Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buckland, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light rains continue in the southeastern Interior through Tuesday. Isolated pockets of fog possible Tuesday morning in valleys.

- Breezy northeasterly winds increase Wednesday. Gusts up to 35 mph possible along Interior summits with gusts up to 25 mph possible in valleys unless sheltered from the northeast.

- Southerly gap flow expected in Alaska Range Passes expected Tuesday night and Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusts up to 45 mph expected for the Eastern Alaska Range and gusts up to 40 mph possible for the Western Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Weaker, generally southerly, winds along the West Coast shift easterly Wednesday. Offshore flow expected for most coastal communities. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible, but generally speeds will be 25 mph or less.

- A wave of rain and snow moves north across the West Coast through Tuesday. Primarily rain is expected below 1500 feet with primarily snow expected above 2000 feet. Snow accumulations are expected to be 1.5 inches or fewer and confined mostly to south facing slopes.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Winds shift southerly Tuesday morning with speeds generally around 10 mph across the North Slope. Southerly winds strengthen Tuesday night up to 20 mph along the North Slope and with gusts up to 35 mph in the Brooks Range.



FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
At the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning, a weak low pressure system over Southern Alaska brought moisture to the Southern Interior as light rain for most places. Another strong low pressure system in the North Pacific moves to the Central Aleutians Tuesday morning and continues to move east reaching near Kodiak Island overnight Tuesday. This low will increase northeasterly flow across the Interior Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as support additional rain across the Interior and West Coast. Rain is expected in the valleys and snow is possible at elevations with snow levels generally between 1500 and 2000 feet decreasing further north. The Brooks Range will see mostly snow. Accumulations are expected to be low with most of the moisture getting blocked by the Alaska Range. This low will slowly weaken through the end of the week keeping much of the state wet.



.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Thursday night, the low over the state is still keeping areas from the Brooks Range south wet, but it is weak and disorganized. This continues into the weekend. Another potentially strong low moves east out of the North Pacific near the Aleutians and towards southwestern Alaska Saturday through Monday. Confidence in the track and strength of this next system is very low with a wide range of possible positions by Monday from near Nunivak Island to south of the Gulf of Alaska. Given the large spread there is not yet enough confidence to speak to any particular impacts, but a more northwesterly track is more likely to strengthen in the Bering Sea and could cause areas of high surf and some gusty winds.
Confidence is still far too loo to tell though, but even the current worst case scenario still looks less impactful than either of the two previous large coastal storms seen during the first half of October.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...None.