Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

At the time of writing, convection is initiating behind the cold front stretching from Deep East TX to north central LA. While forcing is relatively weak, the environment is conducive enough to produce severe hazards should any storms get started. The greatest instability is south of the cold front, with SPC mesoanalysis suggesting 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE is present in this area. Plenty of low-level moisture and steep lapse rates across the entire region could contribute to severe hazards, mainly large hail. Damaging winds are also a possibility with some tornado threat that is mainly for our far southern zones, where sfc convection is more likely to develop. These storms should weaken going into the overnight hours with the loss of daytime heating and leave nonsevere showers and thunderstorms behind through Thursday morning. It should be noted that CAM output over the past several days has overperformed and that is being taken into account here. However, the environment warrants some caution, especially if storms continue to initiate.

By tomorrow morning, the cold front should have pushed southeastward through the region, bringing afternoon high temperatures down into the 60s and low 70s. Showers will be quick to spread back northward late Thursday morning and continue through Saturday morning. This extended period of rain looks like it will be nonsevere and bring an additional 1-3 inches of rain to the Ark-La-Tx. Despite being under drought recently, WPC is highlighting much of the area as being at risk of flash and urban flooding, especially on Friday. Temperatures could dip into the 50s and 60s on Friday before the rain ends on Saturday and allows another warming trend to begin this weekend.

Conditions look to stay dry through the weekend and into the first part of next week. Temperatures should climb back into the 80s by Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves through and brings rain chances back into the forecast.

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AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

For the 30/00Z TAF update, yet another day of active weather continues to keep MVFR/IFR skies in place across the airspace.
Frontal passage through the period will maintain lower cigs through most of the rest of the period as another round of -TSRA/-SHRA becomes likely by the end of the period. Northerly surface winds will prevail through the rest of the period. /16/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Spotter activation will likely be needed again this afternoon through tonight for the threat of severe thunderstorms across the region.

/26/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 68 54 58 / 70 50 70 80 MLU 59 71 55 59 / 80 40 60 80 DEQ 53 68 50 62 / 20 20 30 50 TXK 58 69 54 60 / 50 30 40 60 ELD 55 69 51 60 / 60 30 50 70 TYR 61 67 54 57 / 70 60 80 90 GGG 60 67 53 58 / 70 60 80 90 LFK 64 71 57 59 / 70 60 80 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.