Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Hedwig, TX

FXUS64 KEWX 100623 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the southern Edwards Plateau into western Hill Country late this afternoon into tonight; all severe hazards are possible.

- The severe weather risk decreases to level 1 to 2 farther east towards the I-35 corridor tonight; main severe hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 1 to 2 risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country tonight.

- Drier weather pattern beyond Wednesday morning; slightly cooler midweek behind Pacific front then warmer into and through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An upper low approaching from the west and a Pacific moisture plume moving into TX will keep the radar echoes active today, with strong storms to develop over West Texas by this afternoon. A few runs of rapid refresh hinted at a strong storm or two leaking out of Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains earlier in the day, but we think the persistent mid clouds and light showery weather should hold the convective temperatures in check until later in the evening. Still, an isolated elevated clap of thunder is reasonable to expect.
Rainfall amounts from these low "chance" category PoPs should be generally below 1/10 inch.

Our PoPs are perhaps a bit generous for Val Verde county as most of the better resolution model data keeps the cap in place through 00Z.
Shortly afterwards there could be explosive development with all severe weather types becoming possible from supercell activity initially, and then some bowing segments as we get later into the evening. This favorable pattern for the bowing segments means that that a potential for brief tornadoes could last in to the late night hours as storms remain intense over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains. Finally, after 3-4 AM or so we should expect to see weaker inflow support for the squall, and we continue to expect a weakened squall to reach the metro cities with a low end severe threat for hail and damaging winds. There is an interesting trend to be monitored, however, as the model run trends have shown a brief re- deepening of the upper low as it crosses TX. This could potentially rekindle some new discrete cell development near the leading edge, so we certainly woouldn't want to downplay the severe threat over the I-35 Corridor just because it's not as severe weather prone as the Edwards Plateau Counties are expected to be.

Model trends have been remarkably consistent on the rain threat area being maintained over the Edwards Plateau counties and partially into the Hill Country. We might anticipate a couple areas where some severe discrete cells moved slow enough that the developing line trained a second round of heavy rain, to warrant a Flash Flood Warning. Most rainfall amounts shown in the QPF reflect a strong squall line that slowly picks up forward speed while weakening as it moved toward the I-35 Corridor. With the past rain event only hitting in isolated spots, run-off issues should be minor in the most populated areas. The southern Counties may have gotten the best deal on rainfall amounts with the past system, this system will hold the higher totals north, while there could be some areas along our southern forecast border that could miss out entirely.

A few strong storms are suggested to be possible near the Highway 77 Corridor counties as daytime heating increases activity by midday.
However, the upper low track has evolved to pass closer to our forecast area as a deeper system, and that will probably deliver a faster mix-down of westerly winds at the bottom of the low. That being the case, we may need to consider cooler afternoon highs for Wednesday afternoon with more areas struggling to get out of the 70s.
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