Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Havasu City, AZ

DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday.

Early this morning, lingering showers have finally translated eastward out of northern Lincoln County. However, another wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to develop by early afternoon, mainly confined to northern potions of Mohave County.
The main concerns with storms that develop later today will remain gusty winds and lightning strikes, though brief showers or downpours are possible. However, precipitation potential will begin waning as precipitable water values gradually decrease from west to east today. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected, with temperatures expected to rebound around 5 to 7 degrees over yesterday as mid- level moisture scours out and clearing skies allow for ample solar insolation. This afternoon will be the warmest day of the upcoming forecast, with a downward trend in temperatures beginning on Friday.

Friday into this weekend, an anomalously potent trough for this time of year will translate across the Pacific Northwest, deepening over the Great Basin. This trough will bring a return of gusty southerly to southwesterly winds to the region, scouring out any remaining moisture from this midweek system. Winds increase markedly on Friday, first across the western Mojave Desert, Inyo County, and the higher terrain, with these winds gradually becoming more widespread through Saturday. Widespread gusts to 35 to 45 mph will be common, with local enhancements up to 50 to 55 mph expected in areas favored for terrain-driven downslope winds. Impacts across the region will be hazardous driving conditions due to crosswinds and localized blowing dust, dangerous boating conditions on area lakes, as well as a return of critical fire weather conditions. Given the substantial drying expected with these winds, afternoon RHs will drop to around 5-15% for most locations, with concerns for not only new wind-driven wildfires, but realization of new fire-starts due to lightning strikes from storms that moved across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Additional details can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. Breezy to windy conditions linger into Sunday, with winds shifting to the north in the wake of the trough axis. Sunday looks to be the coolest day of the forecast, with highs around 8 to as much as 15 degrees below normal for late June.

Monday onward, winds decrease and temperatures will begin to rebound slowly as the trough weakens and ridging attempts to build westward into the region. However, given lingering impacts from the weakening trough, the increasing thicknesses will only allow for temperatures to warm a couple of degrees each day, yielding continued below normal temperatures through midweek. By Thursday, temperatures look to be close to normal once again, with ensembles and cluster analyses indicating continued warming through the upcoming July 4th weekend, along with mainly dry conditions. Stay tuned.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Light southeasterly winds expected this morning before southwest wind gusts pick up in the afternoon. These gusts will have directional variability between 200 and 240 and will peak between 25 and 30 kts.
Gusts will decrease in speed and frequency after sunset, though there is a 25 percent chance that gusts around 20 kts persist through the overnight period. Southwest gusts around 25 kts return around sunrise. Temperatures will peak near 105 degrees, with temperatures above 100 degrees between 18 and 04Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
South-to-southwesterly wind gusts expected at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites this afternoon, with peak speeds between 25 and 30 kts.
Gust speeds and frequency decrease after sunset, though there is a 25 percent chance that gusts persist overnight. KBIH will experience gusty south winds this afternoon before veering from the west in the evening around 25 kts, then veering from the north after sunset as gusts diminish. KDAG will gust from the west today and tonight, with speeds peaking between 30 and 35 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover.


FIRE WEATHER
One more round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected today across northern Mohave County, with erratic gusty winds and lightning strikes the main concerns, and widespread wetting rains not expected. A drying trend will begin today region-wide, as min RHs drop under 20 percent for most, and only poor to fair recovery expected tonight. Fairly widespread critical fire weather conditions will develop on Friday, persisting through Saturday evening as southerly to southwesterly winds increase substantially. 20ft winds will gust to 35 to 50 mph at times, with sustained speeds around 20 to 30 mph. Stronger 20ft winds and gusts can be expected in typical terrain-favored areas.
These winds combined with min RHs around 5 to 15 percent and poor nocturnal recovery will lead to high fire danger, with concern for the development of new wind-driven wildfires, attributed to thunderstorms that moved through the area the last couple of days.
The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning Friday morning through late Saturday evening. Much cooler, below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through midweek, along with decreasing winds, especially Monday onward.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.