekend and possibly lingering into early next week.
Precipitation will be mostly rain and melting snow in Interior Valleys and mostly snow at higher elevations.

- Temperatures remain slightly above normal through the weekend with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most valley locations.
Temperatures cool slightly next week.

- Valley winds remain mostly light through the weekend. Winds along ridgetops and through the Alaska Range passes will see gustier periods Saturday. Occasional gusts up to 25 mph possible along Interior Summits and southerly gusts 25 to 35 mph expected through Alaska Range Passes

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Gusty southerly winds along the West Coast Thursday weaken Thursday evening and overnight. Gusts up to 50 mph through the Bering Strait and 25 to 40 mph elsewhere expected Thursday afternoon.

- A mix of rain and snow is expected through Thursday along the West Coast and through midday Friday across the Western Interior. Snow accumulations will be limited by the low ratio, wet snow that is expected for most regions. The heaviest precipitation will be along the southern Seward Peninsula where 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible.

- Another front is expected to reach the West Coast Friday afternoon and evening. Winds will be slightly weaker with the front with southerly gusts up to 45 mph through the Bering Strait and gusts 25 to 35 mph for other areas.

- The second front brings additional precipitation. Once again a rain/snow mix, but slightly cooler temperatures will allow for snow to be more dominant. Generally 1 to 2 inches of snow Friday into Saturday from this front, but greater accumulations of 4 to 7 inches is possible for the Southern Seward Peninsula, especially along south facing slopes.

- Temperatures decrease early next week with daytime highs falling into the 20s and 30s. Remaining wet surfaces may freeze creating slick areas.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Several rounds of gusty southerly winds expected at Point Hope Thursday through Saturday. The strongest gusts expected Thursday around 30 to 45 mph and weaken Friday and Saturday to 20 to 35 mph.

- Periods of snow expected along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range Thursday through the Weekend. Accumulations generally 1 to 3 inches along the Central and Eastern Brooks Range and 2 to 5 inches along the Western Brooks Range.

- Temperatures warm Thursday through the weekend with daytime highs reaching into the 20s to near freezing. Temperatures cool once more next week with daytime highs falling back into the single digits to teens above 0 for much of the Arctic Coast.



FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
For Thursday through Sunday.
At the start of the forecast period Thursday a thin ridge extending north along the West Coast of Alaska moves east as a strong 498 decameter upper level low in eastern Siberia spins shortwave lows through the Bering Sea. A front along the western edge of this ridge pushes east through Thursday and Friday. Gusty southerly winds along the West Coast weaken late Thursday as the front reaches the easternmost portions of the Kotzebue and Norton Sound. Warm temperatures near the surface will cause much of the precipitation associated with this front to fall as wet, melting snow and rain. As the front passes and temperatures cool, wet surfaces may freeze creating very slick areas.

A second front Friday follows the first after a very brief break in-between as another shortwave low pushes through the Bering Sea. This next front is less organized than the first which, when paired with a weakening gradient due to the first front weaken Interior surface pressure, means that the associated winds will be significantly weaker. With the ridge further east temperatures cool slightly along the West Coast allowing a greater portion of this precipitation to fall as snow, especially along south facing slopes where the greatest snow accumulations are expected.

As the ridge is pushed east by the first front, southerly flow develops aloft over the Alaska Range. This keeps the Interior slightly warmer and drier, especially closer to the Alaska Range.
The first front falls apart in the Central Interior creating a wide area of scattered snow and rain showers. Rain is expected primarily in the warmest valleys with snow expected at higher elevations. The second front makes its way inland Saturday into Sunday keeping conditions wetter through the weekend. Colder temperatures follow the second front mostly confined to the West Coast by Sunday.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For late Sunday through next Thursday.
At the start of the extended forecast period late Sunday the remnants of a second front slowly drift east across the Interior.
Colder temperatures settle into the region behind the front as the ridge that was keeping the area warmer is pushed east into Canada.
Temperatures fall slightly along the West Coast and Interior and more significantly across the North Slope. Daytime highs drop into the 20s to low 30s along the West Coast, into the 30s for most Interior Valleys, and into the single digits above 0 for much of the Arctic Coast. Remaining wet surfaces from the earlier wetter weather may freeze with the lower temperatures resulting in slick surfaces.

A potential 3rd round of precipitation approaches from the southwest around midweek next week, but there is uncertainty as to how far north it gets. Areas north of the Lower Yukon may see little to no precipitation from this event.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-808-853-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-809-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-810-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-850-854-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.