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FXAK69 PAFG 092303 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 203 PM AKST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Much of the active weather remains along the West Coast with elevated winds and snow squalls continuing, mostly affecting the tip of the Seward Peninsula, Diomede, and St. Lawrence Island.
Winds strengthen through Monday and Tuesday there. Elsewhere cold conditions persist Sunday, lingering for the North Slope and Brooks Range. Weather becomes more exciting for the Interior into the work week with some chances for snow returning Monday and beyond, though downsloping winds may reduce chances for the Fairbanks area.

DISCUSSION

Aloft...

An upper cut off low within a larger trough stretching along the Alaska Peninsula and into the Aleutians continues to spin a weakening low pressure system over Bristol Bay. Slight ridging over the Canadian Rockies and into the Yukon are pushing high pressure into the eastern Interior, elongating a shortwave across the Brooks Range, with a stringer of clouds and light snow stretching from Nome to the far northern Canadian border. Into midweek, the pattern setting up right now is expected to linger, with ridging over western Canada and troughing over the northeast Pacific bringing disturbances into the Gulf of Alaska and pushing moisture into and over the Alaska Range. Good ensemble agreement for this pattern with multiple lows moving parallel along the Alaska Peninsula and then into the Kenai Peninsula, as high pressure builds under ridging over eastern Russia. This will strengthen pressure gradients over the Bering Sea and bring continuous moisture transport into midweek to portions of the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Low pressure sliding southeast has lead to a weakening pressure gradient and improving conditions across much of the West Coast today. Some areas of snow persist, with ocean-effect snow showers developing with infiltrating cold air. A band of this ocean- induced snowfall is expected to continue through the Bering Strait and into St. Lawerence Island as northerly flow persists.
Elsewhere across the Western Interior fairly dry conditions expected through Sunday. Winds are steadily decreasing this afternoon over the Bering, allowing visibilities to improve.
While north winds will remain in the 25-35 mph range through Monday morning for this area, conditions are not expected to be quite as bad, and the Winter Storm Warning will be allowed to expire. As the pressure gradient over the Chukchi and Bering Seas increases again into the work week however, north winds are expected to increase again, bringing another period of blowing snow and heavily reduced visibilities. Some storm-force gusts seem likely by Tuesday for Diomede and St. Lawerence Islands.
Elsewhere along the West Coast elevated winds will be possible as well, though not as much snow is expected here, with only some light accumulations Monday and Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Another cold day Sunday with highs well below zero once again. As low pressure builds into the Gulf of Alaska Monday that should arrive with some warm air advection warming temperatures up slightly into the single digits for the first half of the work week. This will also arrive with some moisture transport into the Alaska Range and then further into the Interior. Some of the first snowfall for the southern Alaska Range may arrive as early as tomorrow morning, but the better push should be into Monday, when some light snowfall chances make their way further into the Interior as well. In addition to moderate to heavy snowfall over the Alaska Range, some Chinook winds are possible gusting 35-50mph. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed. In Fairbanks, these Chinooks may lead to the valley being downsloped out of the best precipitation, with only very light to no snow expected. The higher terrain north of the Tanana River Valley could see a couple inches of snow both Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Pretty quiet conditions continue for the North Slope, with colder temperatures steadily building in. Some light snow is possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday, though only very slight accumulations are expected.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

Looking into the second half of next week, the general pattern of extended troughing over the Gulf of Alaska, tying in Pacific moisture blasting up to the state should continue through much of the work week. Persisting CAA and northerly flow over the Chukchi Sea and into the Bering Sea, a band of snowfall may linger through and south of the Bering Strait along with very strong winds. Cold temperatures may linger across much of the CWA, with the highest confidence for those along and north of the Brooks Range. This pattern is expected to eventually break down towards the end of the week and into the weekend as ridging pushes across the Bering Sea. However there are large ensembles variations and confidence is very low in this timing, and how persistent the troughing will be.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-806-850-853-854-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.

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Bethel
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Sun -- 10:36 AM AKST     0.09 feet Low Tide
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Apokak Creek entrance
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Apokak Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

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