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FXUS64 KLZK 030003 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 703 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Unseasonably warm temperatures for early October continued again today, as surface high pressure remains in control, and an upper level ridge of high pressure remains across the midsection of the country.

Changes are coming, however, as the surface high pressure slides east to the mid-Atlantic, and a western upper level trof approaches, and begins to break down the ridge tomorrow.

The dry weather will finally come to an end as the trof replaces the ridge on Wednesday, and a surface cold front begins to spread across

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Long term begins with a cold front that moved into the state at the end of the short term continuing to push through the state. Rain chances are forecast to continue through Friday afternoon. Aloft long term begins with a trough of low pressure to the northwest of the state with a ridge of high pressure across the Northeast United States. By Thursday night the trough of low pressure will be centered over Arkansas and will quickly usher in dry air into the region by Friday morning. Do believe the NBM is a bit too slow with the dry air moving into the region and as a result have shut off PoPs a bit earlier than the NBM suggests.

Saturday and Sunday will see dry weather and well below normal temperatures across the forecast area. Surface high pressure will dominate the weather across the region with conditions beginning to warm a few degrees each day beyond the long term.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR condns were noted around the FA Mon evening, and are fcst to prevail thru the coming PD. Overnight, expect light S/Erly winds at most terminals, w/ winds incrsg after 12Z Tues morng, and incrsg diurnal Cu around the region.

/72/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 62 90 64 82 / 0 0 0 30 Camden AR 61 89 66 83 / 0 0 0 30 Harrison AR 61 84 63 74 / 0 0 10 70 Hot Springs AR 63 88 67 83 / 0 0 10 50 Little Rock AR 66 91 68 86 / 0 0 0 40 Monticello AR 63 90 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 61 87 65 82 / 0 0 10 70 Mountain Home AR 62 86 64 75 / 0 0 0 60 Newport AR 63 93 64 83 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 62 91 67 88 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 63 88 66 81 / 0 0 10 70 Searcy AR 61 92 64 85 / 0 0 0 30 Stuttgart AR 63 92 67 87 / 0 0 0 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Little Rock, AR,