Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lead Hill, AR

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thru the next few days, hazardous heat and humidity levels wl continue to be the main talking point acrs the FA. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees. The greatest concern for heat risk and hazardous heat levels wl exist acrs the AR River Valley, and much of Ern AR and the River Delta regions.

Thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe, there is reasonable consensus on the evolution of an upper trof set to move acrs the Great Lakes regions, w/ asctd sfc cyclonic flow and a trailing cdfrnt extending SWwrd into the Ozark Plateau and Srn Plains late Thurs evng. There wl lkly be an attendant isolated severe threat acrs NWrn ahead of the frnt as it approaches into moderate instability, but weaker effective shear, generally less than 30 knots. Main threats w/ any ongoing storms would be large hail and damaging winds.

The aforementioned frnt is progged to stall out acrs the Ozark Plateau vcty, and become the focus for daily PoPs thru the weekend.
NBM guidance remains settled on weekend QPF totals around 2 to 3 inches acrs at least the Wrn half of the state, w/ probabilistic QPF thresholds for at least two inches up to 40 to 50%. For now, there is still higher uncertainty w/ NBM IQR spread around 2 inches, and 10th to 90th percentile spread closer to 4 inches over much of the state.

GFS/ECMWF fcst mass fields continue to indicate higher deterministic QPF progs are contributable to mesoscale features in the model output, and still have a higher degree of variability in time and space at the end range of the current fcst PD. Ensemble guidance remains rooted on widespread rainfall potential over the Srn Plains during the Sun-Tues timeframe, w/ a favorable synoptic pattern for possibly heavy to excessive rainfall at times.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The terminal of KHRO will begin the period in MVFR flight category for reduced VSBY to begin the forecast period early Wednesday morning for a few hours prior to sunrise. Additionally, KHRO will also experience low level wind shear for the first few hours of the forecast period. All other sites will remain VFR for the entire period. Surface winds will gust late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening across all sites in excess of 20 knots; surface winds will lose their gusting condition on Wednesday evening across all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 93 78 94 75 / 0 0 0 50 Camden AR 94 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 89 75 89 68 / 0 0 0 90 Hot Springs AR 92 79 93 77 / 0 0 0 50 Little Rock AR 93 79 93 77 / 0 0 0 50 Monticello AR 94 77 96 79 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 90 79 91 76 / 0 0 0 70 Mountain Home AR 90 75 90 70 / 0 0 0 80 Newport AR 93 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 93 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 40 Russellville AR 93 79 93 76 / 0 0 0 70 Searcy AR 94 77 95 75 / 0 0 0 40 Stuttgart AR 93 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.