Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farragut, TN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The Sunday through Monday time frame is the period of potential weather impacts as a highly dynamic weather system affects the eastern Conus, and will be the focus of this discussion.

Mountain wave winds: A high-end mountain wave wind event is possible from Sunday until the passage of the cold front late Monday morning.
SE 850 mb winds increase through the day, reaching around 50 kt Sunday evening and peaking around 65 kt later in the night. Model soundings show a strong inversion near mountain top level that will allow for wave ducting. NBM is showing a 75% probability of winds of 50 kt or greater across the Smokies. Confidence is increasing and a High Wind Watch will be issued.

Severe storms: The strong winds aloft ahead of the approaching cold front will result in a damaging wind threat. A line of showers/storms is expected to push through the area Sunday night, with the current expected timing between midnight and 6 AM. While surface-base CAPE will be lacking, the NAM soundings show an elevated mixed layer with MUCPAE over 1000 J/kg, lapse rates of 8 C/km, and dry air aloft. Bowing structures withing the QLCS will be areas of enhanced straight-line damaging winds, and in the highly sheared environment, an isolated short-lived tornado cannot be ruled out. Given the strong QG forcing and jet dynamics, this line will probably maintain its intensity as it moves through our area, despite the overnight timing. While the current SPC Outlook has the Slight Risk in our western half, it would not be surprising to see this shifted east with later updates.

The potent cold front moves through the area Monday morning, and temperatures will likely be falling through the day. Strong cold advection and rapidly falling temperatures aloft will lead to a transition to snow on Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night. Accumulations will likely be limited to the higher elevations and possibly parts of SW VA, but some scattered snow showers will likely occur as far south as the central TN Valley/Knoxville area.
Climatologically, snowfall of 0.5 inches or greater has not occurred this late in the year in Knoxville since 1999. However, this has happened several times in the Tri-Cities and other higher elevation areas. Temperatures will approach record lows on Tuesday morning, and potentially Wednesday morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero wind chills are also likely in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday morning.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. Light northeasterly winds today will become more southerly this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 54 74 41 / 0 0 20 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 49 74 43 / 0 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 70 48 74 41 / 0 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 46 69 47 / 0 0 10 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.