Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooresville, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1. Mainly diurnal convection through much of the next seven days, with hotter-than-normal temperatures expected late this week.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Mainly diurnal convection through much of the next seven days, with hotter-than-normal temperatures expected late this week.

A region of height falls over-topping the anticyclone over the Southeast is responsible for ongoing showers and a few storms across mainly the western half of the area this afternoon. Cells have been lining up more or less parallel to the mean deep layer flow, and some brief cell training has resulted in locally heavy rainfall/nuisance hydro issues across the area since this morning
Overall
rainfall rates have been trending down and activity should struggle to maintain itself as it moves east into a more stable environment with increasingly anticyclonic flow aloft. Thus, although additional scattered activity can be expected as conditions heat up/slightly destabilize, the heavy rainfall threat is expected to steadily lower through the afternoon.

Winds aloft are expected to veer to the NW overnight into early Wed, as height falls shift off the East Coast and a short wave ridge approaches the Appalachians from the west. Higher resolution guidance hints at some potential for remnant upstream convection and/or an MCV moving into the forecast area Wed morning, which will obviously impact how the diurnal convective situation will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Not much of a severe storm threat is anticipated with any morning activity, but if there is little-to-no impact upon the mesoscale environment during the morning, then good coverage of diurnal convection can be anticipated, with potential for a few pulse-y severe storms.

As time progresses into late week, the axis of the upper ridge is forecast to become established across or near the CWA, resulting in temperatures warming to above normal Thursday through at least Saturday, with Friday currently looking like the hottest day...with plenty of mid-90s forecast across the Piedmont, and lower 90s across the lower mountain valleys and the foothills. Heat Index values in the 98-102 range are forecast across the Piedmont Fri afternoon. Otherwise, daily H.I.'s are currently forecast to remain in the 90s (or lower) Thursday through Sunday.

In terms of the diurnal convective potential...forecast soundings over the lower elevations generally depict a suppressed/weakly capped environment under the influence of the upper ridge late this week, with better potential for deep convection across the high terrain. As such, PoPs are 20-30% at most across the Piedmont/foothills each afternoon/evening Thursday through Saturday, with more in the way of solid chances across the mountains. The global models are in good agreement in depicting falling heights over the East early next week, warranting increased PoPs for diurnal convection along with a temperature forecast that returns to near-normal levels by Monday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers diminish overnight with a few cig/vsby restrictions for the mtn terminals. Light to calm winds overnight enhance the chance for BR. Expect stratus to form and bring vsby down to 1-2SM before daybreak at KAVL. After 13-14z, conditions should improve back to VFR. Another round of TSRA is possible at all of the sites including KCLT Wednesday afternoon so introduced another slew of PROB30s from 19z-23z, with earlier times for the mtns. Winds should pick up out of the south again, but remain light throughout the TAF period. Expect erratic winds with any shower or TSRA.

Outlook: Diurnal convection and associated restrictions are expected into the weekend. Mtn valley fog and low stratus are possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.