DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

An area of upper level low pressure will expand to our west today, then translate slowly eastward across the area thru the weekend. This will gradually uptick daily pops, especially during the peak heating hours. Little shear exists, so peak heating/most unstable air mass storms will pose a slow moving/heavy rain and potentially localized flooding hazard as the primary storm associated impact.

The pattern transitions next week as the low drifts further eastward and upper level ridging begins to approach from the west. As a result, highs in the 80s this weekend through Monday, return into the 90s Tuesday and beyond. Dew points take a similar turn, from the lower half 70s into the mid and upper 70s. This stuffy air will produce heat indices in the triple digits and possibly reach Advisory thresholds around 105 or better, particularly Tuesday-Thursday. Height falls across the Ohio Valley may get us into or under the influence of another trof by the end of the week into next weekend, but confidence is lower on the particulars of that occurring/how much of an influence that becomes.

We did lower night-time pops a little from the NBM but maintained fairly high pops for the daytime, blending collaboratively.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Patchy fog will offer potential restrictions to vsbys early, then daytime shower/storm chances offer the next potential for flight restrictions, particularly this afternoon. As confidence in storm placement modeling increases, some such inclusion may arise in the terminal forecast. And where rain does occur will increase repeat patchy fog/restricting vsby chances again tonight as well.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.