Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rillito, AZ

DISCUSSION
The upper pattern this morning impacting Southeast Arizona is defined by an amplified ridge of high pressure off the California Coast. We will see a significant warm-up approximately 10 degrees over yesterday's readings, with an additional 10 degrees or so of warming again Thursday as the ridge continues to build into the West Coast. This will result in afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90 degrees from Tucson westward into the lower deserts, and into the 80s in the eastern valleys. Although these temperatures will be just below record levels this weekend, they will result in a minor HeatRisk for the majority of our neck of the woods. Those individuals with outdoor activities planned this weekend are urged to maintain adequate hydration and seek shade from the direct sun during the afternoon hours. It may be a good idea for those not used to the heat or heat sensitive to shift the timing of the outdoor activities into the morning hours.

Unfortunately, this heat may only be the appetizer for next week.
More significant heat is possible the middle of next week as the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest is forecast to strengthen overhead. The latest 11/05Z NBM probability for afternoon temperatures 100+ degrees at the Tucson International Airport (KTUS) is 28% next Wednesday, 64% next Thursday and 81% next Friday. This heat (on the order of 25 degrees above climatological normal) would be exceptionally impactful for those engaging in outdoor activities or events while expecting more-typical March temperatures.

AVIATION
Valid through 12/12Z. SKC through the end of the valid period. SFC winds less than 10 kts through 11/19Z this afternoon, becoming NLY/NWLY 10-13 kts this afternoon. Winds will shift to ELY less than 12 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Although sunny and dry conditions with near normal temperatures are on tap for Southeast Arizona today, an upper- level ridge of high pressure building off the West Coast will result in a significant warm-up over the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal are anticipated Friday into this weekend. More significant heat is possible the middle of next week as the ridge across the Desert Southwest is forecast to strengthen. This will result in hot afternoon temperatures near the century mark by the middle to end of next week across the lower deserts of Southeast Arizona. Northerly 20-foot winds 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph today will become easterly overnight and persist into Thursday. More typical diurnally driven winds less than 15 mph will return Friday into the weekend with a few afternoon gusts 20-25 mph across Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties. Minimum RHs 20-30 percent in the valleys and 30 to 30 percent in the mountains today will significantly lower to 10-20 percent areawide Friday into this weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.