Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

One more day of very dry conditions for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Sunday before the apparent early start of the North American Monsoon later this week. Upper level flow shows prevailing southwest winds overhead, with a strengthening subtropical high over the Gulf of America. We'll be bone-dry on Sunday with humidity in the single-digits. Temperatures will be warmer as well as 500mb heights increase. Lowland highs reaching the mid-to-upper 90s Sunday and Monday, with El Paso and the Lower Valley possibly reaching the triple-digit mark for the first time this year.

Main headline for the first week of June will be the arrival of Gulf moisture and daily thunderstorm chances. Consistent south flow within the mid-level 700-850mb layer will usher in moisture up the Rio Grande Valley starting Monday. Precipitable water values beginning 0.3-0.5" on Sunday will jump to 1.1-1.3" by midweek and really show no signs of fully eroding through the month of June. This certainly looks like a monsoonal weather pattern and may persist over the next few weeks.

Monday will signal the start of this moisture push. Rain chances will be limited mostly to the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountain areas along the eastern fringe of the CWA where isolated showers and thunderstorms bring spotty rain. Most of southwest New Mexico will remain dry and very warm.

Storm coverage increases on Tuesday as moisture pushes up the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the east of the Rio Grande. This would include decent chances (30-50%) for the El Paso/Las Cruces metro. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and localized flooding. Gusty outflow winds may kick up dust initially as desert topsoil are still dry.

Wednesday looks to be the best coverage for Southwest New Mexico, with scattered to numerous (60-80% chance) storms. Favorable moisture and instability combined with weak shortwaves aloft around a orphaned closed low over the Gulf of California will be responsible for storm formation that afternoon. Similar impacts being flooding, gusty winds, and hail.

Slight wind down in storm chances next Thursday/Friday as moisture shifts east a bit. Coverage may be a bit less (20-40%)
those days, generally favoring the high terrain (especially the Sacramento Mountains) and east of the Rio Grande (Otero/Hudspeth Counties).

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds this morning will be light and variable, but the low end gusty winds will return for this afternoon, but winds should be less than we saw on Saturday. Our ceilings will continue to be unlimited through Monday morning. Rain chances will return to the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday of this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 508 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

We will have a couple more very dry days before moisture and rain chances return to the forecast. For today and Monday, min RH's will be in the upper single digits in the lowlands and in the teens in area mountains. The good news is that the winds today and Monday will stay well below critical thresholds. Starting on Tuesday we will see a surge of moisture from the east to about the Rio Grande Valley and by Wednesday, the moisture will move across the whole area. Min RH's for Wednesday and Thursday will be above 20% across that whole area. As the moisture begins to come in Monday and into Tuesday we could see some breezy and gusty east or northeast winds. We will have a good chance for rain east of the river on Tuesday and across the whole area on Wednesday and Thursday. Vent rates for today and Monday will range from very good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 71 99 74 97 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 63 94 64 91 / 0 10 10 50 Las Cruces 59 96 65 95 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 67 96 68 92 / 0 10 10 70 Cloudcroft 50 75 51 70 / 0 30 20 80 Truth or Consequences 61 95 66 92 / 0 0 0 50 Silver City 55 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 58 99 63 99 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 59 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 68 97 71 95 / 0 0 10 30 Dell City 61 97 63 92 / 0 20 10 50 Fort Hancock 68 101 70 99 / 0 10 10 50 Loma Linda 64 91 66 88 / 0 10 10 50 Fabens 66 101 69 98 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Teresa 62 96 66 95 / 0 0 10 20 White Sands HQ 71 97 75 94 / 0 0 20 40 Jornada Range 61 96 66 93 / 0 0 20 40 Hatch 60 99 66 96 / 0 0 20 40 Columbus 64 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 63 95 66 92 / 0 10 10 60 Mayhill 55 86 56 81 / 0 40 20 90 Mescalero 53 84 55 80 / 0 30 20 90 Timberon 51 82 52 78 / 0 20 10 70 Winston 51 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 60 Hillsboro 61 93 65 91 / 0 0 10 40 Spaceport 58 95 63 92 / 0 0 20 50 Lake Roberts 51 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 40 Hurley 55 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 54 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 53 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 57 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 59 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.