Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelican Bay, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Thunderstorms have diminished in intensity and have pushed toward the Red River at this hour as southerly flow re-establishes across North Texas and the cold front that settled near the I-35 corridor earlier today retracts northward back into Oklahoma. The moist airmass will remain overhead through Thursday with widespread low clouds filling in later tonight across much of the region. Expect overnight lows to remain in the low to mid 60s across much of North and Central Texas tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible during the daytime Thursday. It will be difficult to pinpoint exactly where these showers may develop as they will be tied largely to warm-moist advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere, however the greatest rain chances (20-30%) will reside generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. Low clouds will hang around into at least the early afternoon hours with high temperatures nudging into the mid 70s to low 80s. Most of the region will remain dry through Thursday night with overnight lows Thursday night falling into the low to mid 60s once again.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

By early Friday, an upper trough will slide southeast toward the Four Corners region with a leading shortwave ejecting out into the Central Plains. A surface low will likely develop near Central Kansas by midday Friday with a cold front extending out into southeastern Colorado. A dryline will rapidly mix east toward the Highway 281 corridor near our Big Country counties by mid- afternoon Friday with an expansive warm sector noted by low to mid 60s dewpoints stretching from Central Texas into eastern Kansas.
The better synoptic-scale lift and support will remain north of our forecast area, thus circulations along the dryline and warm- advection out in the warm sector will need to do some heavy lifting to initiate convection once the atmosphere become uncapped by 1-2PM Friday afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance is not very excited with the degree of thunderstorm development late Friday. Therefore, we expect thunderstorm coverage in our forecast area to remain more isolated to scattered. Nonetheless, any storm that does develop will feed off an environment favorable for severe storms. 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support organized, supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. A slightly higher tornado threat may materialize Friday evening north of I-20 closer to the Red River as the low-level jet ramps up and leads to large, low-level curvature in the forecasted hodographs and 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. However, a storm needs to be present in this environment to do something interesting, and the overall coverage in North Texas is still a bit uncertain.

More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected as we head into Saturday and this system's cold front pushes into North and Central Texas, interacting with an anomalously moist airmass.
PWATs will be pushing 1.4-1.6" along and south of I-20 during the day Friday which will allow for very efficient rainfall rates and heightened flash flooding concerns, especially beneath training thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected across parts of Central and East Texas with localized 3-4+" possible along and south of I-20 through early Sunday.

Rainfall coverage may decrease the latter half of Sunday into Monday as mid-level height rises build over North and Central Texas and the aforementioned cold front washes out and lifts back northward. However, by Tuesday-Wednesday of next week, long-range guidance highlights a deep trough building over West Texas which would bring the potential for widespread rainfall and severe weather back to our forecast area by midweek.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

MVFR cigs are currently overspreading much of North and Central Texas this morning and will fill in over the Metroplex within the next hour. Low stratus will likely hang around through at least midday, lifting to VFR status after 19Z-20Z. Most locations will remain dry today but there remains a low 20-30% chance that an isolated shower or two with a stray lightning strike moves within the vicinity of the TAF sites. High-resolution guidance has been more confident in this occurring over Central Texas early this afternoon, thus a VCSH mention has been added to the KACT TAF after 18Z. Otherwise, expect south winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts at times through much of this TAF period. MVFR cigs will return once again late Thursday night and early Friday morning.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected today. Activation may be requested again late Friday into Saturday. Stay up-to-date with the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 66 79 60 / 40 20 60 60 Waco 81 65 82 64 / 30 20 50 50 Paris 78 63 79 61 / 40 10 60 80 Denton 77 62 78 54 / 40 20 60 50 McKinney 78 65 79 59 / 40 20 60 60 Dallas 80 66 80 60 / 40 20 60 60 Terrell 80 65 81 61 / 30 20 50 70 Corsicana 84 68 83 67 / 20 10 50 60 Temple 82 65 82 64 / 20 20 30 50 Mineral Wells 80 63 82 54 / 30 20 60 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.