Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfair, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming and drying trend is expected this weekend with temperatures rising to above average.

2. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

3. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins early next week.

DISCUSSION
As a shortwave ridge builds into the west coast, a warming and drying trend is expected for the region through this weekend, where afternoon highs in the mid 80's can be expected for the Valley and desert regions of our CWA Along with this warming, RH's are expected to dry significantly, especially in the Mojave Desert, with values in the 5-10% range through Monday, though the driest afternoon is expected to be tomorrow. And while we may see some slightly elevated winds, the fire risk is expected to remain low due to high fuel moisture.

Looking to early next week, a cut-off low pressure system is expected to move through California by Tuesday morning, bringing chances for precipitation to the region, mainly in the mountains and the foothills, and possible light rainfall for the Valley. There is also the possibility for excessive rainfall in the Foothills as the Weather Prediction Center as an at least 5% chance for those areas north of Tulare County. This cut- off isn't expected to be particularly cold, so snow levels are expected to be around 7000-8000 feet as the system passes through. Current probabilities for a foot of snow is 40-60% north of Kings Canyon. This system is also expected to cause strong winds on the leeward side of the Sierra Nevada and into the Mojave Desert Slopes. Probabilities for 65 mph gusts are 40 to 55% for Tuesday when the cut-off is expected to move through.
This cut- off will also lead to cooling temperatures, and by Wednesday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees below normal in the Valley.

Next weekend, a possible second system may brush by our area by next Saturday, which may bring additional precipitation to the mountainous regions of Fresno County and northwards, with probabilities for 0.01 inches of rainfall at 30 to 50% by Monday, April 27th. The Climate Prediction center also has our region under leaning above normal for precipitation for both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, so another late season system may be possible even as we approach our dry summer.


AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.



CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.