Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Searles Valley, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. 5-15% chance of thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada today and through the rest of the week.

2. Above average temperatures across the CWA on Friday and Saturday

3. A closed-low enters our area next week, with the best probability for weather impacts on Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Along with a warming trend that will bring the region 5 to 10 degrees above normal, a slight chance for thunderstorms (5-15%)
is present for the Sierra Nevada starting today and is expected through Saturday (which currently has the strongest chances).
While these chances are small, any strong cell that develops may produce frequent lightning, small hail and localized flooding.

By Sunday into Tuesday, a cut-off low pressure system is expected to move through Central California, raising those thunderstorm chances into the 15-25% range. The day with the highest probabilities are currently on Sunday, which coincides with the cut-off moving onshore into the San Joaquin Valley.
Winds along the Sierra Nevada crest and to the leeward side of the range are also expected to increase, with the highest probabilities in Tulare County (values of 30-50% for 55 mph gusts on Sunday). This system will also cause temperatures to drop about ten degrees below normal by Monday, though this cooling trend will be short lived as the low moves out again and warming begins again by Tuesday.

A late season cut-off low like this one may also be underestimated by the current modeling due to climatology bias, so this may be a more active event than indicated at the moment.
Further runs will be needed to increase confidence.


AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.



CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.