Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1155 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

A large area of low clouds and dense fog has descended through much of eastern Kentucky on account of the snowpack and some warming off the surface. This is affecting the higher elevations and ridgetops of the area hardest. With most places below freezing some of the fog will contain frozen water droplets and could deposit on various surfaces with a potential for slick spots on area roads. For this reason, an SPS has been issued for the next several hours and may have to be re-upped before dawn as the core threat area is expected to drift slowly south. Otherwise, updated the grids with the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, WSW, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Some generally minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent observations mainly to include patchy fog where some stratus build down and snowmelt appear to be leading to fog on ridgetops in the KPBX to KCPF to KJKL. With low dewpoint depressions following some snowmelt, any areas with clearing of low and mid clouds may experience additional or renewed patchy fog if not areas of fog in some places. The more southern and southeastern locations would be the most probable locations for that.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 4 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered in southwest Ontario within an upper level trough that extended from Central portions of Canada into the mid to upper MS Valley downstream of an upper ridge over much western Conus. Weak height rises are currently occurring the OH Valley behind the system that crossed eastern KY last night to early this morning. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from the Carolinas to a sfc wave eastern TN with this boundary trailing into the Southern Plains to CO front range/lee of the Rockies. Further upstream, a sfc low associated with the upper low in Ontario was centered in Ontario with a cold front trialing into the Central Plains. Some breaks in the low clouds and clearing has developed over much of the Commonwealth though low clouds persisted in much of the northern half of the CWA Temperatures have reached the upper 30s to low 40s where the clouds scattered or cleared with mainly low to mid 30s under the low clouds.

Tonight and Saturday, the upper low should meander to the northern Great Lakes vicinity with an initial shortwave rotating around it moving across the Great Lakes tonight and into Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave moving around the ridging in the western Conus to southwest Canada is expected to trek southeast to the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley by Saturday evening. Guidance also has a jet streak north of the OH River on Saturday. This jet streak likely provides some favorable potential right entrance region dynamics in the more northern portions of the area Saturday evening before it departs to the north and east overnight. This will coincide with the mid level shortwave trough rotating into the Lower OH Valley late Saturday afternoon and evening. The axis of this shortwave trough should move east of eastern KY late Saturday night. Meanwhile, at the surface, the low tracking across Canada should track from Ontario to Quebec to the Maritimes/St.
Lawrence Valley through the period. The trailing cold front should cross eastern KY during the day on Saturday. The colder air will gradually move in with 850 mb temperatures progged to drop below 0C from north to south from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. The 850 mb temperatures continue to drop as the shortwave moves through the region and should be in the -10C to -15C range by around dawn on Sunday.

Moisture with the shortwave is generally progged to be not only deeper in the far north with a more ideal but rather brief max in omega within the DGZ. Not only is QPF anticipated to a bit higher there but also snow ratios should be higher for a longer duration as compared to areas further south in the winter weather advisory probably due to a bit more upper level jet dynamics/forcing. Some of the limiting factors to snow ratios and snow amounts on the southern end of the advisory are a warmer column. Also there, although there will be some omega in the DGZ, the more significant omega in the DGZ will be briefer and a secondary max in the warmer clouds nearer to the surface is progged in the GFS and NAM.
There will also be some stronger winds aloft which could fracture dendrites a bit. The high resolution convective allowing models are also lighter with amounts thus far with the global models more solidly in advisory range in the north and east in line with the current forecast. There is also an upslope component with this event as well and increasing lower level lapse rates should make snow in the second half of Saturday night more showery in nature and that part of the event should have some omega near or within the DGZ. Overall, if snow ratios were to end up a little lower areawide or in the south, eventual snowfall could fall a little under the current forecast in all or some of the advisory area. Despite the uncertainty in the snowfall forecast, the falling temperatures into and through the 20s and to the teens should contribute to travel concerns as untreated surfaces may freeze. Thus, opted to issue a winter weather advisory from Powell through Breathitt to Letcher Counties and points to the north and east even though the southern portions of the advisory area should be lower end of criteria.

Temperatures are progged to drop into mainly the 10 to 20F range by late Saturday night. Northwest winds Wind chills should near or reach the single digits in many locations late Saturday night and could fall as low as a couple of degrees below 0F in a few spots in the west from Fleming County south to Pulaski county. In that area these wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

Sunday opens with a deep 510-dm low centered over Southeastern Ontario and Southern Quebec. Its trough axis extends back west- southwest, with frontogenetic forcing expected to produce snow showers along a line extending through the Northeast US, back through the Appalachian, including portions of Eastern Kentucky. By morning, light snow showers and flurries might remain across Southeast Kentucky, with cold Arctic air. Morning temperatures may be in the single digits north of the I-64 corridor, with low teens in south.
Apparent Temperatures (Wind Chill), will be in the single digits across the area, with coldest values around and north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures in these areas will feel as cold as 5 below zero.

Cold Arctic air continues to be re-enforced from the northwest through the day. High temperatures will be a shock to the system, only reaching the mid to upper teens north of the Hal-Rogers-KY-80 Parkway, and low to mid 20s in areas south. Winds will be light out of the northwest, 5-10 mph, with gusts 15-20 mph. Temperatures will feel like they're 10-15 degrees through the day.

High pressure begins to build back into the area Sunday night. This will lead mostly clear skies, light and variable winds, and cold overnight lows in the single digits. As high pressure continues to build back into the region on Monday, temperatures warm into the low 30s near the Mountain Parkway, and mid to upper 30s south of the Hal- Rogers/KY-80 Parkway. Monday night temperatures will likely cool into the teens and low 20s.

Under somewhat zonal flow, conditions should be quiet through the better part of Wednesday, with the warming trend continuing through Thursday, highs could climb into the mid to upper 50s. A trough amplifies heading into Thursday, leading to an increase in POP chances through the day. P-type looks likely to be rain at this time. Models diverge Friday, but the overall trend looks like rain showers should be tapering off early as the Thursday system exits the area.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025

Dense fog and freezing fog, due to stratus build down and/or where there has been some snowmelt will impact TAF locations such as KJKL, KLOZ, KSJS, and KSME at times through 14Z. Low clouds at IFR or lower will also hold on at all sites and nearby ridgetop locations into dawn. Some small improvement can be expected into the afternoon, even as a cold front nears and moves across eastern Kentucky, with some MVFR and IFR reductions lingering in the northern portions of the area through the end of the period. Snow is also forecast to develop in the more northern locations before the end of the day, and this could affect KSYM after about 23Z. Generally, light and variable winds are expected through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.