Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flowing Wells, AZ

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming this afternoon may impact the evening commute (3 pm to 5 pm MST) with brief heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds lasting into the late evening to early morning hours (11 pm to 1 am MST).

-Strong outflow winds in excess of 35 mph (30-50%) may result in areas of blowing dust with potentially hazardous travel along the Interstate 10 corridor.

-Storms training over the same areas in Cochise, Santa Cruz, and eastern Pima counties may lead to localized instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION
Precipitation chances (40-70%) return this afternoon, bringing a shift from the dry stretch we've had since early April as a weather system moves across southeast Arizona. The morning has been mostly dry with substantial cloud cover hanging around south and east of Tucson along with a few sprinkles close to the International Border in Cochise County.

You may have noticed the clouds clearing a little bit in the Tucson Metro, and especially for points just to the west. This will be the focus area for shower and storm development this afternoon with a slight chance (10-20%) for SBCAPE values to exceed 500 J/kg locally.
High-resolution models are in fair agreement that we'll see scattered convective showers and isolated thunderstorms starting to form around the evening commute timeframe (about 3 pm to 5 pm MST)
in the Tucson Metro and points to the south and east. After 6 pm, coverage appears to increase a bit before the whole system glides slowly to the east. By late evening into the early morning hours (between about 10 pm and 1 am MST) shower and storm activity will begin to dissipate from west to east.

While initially, the coverage may appear to be pretty hit or miss, any storms that do form could result in brief heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds. In fact, there is a medium chance (30-50%) for a given storm to produce strong outflow wind gusts in excess of 35 mph supported by RAP DCAPE values around 800-1000 J/kg. There is also a medium chance (30-50%) for moderate to heavy rainfall from a series of training storms in a 3-hour period to total in excess of 1 inch across Santa Cruz, Cochise, and far southeast Pima counties. With HRRR mean precipitable water values between 0.80 to 1.0 inches, localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out mainly south and east of Tucson. WPC has placed Cochise County in a marginal risk for flash flooding with a 5% chance of a flash flood occurring within 25 miles of a point.

It is important to remember that for Tucson, even quick bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall can lead to substantial water in roadway dips and in poor drainage areas impacting commutes. Avoid driving through flooded roads. As for the wind, it doesn't take much wind after an extended dry spell to kick up some dust from organized thunderstorm outflow winds. The I-10 corridor between Phoenix and Tucson looks to be a potential hot spot this afternoon and evening for areas of blowing dust resulting in sudden reduced visibility.

Lingering moisture will keep low end chance for showers mainly for the White mountains Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Days 4 to 7 (Sunday May 3 to Wednesday May 6) Slight chance of showers Sunday across the White mountains with lingering moisture hanging around. Otherwise it'll be a warm day with minor heat risk for the lower elevations. Cooler Monday into Wednesday as a Pacific upper level trof moves into the western CONUS. Breezy Monday and Tuesday with localized elevated fire conditions Tuesday east of Tucson. Tuesday likely the coolest day of the work week with highs 5- 10 degrees below normal. Overall no issues with the forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center for this period.

8-14 day outlooks (May 7 to May 13)
Temperature: Likely above normal (50-60%)
Precipitation: Leaning above normal (33-40%)

AVIATION
Valid through 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN 8k-10k ft AGL with SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA. Gust to 35 kts psbl nr -TSRA. Otrw SFC winds 8-15 kts with ocnl gusts to 22-26 kts thru 01/04Z. Thereafter, SFC winds less than 10 kts and terrain driven thru 01/18Z becoming WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts and gusts up to 22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A Pacific weather system will increase moisture across the area today and bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Thursday into Friday. There is the potential for good wetting rains for the eastern half of the forecast area. By the weekend, Southeast Arizona will return to a warm and drying trend right before another potential weather system early next week.

CLIMATE
April 30th rainfall records.
Tucson airport 0.40" in 1981 Nogales (town site) 0.32" in 1981 Safford (town site) 0.29" in 1951 Douglas airport 0.12" in 1951 Tombstone 0.62" in 1951 Willcox 0.31" in 1951 Benson 0.29" in 1951 Sierra Vista 0.10" in 1980 Ajo 0.20" in 1915

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.