Jonesville, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesville, VA

June 17, 2024 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 1:58 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jonesville, VA
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Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 180008 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 808 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 805 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Convection has generally ended as expected by 00Z, so updating zones to remove the pre-first period afternoon wording.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A warm and muggy afternoon across the forecast area with scattered showers and thunderstorms over east Tennessee and parts of southwest Virginia. The storms are moving slowly north to northwest near the edge of upper Ridge centered over NC. Visible satellite imagery showing increasing shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Shear is minimal and there is very weak mean flow of just 5-10 kts. Storms should be moving very slowly and could be tied to the terrain. PWs of around 1.5-1.7 inches, are at or above the 90th percentile, which when combined with the 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support potentially widespread coverage through early evening. Storms should decrease with sunset.
Rainfall rates within any slow moving storm may exceed 1"/hr, with one inch already this afternoon with a storm near Cosby in Cocke County. The storms may not last that long in any one place.
However, a few spots of 2-3" of rain are possible according to WPC. If a cell sits over a more sensitive terrain feature or urban area there is a chance of flooding. Later tonight fog will form where rainfall occurs. Upper ridge strengthens Tuesday north through the mid Atlantic and west into the eastern TN Valley with little chance of convection over much of the area. There will still be a slight chance of showers and storms near the KY/VA border and in the Big South Fork area on the edge of the building Ridge. Highs Tuesday will be near todays in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Index values were in the lower to mid 90s today and should be in the same range Tuesday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

1. Average temperatures Wednesday, then hot weather to continue.

2. Next low chance of showers and thunderstorms (20 to 30%) to arrive during the weekend.

Discussion:

Another day, another discussion about the upper ridge and the warm summer temperatures. The period begins with the trend of a 500mb high continuing until Friday, with light flow aloft. A surface high remains off the coast of Virginia/North Carolina, fading away by Sunday. While the intense part of the ridge will remain displaced from our local area, the broad higher heights coupled with seasonable humidity will maintain high heat indices in the Tennessee valley. Ensemble probabilities of CAPE > 500 are at 0 for the remainder of the workweek, and NBM maintains 0 PoPs thanks to the suppressive ridge.

With the arrival of the weekend, a pattern change shall arrive. The upper level ridge is forecast to weaken, and an upper trough pushes into the Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing weak southerly flow into the area. Ensembles have been consistent the last several runs in agreement with the deterministic global models in depicting the weekend evolution of the upper trough, so rising confidence the trough will be moving into the eastern US at the end of the period.
Sunday might be the last truly hot day then shall see if temperatures can edge cooler Monday at the very end of the period when more widespread rain chances arrive.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mostly VFR expected at the TAF sites, except for some MVFR with BR overnight 08Z-12Z at TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 75 91 72 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 72 90 69 / 40 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 91 69 / 30 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 89 65 / 50 10 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.




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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,




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