Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trinidad, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A warm, muggy early March night is expected tonight as southerly low-level flow continues to draw Gulf moisture into North and Central Texas. Low stratus will overspread much of the region by sunrise Wednesday morning with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s across most of the forecast area.

A compact, mid-level shortwave will sweep across the Central Plains on Wednesday pushing a slow-moving cold front into portions of north-central Texas by midday. Steepening 700-500mb lapse rates and continued warm-moist advection will lead to a plume of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along and ahead of the frontal boundary across much of North Texas by Wednesday afternoon. Subtle capping centered near 750mb will likely keep more robust convection from developing near and along the front until after 4-5PM Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the front earlier in the day will remain possible. The front will be situated near the I-35 and I-20W corridors by the time conditions become more supportive of deep convection. High-resolution guidance varies in overall coverage, with the HRRR/RRFS solutions acting more bullish on widespread thunderstorm activity and the 3km NAM remaining more bearish. Only 20-25 kts of effective bulk shear will keep the potential for organized storms and the overall severe weather threat on the lower end, however the environment will support a few more robust cells capable of producing isolated hail up to 1.5-2" in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. The main window for severe weather will be in the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Although deep-layer shear will be less than impressive for widespread organized storms, some modest low-level shear and sufficient low-level instability may support a quick spin-up Wednesday evening, especially north of I-20. Most thunderstorm activity will diminish in intensity and shift north of the Red River late Wednesday night (generally after midnight)
as the diurnal decrease in instability occurs and the front lifts back northward.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Favorable southwesterly flow aloft will remain overhead Thursday.
However, other sources of lift outside of warm-advection and subtle mid-level shortwaves will be negligible keeping any shower development more isolated to scattered during the day Thursday.
The best potential for scattered rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder during the day Thursday will be across parts of North Texas near the nose of better theta-e advection. We will be monitoring decaying dryline thunderstorm activity out of West Texas to see if it makes a run for our Big Country counties west of Highway 281 late Thursday evening. There may be a brief window for an isolated hail and wind threat in these counties.

A more robust mid-level shortwave will enter the Central Plains on Friday increasing a belt of southwesterlies over North and Central Texas. A moist and unstable airmass will likely settle over the region east of a dryline expected to reside west of I-35 by Friday afternoon. The better synoptic-scale lift will remain north of our forecast area, so low-level convergence along the dryline will likely favor more scattered convection initially (especially with concerns on how cloud cover impacts overall daytime destabilization). 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and moderate instability will promote the development of supercellular storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even a couple tornadoes. The greatest severe weather threat will exist north of I-20 nearer to the Red River where sufficient low-level SRH will likely overlap moderate instability for several hours late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Saturday into Sunday as a cold front enters North and Central Texas and persistent shortwaves move through the southwesterly flow aloft.
An anomalously moist airmass will lead to efficient rainfall rates and localized flash flooding, especially in areas that observe multiple rounds of storms and training storms. Keep an eye on the forecast this week as we nail down the areas that may observe higher rainfall totals (potentially 3+") this upcoming weekend.
This active weather pattern will likely continue into early next week with rain chances in the forecast Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR stratus is once again spreading over much of North and Central Texas tonight with 1500-2500 ft cigs already over KACT reaching the Metroplex terminals within the next 1-2 hours. Low stratus will remain overhead through midday Wednesday, lifting to VFR status after ~19Z. Intermittent cigs at ~2500-3000 ft may continue to briefly impact the terminals through tomorrow afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Metroplex from the northwest likely stalling across western D10 by mid-afternoon Wednesday. Surface winds at KFTW and KAFW may briefly shift out of the northwest after 22Z Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along and near this boundary late tomorrow afternoon. Overall coverage is still a bit uncertain, so opted to keep just VCTS in the TAF at this moment. Any thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to produce gusty winds and hail. Precipitation chances will largely shift north of the Metroplex by 11PM-12AM Wednesday night.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 65 80 66 / 50 60 50 20 Waco 79 65 82 65 / 40 30 50 10 Paris 77 63 79 63 / 50 60 60 20 Denton 77 60 78 62 / 60 70 60 20 McKinney 77 64 79 65 / 60 70 60 20 Dallas 79 65 81 66 / 50 60 50 20 Terrell 80 64 82 65 / 40 50 50 10 Corsicana 81 67 84 67 / 40 20 40 10 Temple 81 65 83 65 / 50 30 50 10 Mineral Wells 76 59 80 62 / 60 60 60 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.