Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Weak ridging between a shortwave trough moving through the Deep South and an upper low over the Gulf of California will provide generally quiet weather over the next 12 hours or so. It is possible that some warm/moist advection showers may form this morning as the low level jet ushers in low clouds and more gulf moisture, but any precip would be light and short lived. CLouds and a persistent south breeze will otherwise keep temperatures well above normal, with morning lows expected to remain in the mid to upper 60s (a few sites may may not drop below 70).

Meanwhile, the primary weather feature of note is the upper low off to our west, which will generate an active convective period across much of Texas today and Wednesday. For North and Central Texas, synoptic scale lift will begin to arrive as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Recent CAMs have keyed in on a region of enhanced moisture and lift over Central Texas as being the most likely location where the first round of convection will initiate (around 2-3 PM). Without a surface focusing mechanism, updrafts will need to overcome a warm layer in the 850-700mb layer, but any cells that do form will have a good chance of becoming severe. Though storms may remain isolated in nature, an unstable and highly sheared environment will make all modes of severe weather possible.

The afternoon storms will begin to exit to the east around sunset as new development occurs across the Big Country along a dryline.
Initial dryline development should be in the form of supercells, any of which would be capable of 2+ inch hail and damaging winds gusts, primarily for areas near and west of Highway 281. Southwest to northeast oriented shear vectors will lead to rapid upscale growth into a linear system as the dryline advances east. Damaging winds and a few spin-up tornadoes will be possible as the QLCS encroaches on the I-35 corridor late in the evening. Large hail may also remain a concern if any embedded supercells are able to maintain a rotating updraft for an extended period of time, but the hail threat typically decreases when storm mode transition from discrete to linear.

Either way, an overall downward trend in intensity is expected after midnight as this line crosses, then moves east of I-35, due to the loss of instability and re-strengthening of the cap. That being said, a few line segments may still be capable of damaging winds as convection continues across East and eastern Central Texas into the pre-dawn hours.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Though the upper low will be progressive, it doesn't look like it will completely merge with a northern branch shortwave like it did at this time yesterday. This will slow the system down just enough to generate one last round of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Convection will likely become focused along a trailing cold front, with the best coverage and highest POPs being along/south of I-30 and along/east of I-35, though isolated storms will still remain possible farther west and north. The cold core aloft and subsequent steep lapse rates, along with nearly 50 knots of effective shear, may lead to the development of a few severe storms with both damaging winds and quarter to half dollar sized hail possible. Timing of the potential strong to severe thunderstorms would be late morning through Wednesday afternoon.

All activity will exit to the east and south near or shortly after sunset as the upper low moves east and the cold front pushes south. Much cooler air will enter behind the front, with Thursday morning lows ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s.
Thursday will end up being a rather cool and pleasant day as high pressure settles in, with plentiful sun and highs in the 60s.

Return flow will resume on Friday as the post-frontal ridge shifts east of the region. This and an upper ridge nosing in from the west will lead to a warming trend this weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s along with highs in the 70s and 80s. A trough will then rapidly deepen across the eastern half of the CONUS Sunday and Monday, sending a strong cold front through the region. Much cooler weather will be the result as we start next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Spotty low ceilings between 020 and 030 are beginning to develop across the region, but more widespread MVFR should surge north in the morning, reaching KACT around 09Z and the DFW Metroplex around 11Z. If the spotty cigs become more widespread, the timing may need to be moved up.

A round of afternoon convection associated with an upper low moving in from the west will affect Central Texas this afternoon, warranting a TEMPO for TS at KACT from 18-22Z. The most recent round of convection-allowing model guidance keeps activity south of the Metroplex, but will keep VCTS in from 18-22Z to account for any potential left-movers. A line of dryline-induced convection may be on a weakening trend while approaching from the west Tuesday evening, but should still impact DFW area airports late evening starting around 11/04Z. Activity will likely not reach KACT until after 06Z.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon across Central Texas, and this evening across western North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 63 77 44 / 20 90 50 10 Waco 80 61 77 45 / 60 80 60 30 Paris 78 62 74 42 / 50 90 70 20 Denton 80 59 75 39 / 30 90 40 10 McKinney 80 63 75 42 / 20 90 50 20 Dallas 81 62 77 45 / 20 90 50 20 Terrell 80 63 76 43 / 50 90 70 30 Corsicana 83 65 78 47 / 60 80 80 30 Temple 82 62 78 45 / 50 80 60 30 Mineral Wells 82 57 76 39 / 60 90 30 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.