Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Darwin, CA

SHORT TERM
through Tuesday night. Midday satellite loop showed shallow cumulus over the mountains of eastern Lincoln county, extending east into Utah and south to the Mogollon Rim, and clear skies over the rest of our CWA Surface obs showed breezy north winds and temperatures slightly cooler than 24 hours ago. The shortwave trough which was noted over central California overnight has zipped southwest to a position well offshore of Point Conception, and will continue to move southwest to near 25N 128W by Tuesday night. This will leave our area under dry north to northeast flow aloft through the short term period, with wind as the only concern. Winds were gusting around 40 mph in the Colorado River Valley again, and this is likely to continue, so the Wind Advisory there looks good. As was the case yesterday, a couple of stations in the southern Owens Valley were gusting to around 40 mph. High resolution model output suggests that these winds will remain isolated in space, so do not plan to expand the Advisory there.
Otherwise, temperatures will warm a few degrees tomorrow as the low gets farther away and heights rise.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday.

On Wednesday, there is good consistency with current model solutions versus 24 hours ago, but enough spread that confidence is average. The overall pattern shows the cutoff low well offshore of the Baja and high pressure just offshore of northern California, forming a short-lived Rex block. By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Alaska squashes the high (and thus the block), giving the cutoff low a chance to get picked up and carried east. There is good agreement on this general idea, but a lot of differences in the details which could impact sensible weather in our area. Thursday night, the low should be coming inland, but exactly how far north or south is in question. This and its eastward speed will determine whether/how much moisture gets pulled northward into our CWA The GFS precipitable water forecast, which was already meager (0.3-0.4 inch) yesterday is even more so today (0.25 inch, rising to 0.3 inch under the low center).Once the low passes by, a fast-moving shortwave trough is forecast to dive down from the north, bringing modest PW of 0.3-0.4 inch with it, along with enough dynamic forcing to wring out clouds and maybe light precip.
A big longwave trough gets carved out over the middle of the country over the weekend, leaving us under north to northwest mid level flow on the back side, which will likely bring additional weak shortwave troughs. Temperatures will rise to near normal Wednesday through Friday before the aforementioned northerly flow cools us down again.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...North to northeast winds with gusts to 25 knots will continue through the afternoon before turning more northerly and decreasing around sunset. Winds are expected to remain between 010 and 040 degrees, but there is a 20 percent chance they could go as far east as 050 degrees. North winds continue overnight with gusts ending, and speeds remain around 10 knots.
Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, with northeast winds returning and speeds gusting to around 20 knots once again. No significant cloud cover is forecast through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...The Las Vegas area TAFs will be similar to what is discussed for Harry Reid above. Winds in the lower Colorado River Valley, including KIFP and KEED, will remain northerly into Tuesday.
Afternoon gusts to near 40 knots will be possible near KIFP, while winds at KEED should top out around 35 knots. At KBIH, northerly winds are also expected, but speeds will remain less than 10 knots.
Across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, northerly winds with gusts to 25 knots will persist into the early evening before becoming light and variable overnight. No significant cloud cover is forecast across the entire region through Tuesday morning.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.