Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 1141 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

Blended late evening obs into the forecast, without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

With low clouds dried up in the far northwestern counties of the JKL forecast area, and mainly thin high clouds expected overnight, low temperatures were revised slightly downward. However, the slight change would allow for more frost potential, and an advisory was issued for that area.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

The latest surface analysis reveals a surface low tracking across Ohio, with a trailing cold front sagging through eastern Kentucky this afternoon. While showers have begun to develop across northeastern portions of the CWA, lingering dry air in the low levels may limit these to mere sprinkles. Temperatures across the region have climbed into the mid 60s; however, areas behind the boundary are already experiencing post-frontal CAA, with values falling into the upper 50s.

Through the remainder of the afternoon, the front will swing through the CWA, bringing sprinkles or light showers primarily to areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Once the front exits Friday afternoon, surface high pressure will build into the region and remain dominant through the end of the period. High temperatures on Friday are progged to range from the lower to upper 60s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid 30s across the north and the mid 40s near the Tennessee border. Based on todays HiRes/CAMs suite, if significant clearing occurs across the northern counties, isolated instances of frost will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly north of the I-64 corridor. Due to this threat, an SPS was issued for Fleming, Rowan, Elliott, Bath, and Montgomery counties.

Behind the front, surface high pressure will continue to build, but the region will remain under a persistent CAA regime, keeping temperatures cool for Saturday. Highs are progged to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the CWA High pressure will maintain dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover. This combination of clearing skies, light winds, and CAA will allow for sub-freezing temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially within sheltered valleys. Consequently, a Freeze Watch was issued this afternoon to cover both sub-freezing temperatures and expected frost development.
It is highly encouraged that gardeners, farmers, and other stakeholders take necessary precautions ahead of the cold temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning.

In summary, the period is characterized by a passing cold front bringing isolated sprinkle or light rain chances today, specifically for northern and northeastern portions of the CWA High pressure returns late tonight, ushering in a cooler air mass with a frost threat tonight and a more significant freeze threat Saturday night.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

The period is expected to begin with troughing from eastern Canada into the eastern Conus while an upper level ridge axis should extended from into the Four Corners and and parts of the Great Basin.
Further west an upper level low is expected to be meandering to the west of the CA coastline. This will leave northwest flow in place from the Plains to the OH Valley to the eastern seaboard. Initially a shortwave is expected to be moving across the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley vicinity with yet another shortwave upstream of that trekking across the MT/WY to Dakotas area. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is progged to be in place from the Southern Plains/TX to the OH and TN Valleys. Further upstream an area of low pressure should be tracking across Ontario with a trailing front into the upper mS Valley to portions of the Plains to Rockies.

Sunday to Monday night, the region will begin in northwest to westerly flow aloft with a shortwaves tracking across the Great Lakes and OH Valley late Sunday night to Monday. The upper flow should become more westerly and eventually southwesterly as an upper level low evolves over Manitoba and into Ontario and a trough begins to take shaper over parts of the Central Conus/Upper MS Valley to northern Plains. At the same time, the sfc low in Canada should move into Quebec with the trailing front working into the eastern Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to OK/Southern Plains. Moisture and instability with the shortwaves crossing the area late Sunday night to Monday, so only isolated to scattered pops were carried to begin the period.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, the upper level trough will shift into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley with one or more preceding shortwaves Wed and Wed night. An associated cold front should cross the area at mid week with a secondary front approaching late Wednesday night. Moisture will be more abundant with this front and pending the timing, enough instability and shear could exist for a few strong storms. Some variations of 00Z AI ENS and GEFS based Convective guidance has some lower end probabilities Tuesday or Wednesday. Chances for showers and some storms peak during this timeframe, generally from Tuesday evening to Wednesday night.

The upper level trough axis is progged to move east of the area for Thursday into Friday, with west to northwest flow aloft returning.
The secondary boundary should pass eastern KY on Friday with sfc high pressure building into the OH Valley. Colder air returns behind the fronts. However, additional shortwaves in this flow should result in rounds of clouds and small chances for showers at times and this should be a limiting factor for how cold low temperatures should get for Thursday night.

Although some very light QPF is possible where isolated to scattered convection occurs late Sunday night to midday Tuesday, more widespread, meaningful rainfall is anticipated from late Tuesday to Wednesday night along and in advance of the mid week cold front.
Probabilities from the 00Z LREF are roughly a 50 to 70 percent for 1 inch or more of rainfall over the next week with nearly all of this likely to fall Tuesday night to Wednesday night. Rainfall of this magnitude should help to keep drought status nearly steady across eastern KY.

Following the cold start on Sunday, temperatures should moderate back into the 60s for Sunday, with even milder temperatures for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the mid week cold front. Colder temperatures are then forecast to settle across the Commonwealth for mid to late week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind are forecast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106-108-111.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-086>088-104-106>120.