Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russellville, AR

UPDATE
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Portions of SW AR have received considerable rainfall over the past 12-24 hours, w/ MRMS QPE highlighting bands of 8-10+ inches over far SWrn AR (mainly w/in the Shreveport CWA), and portions of the Ouachita Mountains having received 2-3 inches as of Wed aftn. Short term CAM guidance has been trending towards a similar overnight pattern late Wed night into early Thurs mrng, w/ another round of considerable to excessive rainfall possible acrs portions of Wrn to SWrn AR. A weak LLJ is set to develop over the ARKLATEX region late tonight, accompanied by PWATs near 2 inches or more. Given that there is antecedent flooding in some areas, and regional soils will be primed for faster runoff, have included much of the Ouachitas in a Flood Watch through Thurs aftn.

Concerning rainfall amounts, the last few suites of HRRR/REFS PMM QPF guidance has been consistently highlighting much of SWrn AR w/ rainfall of 2-4 inches, and locally higher totals in excess of 4 inches, as exhibited by select 90th percentile guidance. The greatest flooding threats wl arise where the greatest overlap of QPF occurs w/ Wed rainfall. The flooding threat wl be further exacerbated by terrain influences, and the favored nocturnal window (threat expected to peak between 1AM-7AM Thurs mrng). If you plan to be outside/camping in portions of the Ouachitas Wed night, be sure to stay weather aware, and have multiple ways to receive warning information.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing over portions of N/Cntrl/SE AR this morning. This activity is expected to expand in coverage through the predawn hours thanks to a passing weak upper level shortwave. Today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop with the approach of a secondary weak upper level shortwave set to traverse the region later this afternoon.
Upper level wind profiles will favor an environment conducive for training of storms, given this, flash flooding will be the greatest thunderstorm hazard. Damaging winds can not be ruled out within stronger convection. Highs today are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s. Winds today will be out of the S/SW at around 10 mph. Dew pt temps are expected to creep back into the low/mid 70s by the afternoon.

Synoptically, NW flow will be in place across the region through mid week. By late week, NW flow should briefly transition to zonal flow, then become SW flow as upper level ridge takes shape over the SE U
S
Heading into early next week, the upper level ridge should be situated overtop the Cntrl/Srn MS Valley into the the TN and OH Valley regions.

Early in the period, upper level disturbances are expected to traverse NW flow on a near daily basis resulting in MCS development and/or broken complexes of showers and thunderstorms. Once complexes develop, they should track SE over the region. The main hazards with these storms will be flash flooding and damaging winds. Daily PoP chances will start to wane by the weekend with temps climbing back above to well above average.

Large scale forcing for subsidence should suppress organized rainfall across the area into early portion of next week. With high antecedent soil moisture in place (thanks to recent rainfall)
coupled with warm and moist air advection on S/SWrly winds, temps are expected to climb into the mid/upper 90s with apparent T's reaching or exceeding heat headline criteria. Heat risk is also on par favoring Major Risk category late in the period (driven mainly by warm overnight lows). Talking about warm overnight temps, readings may struggle to fall below 80 degrees in AR River Valley, Cntrl AR, and Ern AR Sunday night through at least Tuesday night.
WBGT temps may approach upper 80s/near 90 over portions of Cntrl AR into Ern sections of the state Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Long range guidance suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region beyond the end of the long term period. This would prolong the period of dangerous heat anticipated across AR.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The shower and thunderstorm threat is anticipated to continue through tomorrow morning. Due to clearing skies and weaker winds, anticipating MVFR to IFR potential increasing through the night.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase tomorrow afternoon again, although the highest chances currently anticipated to be across the northern half of Arkansas. Thus, VCTS and TEMPO TSRA were introduced, with everywhere else prevailing VCSH into this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 87 73 89 76 / 30 50 10 10 Camden AR 92 72 92 76 / 20 0 0 0 Harrison AR 84 72 86 73 / 60 30 30 50 Hot Springs AR 90 73 90 77 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 90 75 91 78 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 90 74 91 77 / 30 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 88 73 88 77 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 84 71 86 73 / 50 40 30 50 Newport AR 88 73 91 76 / 30 50 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 90 74 91 77 / 30 0 0 0 Russellville AR 90 74 91 77 / 30 10 10 10 Searcy AR 89 73 91 76 / 30 20 0 10 Stuttgart AR 89 75 91 78 / 30 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ042-052>054-137-140- 141-237-240-241-340-341.