Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jonesville, VA
July 3, 2024 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM Moonset 6:18 PM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 030221 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1021 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Forecast remains on track as remnant clouds from this afternoon cu field remain most prominent across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. These will continue to dissipate over the next few hours, with mostly clear skies leading to overnight lows ranging from the low 70s to a cool low 60s across the region.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry and warmer on Wednesday.
2. Heat Index around 100 degrees across the central and southern TN Valley.
Discussion:
Quiet tonight. Mostly dry and warmer tomorrow with ridging centered to our south. The majority of the area will be dry. However, some of the HI-Res models and NBM show a few isolated showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Not sold on this idea due to some mid-level capping showing up in NAM soundings. Did leave some slight chance POPs in place across southwest NC but took them out elsewhere.
Otherwise, warmer tomorrow with temps in the lower 90s for most areas. Afternoon Heat Index will be around 100 degrees for the central and southern TN Valley.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Chances for showers and storms during the long term period, with the highest chances expected Friday into Saturday.
2. Hot and humid will stick around until the end of the week with slight improvement over the weekend into next week.
Discussion:
Besides the very early parts of the extended forecast, good news as far as chances for showers and thunderstorms will return for the rest of the period into next week. Return flow currently setting up across the forecast area will increase and persist through the end of the week, providing an increase in atmospheric moisture and heat index values. Thursday and Friday will feel like the hottest days, with heat index values for parts of the valley in the upper 90s to low 100s. The ridge aloft will become suppressed some as shortwave energy crosses the top of the ridge Thursday which will help spark some activity. As of this morning, SPC has placed western portions of our CWA in a MRGL risk for severe weather Thursday. Will see how this plays out, but CAPE values hardly go above 1000 J/kg over the plateau and mountainous areas.
The best chances for numerous coverage of showers and storms resulting in at least some measurable precipitation (up to a half to near three quarters of an inch) will be Friday into Saturday as a trough crosses over the Great Lakes region sending a cold front our way. Temperatures will be much improved Saturday onward. Drier air won't be replacing the moisture, as it is expected to persist even with temperatures falling a couple of degrees. As a result, heat index values will stay below 100. Height falls are in the forecast the early part of next week as a trough appears to set up across the middle part of the country.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions and light winds generally 10kts or less are expected at all sites for the 00Z TAF cycle.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 77 96 / 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 94 75 94 / 0 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 91 70 91 / 0 10 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1021 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Forecast remains on track as remnant clouds from this afternoon cu field remain most prominent across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. These will continue to dissipate over the next few hours, with mostly clear skies leading to overnight lows ranging from the low 70s to a cool low 60s across the region.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry and warmer on Wednesday.
2. Heat Index around 100 degrees across the central and southern TN Valley.
Discussion:
Quiet tonight. Mostly dry and warmer tomorrow with ridging centered to our south. The majority of the area will be dry. However, some of the HI-Res models and NBM show a few isolated showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Not sold on this idea due to some mid-level capping showing up in NAM soundings. Did leave some slight chance POPs in place across southwest NC but took them out elsewhere.
Otherwise, warmer tomorrow with temps in the lower 90s for most areas. Afternoon Heat Index will be around 100 degrees for the central and southern TN Valley.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Chances for showers and storms during the long term period, with the highest chances expected Friday into Saturday.
2. Hot and humid will stick around until the end of the week with slight improvement over the weekend into next week.
Discussion:
Besides the very early parts of the extended forecast, good news as far as chances for showers and thunderstorms will return for the rest of the period into next week. Return flow currently setting up across the forecast area will increase and persist through the end of the week, providing an increase in atmospheric moisture and heat index values. Thursday and Friday will feel like the hottest days, with heat index values for parts of the valley in the upper 90s to low 100s. The ridge aloft will become suppressed some as shortwave energy crosses the top of the ridge Thursday which will help spark some activity. As of this morning, SPC has placed western portions of our CWA in a MRGL risk for severe weather Thursday. Will see how this plays out, but CAPE values hardly go above 1000 J/kg over the plateau and mountainous areas.
The best chances for numerous coverage of showers and storms resulting in at least some measurable precipitation (up to a half to near three quarters of an inch) will be Friday into Saturday as a trough crosses over the Great Lakes region sending a cold front our way. Temperatures will be much improved Saturday onward. Drier air won't be replacing the moisture, as it is expected to persist even with temperatures falling a couple of degrees. As a result, heat index values will stay below 100. Height falls are in the forecast the early part of next week as a trough appears to set up across the middle part of the country.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions and light winds generally 10kts or less are expected at all sites for the 00Z TAF cycle.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 77 96 / 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 94 75 94 / 0 10 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 70 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 91 70 91 / 0 10 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K0VG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K0VG
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K0VG
Wind History graph: 0VG
(wind in knots)
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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