Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN

UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

There is very little active weather ongoing in the vicinity of Middle Tennessee as we head into the evening and we expect very little activity until mid-morning tomorrow. A familiar Bermuda High has become established off the Carolina Coast -- it's a bit early in the year to be seeing that feature on a weather map -- which means we are flush with warm, moist advection across Middle Tennessee. As expected, record highs were set at Nashville and Crossville today, but tomorrow's readings won't be quite so warm owing to additional cloud cover and the expected storms headed our way. The evening sounding from OHX shows a moist, unstable atmosphere already in place, with a SBCAPE of 1,599 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -5. Precipitable Water comes in at 1.27", which isn't quite a record for this date, but is definitely above the 90th percentile and gives us a PWAT+ value of 265 (meaning that the observed PWAT is 265% of the daily mean). So the ingredients are already in place for convective development with the possibility of some high rainfall rates with tomorrow's expected cold front.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 953 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The 88D is operating in clear air mode this evening as we await widespread convective development on Saturday. Overnight temperatures will settle into the low to mid 60s across Middle Tennessee. Tomorrow will be quite warm once again, but not as warm as today's record-breaking temperatures. A strong cold front is approaching from the west, and, according to the 00Z HRRR, we can expect an organized line of convection to enter the mid state tomorrow around 16Z, reach the Nashville Metro Area by 19Z and arrive on the Cumberland Plateau by 22Z. Middle Tennessee remains under a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow, and forecast soundings support this possibility. As an example, the HRRR forecast sounding valid at 18Z for BNA (shortly before the expected line of convection arrives) shows some noteworthy parameters. First of all, the environment is going to be wet; precipitable water comes in at 1.44, which is off-the-charts for this time of year. Look for some high rainfall rates with these storms. Second, the SBCAPE is projected at over 1,100 J/kg with a Lifted Index of -5. So the instability is there for significant convection. Third, the mid-level lapse rate (700-500 mb) comes in at a healthy 6.7°C/km, which is unusually high for a sounding that's this saturated. Thus, sub-severe hail (<1" diameter) is not out of the question. Fourth, low-level wind shear is going to be modest. The 0-3 km helicity comes in at 145, and this is owing mainly to speed shear, as the wind profile is nearly unidirectional. So it looks like the primary risks are going to be 1). strong to severe straight-line winds resulting from wet microbursts, 2). short-lived intense rainfall rates and 3). small hail. There is likely to be a broad area of light to moderate showers following the initial line of storms, so most if not all of Middle Tennessee should receive appreciable rainfall totals.
QPF values through tomorrow night range from 1/2" to 1", and there are likely to be isolated spots that measure in excess of 1".
Although the actual cold front will lag behind the primary band of convection, we should experience a fropa late Saturday night through early Sunday. Temperatures will drop a few degrees following the fropa, but we'll still remain above seasonal norms as we head into the new week.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 953 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The weather pattern across Middle Tennessee will remain unsettled even after this weekend's fropa. Multiple shortwaves and one final cold front will keep medium to high PoPs in the the forecast consistently through Wednesday night, which is when we can expect that cold front. After that we'll transition to a dry pattern for awhile, and also see our temperatures drop closer to seasonal values...at least for a couple of days. QPF totals for the next 7 days range from 1.5" to 3" across the mid state, with the greatest amounts confined primarily to areas west of I-65. This should help alleviate our worsening drought conditions, at least in the short term.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions expected overnight with south to southwest winds of 10 kts or less, however by 12-13Z/Sat, look for MVFR cigs to move in for all terminals with wind gusts picking up to 20 kts. A line of showers and storms will move in around lunchtime Saturday.
These have been tempo'd with a few hours of showers on the backside. VFR conditions should return by 00Z/Sun for all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 66 78 55 69 / 10 90 80 20 Clarksville 66 75 51 68 / 10 100 70 0 Crossville 61 75 56 66 / 10 80 80 60 Columbia 64 77 56 69 / 10 90 70 20 Cookeville 63 76 56 66 / 10 90 80 50 Jamestown 62 76 54 65 / 10 80 80 70 Lawrenceburg 63 76 57 69 / 20 80 80 40 Murfreesboro 65 78 56 68 / 10 90 70 30 Waverly 63 73 51 68 / 10 100 80 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.